WI: Charles Martel, son of Andrew of Hungary and Joanna of Naples lives

Apparently, Andrew, younger brother of Louis I of Hungary and Joanna of Naples had a son who died early.

As I understand it, had he lived, he would have become the legal heir of not only Naples, but also of Hungary and Poland! Louis I had no sons, after all.

So let's say he grows up healthy and manages to claim all three of his realms. What are the consequences of such development? The Venetians wouldn't be happy, that's for sure!
 
Well, assuming Andrew has still been murdered, Louis I of Hungary should still be out for revenge. If he succeeds in taking over Naples, he might take Charles Martel under his wing a la Charles of Durazzo. More likely an unsatisfying stalemate is reached or any conquest is short-lived (historically, Naples is really easy to take, but you have to stay there in order to keep it).

In any case, it's an open question just who Charles Martel is succeeding, in what domains, and in what order (all of these are important). Because at the moment, none of these polities are exactly stable and all of them have alternative candidates who could easily snatch the throne. One might think Charles Martel will naturally succeed his mother in Naples at the very least, but Naples was a papal fief and Joanna had a rocky relationship with various popes during the Great Schism. Naples could be taken away from Joanna and given to Charles of Durazzo like OTL and there's not much Charles Martel can do about it besides conquer it once he's old enough.

Same deal with Hungary. Charles of Durazzo had been taken under Louis I's wing and if he was willing to usurp Louis's daughter OTL, there's nothing stopping him from usurping Louis's nephew ITTL. Now, it's unlikely Charles of Durazzo will be able to take both Naples and Hungary at the same time, but I can easily see him gunning for at least one, depending on who dies (or is dispossessed) and when.
 
Louis puts him instead of Charles of Durazzo on the Neapolitan throne. When Louis dies in late 1382, he succeeds him in Hungary. The Poles IOTL were willing to continue the personal union at first, so I don't think they would reject Charles Martel. Still, to further strengthen his claim to the Hungarian and Polish thrones, Charles could marry Louis' daughter, Mary (his cousin).
 
Well, assuming Andrew has still been murdered, Louis I of Hungary should still be out for revenge. If he succeeds in taking over Naples, he might take Charles Martel under his wing a la Charles of Durazzo. More likely an unsatisfying stalemate is reached or any conquest is short-lived (historically, Naples is really easy to take, but you have to stay there in order to keep it).
Louis did take Charles Martel under his wing IOTL. He arrived in Hungary in early 1348. He died a few months later. The POD is around that time.
In any case, it's an open question just who Charles Martel is succeeding, in what domains, and in what order (all of these are important). Because at the moment, none of these polities are exactly stable and all of them have alternative candidates who could easily snatch the throne. One might think Charles Martel will naturally succeed his mother in Naples at the very least, but Naples was a papal fief and Joanna had a rocky relationship with various popes during the Great Schism. Naples could be taken away from Joanna and given to Charles of Durazzo like OTL and there's not much Charles Martel can do about it besides conquer it once he's old enough.
Joanna would overthrown by his own son in this scenario. Charles Martel would ascend to the throne of Naples in the same way Charles of Durazzo did IOTL. Maybe Durazzo could accompany him to the campaign and remain there as Martel's viceroy once he returns to take the Crown of Hungary (and Poland).
Same deal with Hungary. Charles of Durazzo had been taken under Louis I's wing and if he was willing to usurp Louis's daughter OTL, there's nothing stopping him from usurping Louis's nephew ITTL.
I'm not so sure about that. Many people were upset by woman rule, especially because it was the Mother Queen who actually ruled instead of Mary. Such kind of dissatisfaction wouldn't exist ITTL. Furthermore, ITTL Charles of Durazzo wouldn't be the senior male of the Anjous, so he wouldn't have any legitimacy to base his claim on.
Now, it's unlikely Charles of Durazzo will be able to take both Naples and Hungary at the same time, but I can easily see him gunning for at least one, depending on who dies (or is dispossessed) and when.
Please, just indulge me and consider Charles of Durazzo loyal to Charles Martel.
 
