WI Charles IV King of Spain flees to Mexico after Spain falls to Napoleon

So here is my question. Say instead of Abdicating in 1808 due to the revolt the King of Spain Charles IV Bourbon flees to Mexico. Is it possible for him to set up the royal court in the Spanish royal colonies and still not give in to his son Ferdinand. If so how does the world react. Is this possible? How does it change latin american history.
 
I'm not sure if the Spanish Bourbons were very popular among the colonial elites. It could be that he is imprisoned and the Mexicans try and use him as a bargaining chip to have some of Napolean's allies recognise an early independent Mexico.
 
Something more interesting would be to have Ferdinand flee to New Spain, the infant Carlos taken to New Grenade, while Carlos IV remains in Europe under control of Napoleon. I think the local elites would use them as a legitimacy flag to get independence, we coul have kingdoms of New Spain and kingdoms of New Grenade. The groups that opposed independence would be appeased by the presence of spanish royalty.
 
I'm not sure if the Spanish Bourbons were very popular among the colonial elites. It could be that he is imprisoned and the Mexicans try and use him as a bargaining chip to have some of Napolean's allies recognise an early independent Mexico.

Thats difficult to see, at least at the beginning, maybe if he starts to meddle like Brazil´s one, but its difficult because Charles will be completely ok with being apart of ruling and letting them govern as they fit ...

Most probable outcome is a split like Portugal-Brazilian one, followed by a probable secession wars in a good part of South America, I assume he would establish in Nueva España, making South American Criollos revolt "in name of Fernando VII of course" and getting their independence a lot like OTL ... of course if the "Imperio de Mexico" royalist have a decent general or two I can see him/them keeping all of Central America and maybe even Philippines too.
 
Charles could probably hold Mexico, at least long enough. Doesn't placate the South Americans though; Bolivar and San Martin still free their continent. Assuming a functioning, active Bourbon monarchy in Mexico, I wonder if they serve as enough of a bogeyman to keep Gran Colombia together? (being invaded by Mexico is both more plausible and more threatening to New Grenada etc than being invaded by Spain.)
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Thats difficult to see, at least at the beginning, maybe if he starts to meddle like Brazil´s one, but its difficult because Charles will be completely ok with being apart of ruling and letting them govern as they fit ...
Carlos isn't the one we have to worry about; his wife was the real troublemaker. She'll probably screech about fleeing to Mexico, and I wouldn't put it past her to convince Carlos not to go. Fernando, on the other hand, could prove very popular amongst the liberal criollo elites...
 

Lusitania

Donor
I imagined the very same thing and had Ferdinand flee with the rest of the Spanish royal family to New Spain (See signature for TL). Just like in iOTL Portugal with the royal court across the sea it would deprive Napoleon of the ability to make his brother king of Spain.

It would also act as a unifying way for the Spanish colonies. Just like Portugal not everyone who fled to New Spain would want to return and a larger Spain/Mexico would emerge in the new world. Maybe even leading to a bigger Spanish presence in California and/or Texas.
 
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