WI: Charles of Hungary died during his invasion of Serbia?

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Deleted member 67076

Inspired by Petikes thread. So in 1336 Hungary was at war with the HRE and Serbia. Due to that, they attacked what they believed was the weaker target and while initially successful, became bogged down and the targets of Serbian guerilla warfare. The Serbian raids were very dangerous for the Hungarians, at one point getting Charles injured by an arrow and forcing him to pull out.

But what if that arrow had killed him? What would happen to the wars in Hungary? Would Stefan Dusan move back into Bosnia and take the Banate, maybe even raiding Croatia? The Wallachia's, who hated their vassalage and frequently rebelled; would they be emboldened to strike back once more? Would the HRE be more successful in its invasion? Would other nations try to jump in on the dogpile? Venice had been eyeing Dalmatia for a very long time... Finally, what happens in the home front? Charles' son is 10 years old and his rule had embittered quite a few nobles, as weakened as there were. Does this mean civil war would break out? Or an attempted coup?
 
What would happen to the wars in Hungary? Would Stefan Dusan move back into Bosnia and take the Banate, maybe even raiding Croatia?

After such a major stroke of luck, Dusan basically has three options: move into Bosnia; Attack north into Hungary, where potential allies are scarce and potential territorial gains unreliable and hard to defend; or fail to exploit a hostile King's death in any meaningful way, which is unacceptable to any monarch with a sliver of ambition and his wits about him.
So yeah, I also thing he'd attack the Banate of Bosnia.

Without a stable Hungarian ally the Banate's chances don't look very good. Judging by his previous handling of similar situations, Dusan would annex the disputed region of Hum (modern Herzegovina), and the rest stays Bosnia - but as a Serbian puppet with a ruler handpicked by Dusan. There are several possible candidates for the puppet Ban of Bosnia but the most sensible one might be Vladislav Nikolic, lord of Popovo Polje. He was descended from a junior male branch of Serbia's Nemanjic dynasty, but also from the Kotromanic rulers of Bosnia through his mother, and had connections in both countries.

Whether Vladislav would rule central Bosnia as an official Serbian vassal or a less provocative unofficial puppet depends on how (un)stable and weak Hungary is by the end of Dusan's Bosnian campaign.
The Wallachia's, who hated their vassalage and frequently rebelled; would they be emboldened to strike back once more?

Wasn't Wallachia already de facto independent and free of any vassal obligations by 1336?
Would other nations try to jump in on the dogpile?

Venice would certainly welcome the new opportunities provided by Hungary's destabilization.

Another interesting possibility is Mladen Subic of Croatia. His family, once overseers of a large chunk of Croatia in the name of the Hungarian King, was crushed by King Charles, Bosnia, and the petty Croatian nobles 16 years before the PoD, but Mladen III dreamed of restoring their former power. In fact, in 1336 he had just finished his first successful revenge campaign against one of the houses who helped bring the Subic family down. Now that his most dangerous long-time enemy (King Charles) is out of the picture, Mladen can try to take control of Croatia and ally with Venice, or a rival claimant to the Hungarian throne (Charles' son is 10 year old and all, someone's bound to challenge him).
 

Deleted member 67076

After such a major stroke of luck, Dusan basically has three options: move into Bosnia; Attack north into Hungary, where potential allies are scarce and potential territorial gains unreliable and hard to defend; or fail to exploit a hostile King's death in any meaningful way, which is unacceptable to any monarch with a sliver of ambition and his wits about him.
So yeah, I also thing he'd attack the Banate of Bosnia.

Without a stable Hungarian ally the Banate's chances don't look very good. Judging by his previous handling of similar situations, Dusan would annex the disputed region of Hum (modern Herzegovina), and the rest stays Bosnia - but as a Serbian puppet with a ruler handpicked by Dusan. There are several possible candidates for the puppet Ban of Bosnia but the most sensible one might be Vladislav Nikolic, lord of Popovo Polje. He was descended from a junior male branch of Serbia's Nemanjic dynasty, but also from the Kotromanic rulers of Bosnia through his mother, and had connections in both countries.
Would the Bosnians readily accept a Serbian backed ruler? Also, what would be Serbian policy to the newly conquered Bosnians?

Whether Vladislav would rule central Bosnia as an official Serbian vassal or a less provocative unofficial puppet depends on how (un)stable and weak Hungary is by the end of Dusan's Bosnian campaign.
Well from what wiki tells me the Hungarian nobles detested the reforms of Charles I but were too weak to challenge him. I suppose now with him dead and his son a minor they make make a claim for power and back a rival even though they'd be much weaker than before.

Wasn't Wallachia already de facto independent and free of any vassal obligations by 1336?
Unfortunately I don't know of Wallachian history to comment. I only found a passing reference to vassalage in the late 1330s while reading up on Stefan Dusan's Serbia.