Please, just indulge me and consider Charles of Durazzo loyal to Charles Martel.
I don't see why Carlo of Durazzo would ever think otherwise (at least until Lajos the Great dies)
Still, to further strengthen his claim to the Hungarian and Polish thrones, Charles could marry Louis' daughter, Mary (his cousin).
if Mary is born on schedule, it seems more likely that Carlo Martello marries Giovanna, Duchess of Durazzo (as he was apparently supposed to) or perhaps his mom goes for an Aragonese bride for him (the OTL Condesa d'Ampurias), given she betrothed her daughter, Caterina, to Juan I of Aragon. I wouldn't rule out Lajos going with a Luxembourg or Wittelsbach bride for him either. Carlo Martello and whoever he marries then has a son who marries Mary. It seems "unlikely" to me that Carlo Martello would stay unwed until the 1380s (we can always have him and his first wife be childless and he marries Mary as a second wife)
 
if Mary is born on schedule, it seems more likely that Carlo Martello marries Giovanna, Duchess of Durazzo (as he was apparently supposed to) or perhaps his mom goes for an Aragonese bride for him (the OTL Condesa d'Ampurias), given she betrothed her daughter, Caterina, to Juan I of Aragon. I wouldn't rule out Lajos going with a Luxembourg or Wittelsbach bride for him either. Carlo Martello and whoever he marries then has a son who marries Mary. It seems "unlikely" to me that Carlo Martello would stay unwed until the 1380s (we can always have him and his first wife be childless and he marries Mary as a second wife)
Somehow I managed to completely ignore the age gap between them ^^"
By Giovanna, you mean her? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joanna,_Duchess_of_Durazzo
Such match would tie Charles of Durazzo to Martel and it would probably improve Martel's position in Naples too. Am I correct to assume that?

What kind of opportunities could the personal union of Naples, Hungary and Poland provide? Could we see this vast empire invest into its naval/maritime capabilities? If yes, what would that mean for the relations with the Venetians and the Ottomans?
 
Such match would tie Charles of Durazzo to Martel and it would probably improve Martel's position in Naples too. Am I correct to assume that?
well, aside from Giovanna's hatred for her sister (son-in-law's mother), I imagine it would do nicely.

What kind of opportunities could the personal union of Naples, Hungary and Poland provide?
I'd start getting very nervous if I were the Luxemburgs (all I'm saying), after all, the whole argument for the Sigismund-Mary marriage of OTL was because the Luxemburg lands in Brandenburg were right next door to Poland and Bohemia was basically surrounded on three sides by Anjou lands
 
This actually is an interesting POD that I don't think I've seen explored here. However, instead of focusing solely on a theoredical Naples-Hungary-Poland union (which is highly improbable, BTW), I think we'd need to start a the beginning;

1. What is the exact POD? Obviously its Charles Martel surviving, but how? I think the easiest POD would be for Joanna I to take her son with her when she fled to Provence in 1348, rather than leave him behind. Either that, or for some reason Lajos I decides to leave the toddler in Naples (as it was his transfer to cold Hungary that caused his death). As I can't see a reason for Lajos to decide to leave a valuable hostage in Naples, the former is easier.

2. We need to address the vast effects a surviving Charles Martel will have on his mother's reign. From his death in 1348 until Joanna's murder in 1382, her reign was in a near constant succession crisis that more or less caused the constant crises she experienced, especially after the death of her last daughter Françoise in 1352. With a stable succession and a guaranteed male heir, the various shenanigans that dominated the Neapolitan court after 1352 likely don't happen , or are much weaker. These included the revolts of Louis of Durazzo, the problems over the marriages of Joanna's nieces and heiress presumptives, and the eventual issues of Charles of Gravina-Durazzo. Hell, a surviving Charles Martel could easily butterfly Joanna's third and fourth marriages to Jaume IV of Majorca and Otto von Braunschweig-Grubenhagen (Joanna only married the unstable Jaume IV in the hope of producing a new heir, though the fourth marriage was successful enough and might still happen).

