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Okay, so I know that the Battle of Tours is nowhere near as important as it's made out to be, but I've been wondering about what would happen in a timeline where the Arab raiders were victorious and Martel dies. I'm thinking of doing a timeline about this, so I thought I'd spitball some ideas. Feel free to add anything, I'm looking for help and feedback.

1) Without their father alive to protect them, his sons are likely to attract the attention of Martel's enemies. Someone older than Pepin could probably manage to take the position of Majordomo, but I doubt they would go as far as Pepin and overthrow the Merovingians. Thus, first major effect: The Merovingian government system continues to exist. The question here is how long the system can survive. Ideally I'd like to have it stick around for a while longer, since I like the idea of a European state with a shogunate like form of government.

2) Without Charles Martel and Pepin there's no Charlemagne. No Charlemagne has a lot of butterflies. Without Charlemagne it's likely that the Avars and Saxons continue to pester Western Europe. The Saxon in particular may be Christianized much later than OTL. Continuing paganism might draw them closer culturally to the Norse than to the Christian Germans. The Lombards continue to squabble with the Pope and the Asturians don't have the Frankish empire to help begin the reconquest. Finally, no Charlemagne means no Holy Roman Empire, and no controversy over the Western crown, for now anyway.

3) Without Martel, Pepin and Charlemagne the Frankish realm could very well collapse. The inheritance system was a shaky one, and in OTL Francia collapsed repeatedly shortly after strong rulers died. I see no reason for Martel's untimely demise to turn out any differently.

4) An Arab victory at Tours is mostly symbolic at this point, with their man power depleted and the supply lines drawn thin. But in a few decades the Ummayad Caliphate will become independent, and a past victory at Tours, as well as the weakened Francia that would result from no Charlemagne, may convince the Ummayads to expand past the Pyrenees. You could end up with an Islamic Francia ITTL, or at least and Islamic Occitain.

5) No Charlemagne means no Carolingian Renaissance.

6) If Italy remains controlled by the Lombards and the Saxons remain pagan, it's possible that proto-Catholic Christianity is severely weakened. ITTL the proto-Orthodox form of Christianity could end up being dominant.

Anyway, that's just my ideas. Anyone else have anything to add?
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