Venice would certainly welcome the new opportunities provided by Hungary's destabilization.
You think they could sweep in and take the rest of Dalmatia?

Another interesting possibility is Mladen Subic of Croatia. His family, once overseers of a large chunk of Croatia in the name of the Hungarian King, was crushed by King Charles, Bosnia, and the petty Croatian nobles 16 years before the PoD, but Mladen III dreamed of restoring their former power. In fact, in 1336 he had just finished his first successful revenge campaign against one of the houses who helped bring the Subic family down. Now that his most dangerous long-time enemy (King Charles) is out of the picture, Mladen can try to take control of Croatia and ally with Venice, or a rival claimant to the Hungarian throne (Charles' son is 10 year old and all, someone's bound to challenge him).
Interesting, so Croatia effectively regains its independence. Would it still pay lip service to the Hungarian king or claim full independence while Hungary undergoes civil war?
 
Would the Bosnians readily accept a Serbian backed ruler? Also, what would be Serbian policy to the newly conquered Bosnians?

They might not be outright enthusiastic about the whole thing, but if the new ruler (technically Serbian or not) is someone who already had connections and a place in Bosnia's power structures, he shouldn't find consolidating his position too hard.

Vladislav Nikolic would probably be expected to promote Orthodoxy, but who knows how much carrot versus stick would there be in his policy towards the Bogumils.
Well from what wiki tells me the Hungarian nobles detested the reforms of Charles I but were too weak to challenge him. I suppose now with him dead and his son a minor they make make a claim for power and back a rival even though they'd be much weaker than before.

Makes sense. Would John Luxembourg of Bohemia be that rival?
Unfortunately I don't know of Wallachian history to comment. I only found a passing reference to vassalage in the late 1330s while reading up on Stefan Dusan's Serbia.

I don't know much either, but I remember reading that Wallachia had 14 years of more or less complete independence from Hungary after King Charles narrowly avoided being turned into a human pincushion (I'm seeing a pattern here) at Posada.
You think they could sweep in and take the rest of Dalmatia?

I believe they could take at least a few more ports. They didn't seem to have any trouble even when Charles was alive.
Interesting, so Croatia effectively regains its independence. Would it still pay lip service to the Hungarian king or claim full independence while Hungary undergoes civil war?

It's not like Mladen Subic can randomly crown himself King. Well, he could, but at this stage it would do more harm than good to his cause.

I think he'd pay lip service to the King who isn't Louis (John of Bohemia?). Of course, this King would need to concede de facto control of Croatia to Subic, but that shouldn't be too hard. Whoever challenges Louis will need to visibly NOT be like Charles (the hyper centralizing enemy of the aristocracy) and make a number of concessions to nobles anyway.

And I'm not sure how the issue of Slavonia, whose own Ban is a staunch loyalist to Charles and Louis, would be resolved.
 
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Deleted member 67076

They might not be outright enthusiastic about the whole thing, but if the new ruler (technically Serbian or not) is someone who already had connections and a place in Bosnia's power structures, he shouldn't find consolidating his position too hard.

Vladislav Nikolic would probably be expected to promote Orthodoxy, but who knows how much carrot versus stick would there be in his policy towards the Bogumils.
Awesome. Well, the Bogumils were on the decline at that point, so I think the real problem

Makes sense. Would John Luxembourg of Bohemia be that rival?
Wiki tells me he wanted the throne, possibly to defend against the Hapsburgs. The fact he's blind at that point might be a problem, but judging by his personality it wouldn't surprise me if he invaded afterwords to stake his claim.

I don't know much either, but I remember reading that Wallachia had 14 years of more or less complete independence from Hungary after King Charles narrowly avoided being turned into a human pincushion (I'm seeing a pattern here) at Posada.
Wow. Thats... amazing.

I believe they could take at least a few more ports. They didn't seem to have any trouble even when Charles was alive.
Perhaps they could ally with the Croatians, giving Subic support in exchange for more ports and islands?

It's not like Mladen Subic can randomly crown himself King. Well, he could, but at this stage it would do more harm than good to his cause.

I think he'd pay lip service to the King who isn't Louis (John of Bohemia?). Of course, this King would need to concede de facto control of Croatia to Subic, but that shouldn't be too hard. Whoever challenges Louis will need to visibly NOT be like Charles (the hyper centralizing enemy of the aristocracy) and make a number of concessions to nobles anyway.
Ah, ok.

And I'm not sure how the issue of Slavonia, whose own Ban is a staunch loyalist to Charles and Louis, would be resolved.
Invasion by Croatia, Venice and/or Bohemia?
 