3. My next question is Charles's marriage. In OTL he was betrothed to his cousin Jeanne of Durazzo, his first cousin and daughter of Joanna's sister Maria. However, in OTL Jeanne proved to be barren (her marriages to Louis of Navarre and Robert IV d'Eu were both childless), which would be a major problem. So the butterflies would need to make her fertile somehow, find Joanna an excuse to break the engagement or kill her young and replace her with her sister Agnes (except Agnes too was childless OTL). The only one of the Durazzo sisters to produce children was Marguerite, the youngest and the OTL wife of Charles of Durazzo. For the sake of the succession, the bet is a fertile Jeanne or some kind of fallout over between the royal sisters causing a breakoff of the engagement in favor of a different bride. I think a good replacement bride would be a daughter of Jean II of France; either a surviving Agnes or Marguerite de Valois or Isabelle, OTL Comtesse de Vertus.

4. With a more stable Naples, I wonder what effects this would have on the Neapolitan ambitions in Sicily and in Albania. OTL Joanna I and her second husband Louis conquered much of Sicily during the disastrous reign of Louis I 'the Child, before a lack of supplies and continued strife between the Neapolitan royal couple led to their defeat. Considering the tensions continued under his brother Frederick III/IV 'the Simple' (regnal number is still disputed), and it wasn't until 1372 that Joanna acknowledged the loss of Sicily (in the Treaty of Villeneuve), I could see Charles taking up his mother's cause and leading a renewed campaign in the mid 1360s. This could end the conquest of the Kingdom, or perhaps a later forced union between one of his sons and Frederick's only child Maria. Such a marriage would peacefully reunite the two realms.

As for Albania, his Durazzo cousins had a strong claim to that kingdom-realm (Durazzo was a duchy centered on the modern Albanian city of Durrës), and made several attempts to make good on their claims. The last, and semi-successful, was the campaign of his cousin Jeanne and her husband Louis in the 1370s, only for Louis to die shortly after and the city itself to fall in 1385. So again, the possibility is there for the Neapolitans to hold Durazzo and expand the Duchy into Albania proper. Though that might go better with a fertile Jeanne marrying Charles.

5. Hungary-Poland. I know that @Fehérvári is most interested in a Naples-Hungary-Poland union, but that's basically ASB. The ability to govern such a massive realm in the middle ages was nonexistent. You could get a Naples-Hungary or a Hungary-Poland, but not all three. For the succession to Lajo's realms, the easiest solution would be for Charles Martel to have several sons, and for the second or third to marry a surviving Catherine of Hungary (the oldest daughter of Lajos who died young). Together the two inherit Hungary-Poland. Or have Catherine die OTL, and Charles's younger son marry Mary of Hungary, with her sister inheriting Poland like OTL. I think this is the much more likely scenario.
 
well, aside from Giovanna's hatred for her sister (son-in-law's mother), I imagine it would do nicely.


I'd start getting very nervous if I were the Luxemburgs (all I'm saying), after all, the whole argument for the Sigismund-Mary marriage of OTL was because the Luxemburg lands in Brandenburg were right next door to Poland and Bohemia was basically surrounded on three sides by Anjou lands

I think Luxembourg support will be fully behind Polish anti-Angevin faction and with treaties which gave Angevins Polish throne broken (Poland was deprived of Red Ruthenia by Louis I when the treaties stipulated that it should remain with Poland if Louis became king) I kinda see Bohemian-Hungarian war over Polish succesion (Sigismund of Luxembourg is heir to Casimir of Słupsk's claim to Poland and while he never pressed that claim IOTL, ITTL he is only rallying point towards any opposition against Angevins in Poland, dukes of Mazovia will be smoothly destroyed by Hungarians if they tried to rebel, Sigismund - not as easily.
 
Would he try to forge them into one kingdom or rule them seperately?
The sea, the Carpathians and the cultural divide would make that pretty much impossible, imo. Naples being a Papal fief would also cause problems.
I think Luxembourg support will be fully behind Polish anti-Angevin faction and with treaties which gave Angevins Polish throne broken (Poland was deprived of Red Ruthenia by Louis I when the treaties stipulated that it should remain with Poland if Louis became king) I kinda see Bohemian-Hungarian war over Polish succesion (Sigismund of Luxembourg is heir to Casimir of Słupsk's claim to Poland and while he never pressed that claim IOTL, ITTL he is only rallying point towards any opposition against Angevins in Poland, dukes of Mazovia will be smoothly destroyed by Hungarians if they tried to rebel, Sigismund - not as easily.
What if Charles Martel has no children living to adulthood, Sigismund still marries Mary and the two of them get designated as Charles Martel's official successors? (Kinda like the Habsburg-Jagiellonian treaty.)

Would this keep the Luxemburgs docile? Also, could Sigismund and Mary actually pull off succeeding Charles Martel in all of his realms? Could the emerging threat of the Ottomans make the Neapolitans willing to remain part of such polity?
 
What if Charles Martel has no children living to adulthood, Sigismund still marries Mary and the two of them get designated as Charles Martel's official successors? (Kinda like the Habsburg-Jagiellonian treaty.)

Well if they hoped to be named (or were named) Charles Martel's heirs I think they would not act against him. I think it (being able to pull "universal succesion" after CM ganks it) depends on whether they would be married prior to his death or not and on whether Hedwig would be married before his death or not.

The sea, the Carpathians and the cultural divide would make that pretty much impossible, imo. Naples being a Papal fief would also cause problems

Maybe, but it doesn't mean that no one would try it. People often are very, very stupid and there is no guarantee all monarchs will be sane or smart enough to realize this after Martel.
 
Would this keep the Luxemburgs docile? Also, could Sigismund and Mary actually pull off succeeding Charles Martel in all of his realms? Could the emerging threat of the Ottomans make the Neapolitans willing to remain part of such polity?
Naples will be the problem. There was a papal decree passed under the Hohenstaufens already that said that Naples and the "Italian" Crown couldn't be held by the same person. AFAIK the only persons who successfully pulled it off were Karl V and Karl VI. The former Julius II, Leo X, Clement VII, all the way down to Paul IV, were anti-Habsburg encirclement as much as what France was, and encouraged Louis XII and François I in their ambitions to take the crown of Naples. With the latter, the papacy no longer had the room to object (or rather, nobody cared).

Now, Sigmund has the advantage that there are two popes and a church schism, but the problem comes in that (IIRC) Hungary, Poland and Naples all acknowledged the pope in Rome, while the pope in Avignon acknowledged the duc d'Anjou. The pope in Rome might accept it to avoid Hungary-Poland-Naples going over to Avignon, but it might not be so simple. Even if Rome does, Avignon might not and Anjou would be encouraged to do as he did/tried OTL. And there'll be Italian Wars a century earlier than OTL (which could be interesting in and of itself).

Fact is that the logistics are going to encourage rebellions in either Hungary (in favour of Hedwig and her Austrian husband- don't see Sigmund going for a Jogaila match for her TBH - or maybe Elisabeth of Bosnia pulls off the match with Louis d'Orléans), Bohemia/Germany (first in favour of Wenzel/Vaclav IV, then led by Jobst of Moravia/Rupert of the Palatinate/Ludwig of Bavaria-Ingolstadt - the "kingmaker" who only turned on Vaclav IV when the latter refused to enfeoff him as "duke of Milan", but who played a big role in the electioin of Rupert - only because the rest of the Wittelsbachs were pretty much all opposed to Ludwig - and who kept in good with both popes). In the Luxemburg possessions in the Low Countries, Philip of Burgundy then John the Fearless will be agitating. So, if Sigmund succeeds Carlo Martello in all his realms, he's going to turn into an uber-Karl V who's constantly running from fire to fire and not actually ruling.