Considering Dušan was a relative of Mladen and the Serbians have before sent aid to the widow of Juraj Šubić when she resisted Charles in Knin. It would not be beyond belief Dušan might restore his cousins (and close ones at that) to their former power just bound to him and to be used as balance against the Hungarians in Slavonia and Venice on the Adriatic.
 
Awesome. Well, the Bogumils were on the decline at that point, so I think the real problem

True, but...what was the real problem? I guess a part of that sentence was accidentally lost.
Wiki tells me he wanted the throne, possibly to defend against the Hapsburgs. The fact he's blind at that point might be a problem, but judging by his personality it wouldn't surprise me if he invaded afterwords to stake his claim.

Blindness certainly didn't make him overly cautious in OTL.
Perhaps they could ally with the Croatians, giving Subic support in exchange for more ports and islands?
Invasion by Croatia, Venice and/or Bohemia?

Sounds good.

All in all it's a pretty interesting PoD with many consequences for Europe in general. Were you planning to write a TL?
 
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Considering Dušan was a relative of Mladen and the Serbians have before sent aid to the widow of Juraj Šubić when she resisted Charles in Knin. It would not be beyond belief Dušan might restore his cousins (and close ones at that) to their former power just bound to him and to be used as balance against the Hungarians in Slavonia and Venice on the Adriatic.

Mladen only married Dušan's sister in 1347 didn't he? Still, the same ties can easily be established in this scenario, and at an earlier date, too. So Mladen doesn't die of the plague in record time and his coalition with Dušan can actually see some action.
 
If I am not mistaken Dušan's grandmother was Šubić and one of his aunts was married into the Šubić family.
 
Dušan's grandmother is some noblewoman called Jelena and no one apparently knows anything about her except her first name (I definitely don't). Was she actually Šubić?

As for his aunt, you're right, but it's actually not his father's sister; it's a daughter of King Dragutin, his grandfather's brother. Dragutin spent his last years in an on-again off-again civil war with Dušan's grandfather and his heir fought Dušan's father for the throne. So blood relations through that branch of the dynasty wouldn't carry much in the way of love and closeness.
 

Deleted member 67076

True, but...what was the real problem? I guess a part of that sentence was accidentally lost.
Whoops. The Real problem would have been the northern Catholics who had ties to Croatia. I am not sure accept a king with ties to the Orthodox church.

All in all it's a pretty interesting PoD with many consequences for Europe in general. Were you planning to write a TL?
Yes. I wanted to write one where Stefan Dusan doesn't intervene in the upcoming Byzantine Civil war of 1341-47 and I was hoping if a victory against the Hungarians could keep him occupied enough for a couple years via the necessary investment in Bosnia and against any Hungarian attempts to reclaim influence.
 
They might not be outright enthusiastic about the whole thing, but if the new ruler (technically Serbian or not) is someone who already had connections and a place in Bosnia's power structures, he shouldn't find consolidating his position too hard.

Vladislav Nikolic would probably be expected to promote Orthodoxy, but who knows how much carrot versus stick would there be in his policy towards the Bogumils.


Makes sense. Would John Luxembourg of Bohemia be that rival?


I don't know much either, but I remember reading that Wallachia had 14 years of more or less complete independence from Hungary after King Charles narrowly avoided being turned into a human pincushion (I'm seeing a pattern here) at Posada.


I believe they could take at least a few more ports. They didn't seem to have any trouble even when Charles was alive.


It's not like Mladen Subic can randomly crown himself King. Well, he could, but at this stage it would do more harm than good to his cause.

I think he'd pay lip service to the King who isn't Louis (John of Bohemia?). Of course, this King would need to concede de facto control of Croatia to Subic, but that shouldn't be too hard. Whoever challenges Louis will need to visibly NOT be like Charles (the hyper centralizing enemy of the aristocracy) and make a number of concessions to nobles anyway.

And I'm not sure how the issue of Slavonia, whose own Ban is a staunch loyalist to Charles and Louis, would be resolved.
John of Bohemia would first try to conquer Poland, now that Wladyslaw the Elbowhigh lost his ally on Charles of Anjou, John of Bohemia would try again to conquer Poland now that Wladyslaw the Elbowhigh is now more weaker with Teutonic help.
 

Deleted member 67076

John of Bohemia would first try to conquer Poland, now that Wladyslaw the Elbowhigh lost his ally on Charles of Anjou, John of Bohemia would try again to conquer Poland now that Wladyslaw the Elbowhigh is now more weaker with Teutonic help.

Why Poland? Its much farther from your power base than Hungary and a lesser prize too.
 

Deleted member 67076

He has a claim to the Polish throne via his wife, Elisabeth.
Be that as it may the Hungary is still a much better target. Also, wiki informs me that Wladyslaw has been dead for 3 years at the time of the POD.
 
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