Furthermore, the problem comes in if Mary has her accident and stillborn son as OTL (I know, it's a stretch, but work with me). What happens to Carlo Martello's lands? Sigmund is not the heir, but he ain't gonna just give it up - even if it's hard to hold - just because whoeer is the heir? asks nicely. So there'll be war.

As I say, he'll be the uber-Karl V where the sheer size of his empire makes alliances (France and the Ottomans of OTL) that would be called ASB, possible.
 
From the 2009 bio of Giovanna I, The Lady Queen:

There was therefore no need, in her [Elizabeth of Poland, Queen of Hungary's] mind, to adhere to the second stage of the original treaty, which stipulated that her eldest son, Louis, wed Joanna’s younger sister, Maria. To throw away Louis’ marriage prospects on the younger granddaughter of the king of faraway Naples, when he could be making a much more attractive regional alliance, represented a wasted opportunity and a violation of Hungarian interests. Even before her husband’s death, the queen mother had advocated that Louis be engaged instead to the daughter of the heir to the Bohemian throne. At Elizabeth’s insistence then, in the fall of 1342, Louis married Margaret, the seven- year- old princess of Bohemia.
Robert the Wise took this rejection of his granddaughter Maria as a direct slap at Angevin pride. On January 16, 1343, visibly near the end of his days and too weak to arise from his bed, but nonetheless “sound of mind and able to speak,” the king dictated his last will and testament. In the presence of witnesses he reconfirmed Joanna as his successor and sole heir to the throne of Naples, as well as to the rest of his far- flung empire (“Rex . . . instituit sibi haeredem universalem Joannam, ducissam Calabriae, meptem ejus primogenitam”), which the king of Naples listed as the countship of Provence, the sovereignty of Sicily, and the inherited title to Jerusalem, as well as overlordships in Piedmont and Forcalquier. If Joanna died childless, this im mense inheritance went directly to Maria, bypassing Andrew altogether. There was no mention of Andrew’s being crowned king, not even in an honorary fashion as consort. By this will, then, Andrew was very publicly excluded from rule or indeed from playing any role
what ever in his wife’s government.
To further punish the Hungarians, Robert the Wise also improved Maria’s standing at court. Should the long- contracted marriage between Joanna’s younger sister and Louis of Hungary fail to take place (an allusion to the union with Margaret of Bohemia), Maria was instead specifically instructed to wed the heir to the French throne, or, if he were not available, a younger brother of the French royal family. In recognition that the accomplishment of so brilliant an alliance as a match with the crown of France was likely to require further inducement, Robert made provision for Maria’s estate to be increased by a handsome bequest of lands, castles, men and vassals to the value of ten thousand florins.
 
out of curiosity, would Carlo Martello ever revive his dad's/uncle's claim as "Prince of Florence" either for himself or for his son?
I guess he would be already content with being able to hold Naples. Presenting any kind of claims on Florence would make any kind of goodwill left from the Roman Pope disappear. That would certainly mean trouble.
From the 2009 bio of Giovanna I, The Lady Queen
Fascinating, but how is this relevant to this thread?
 
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https://www.pinterest.com/pin/europe1350ref--447334175489662117/

If Charles can survive and coordinate his kingdoms, it may mean a serious check to the Holy Roman Empire as well as a means to stave off the looming threats to Byzantium. Russia's destiny may change as well. Given how Poland fared with the Black Plague, if Charles survives to command armies in its aftermath, there could be very serious butterflies.
As King of Naples (and possibly ruler of Achaea), Charles Martel would be no friend of the Byzantines, but an alternate Nicopolis might just be enough the reverse the trend of Ottoman expansion for the time being.
 
Fascinating, but how is this relevant to this thread?
sorry, busy reading the bio at the moment (thought it would be useful to look at the viper pit atmosphere that Carlo Martello would be born into/grow up in):

basically, Andrew was sidelined as "little more than a barbarian" during his lifetime. He was at court in a circle of Hungarians who were pointedly excluded/treated as outsiders by the "chic" Neapolitans. He was maligned as "short", "stunted", even "retarded", a "coward" (he was supposed to lead the final invasion of Sicily of Roberto's reign, but dithered and delayed). In letters by Petrarch and others, at seventeen, Andrew is referred to as a "boy", while Giovanna is always the "queen" or "Lady Giovanna". Nobody in Naples had a high opinion of Andrew (or the Hungarian match) - imagine someone calling Edward III a "boy" at 17, or Lajos the Great.

Andrew's mom made his situation worse. He didn't "mind" the mistreatment - or at least, was used to it - until Elizabeth of Poland got involved and started badgering the papacy that he was to be made of equal rank to Giovanna/break Robert's will. Worse was when Giovanna was ill for two months - and government in Naples ceased to function - in the summer of 1343/1344, Andrew tried to step in and provide some form of "authority" (it was when Aymeric de Chalus was papal legate of Naples, and Chalus wouldn't move without the pope's sayso, which meant that the government was paralyzed). After that Giovanna began to see him as a rival and petition the pope to block Andrew being considered as an equal. The papal bull declaring this arrived two days after Andrew was murdered. And had it not been for the interruption of his nurse/governess, Isabella, the murderers would've likely got away with it. Their plan was to put out as though someone in Andrew's circle had informed him of urgent news from Hungary or that his life was in danger, and he'd left Naples that way. But then got ambushed on the road and ended up murdered. Unfortunately, Isabella heard Andrew's screams (he was in his nightclothes and without even a paperknife to defend himself) as they murdered him and she got one of the guards to break the door to the gallery where he was murdered down in time to see them throwing his body over the balcony.

That said, there are three "factions" at the Neapolitan court at the time: the Hungarian (nominally headed by Andrew, but really by Elizabeth of Poland, Cardinal Colonna and Petrarch), the Taranto faction (headed by Catherine de Valois, Empress of Constantinople, Princess of Taranto, sister of Philippe VI of France) and the Durazzo faction (headed by Giovanna's sister, Maria and her husband). Around the time of Carlo Martello's birth, Petrarch was also slandering Giovanna as "light" and a "flirt", the usual accusations of adulterous behaviour (that would hound her all her life). Giovanna's "accomplices" were Robert and Louis of Taranto, Bertrand d'Artois (another cousin of Giovanna's, and Andrew's murderer), Roberto di Cabanni (mixed-race son of Giovanna's wetnurse, Philippa Catanese, and future Grand Seneschal of the Kingdom of Naples). So should Carlo Martello survive, there are more than enough persons who are going to assert illegitimacy. Taranto, Artois, Cabanni (and his daughter, Sancia, who was in waiting to Agnes de Perigord) were all involved in the death of Andrew. And all were subsequently "rewarded" with lands/moneys out of Dowager Queen Sancia's estate (originally earmarked for Santa Chiara and Santa Croce Churches and the Franciscan order).

So Lajos removing his nephew from the - even Petrarch calls it this - toxic atmosphere of Naples is probably a good idea. There are too many people who disliked the Hungarian faction at court. However, even if Lajos only removes him as far as Colonna-controlled Rome it would be an improvement. No need to take him all the way to Hungary.

That said, Carlo Martello is likely to be surrounded by the same Hungarians as his dad was in Naples/Rome, so his upbringing will be strongly influenced by that. Strongly influenced by the stories of his dad's murder (I wouldn't count it impossible that Isabella ends up as his nurse/governess as well. Philippa Catanese was nurse to Giovanna's dad, then to Giovanna and her sister, and Philippa's granddaughter, Sancia, wound up as nurse to one of the Durazzo children). Carlo Martello is also likely to be sidelined as much as his dad was, and hopefully Lajos will have learned from the murder of his brother (which was caused by Hungarian involvement) to "stay out of it" (aside from asserting his nephew's right to succeed his mom), not sure if that's ASB or not.
 
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