WI: Charles II of Spain dies during the Nine Years War?

So what happens if Charles dies during the war instead of after it? Depending on when he dies the most likely candidate to take the throne would be his niece Maria Antonia or her son Joseph Ferdinand if she dies after his birth like OTL.

But what would the wider repercussions be? Would Austria try to claim the throne or part of the Spanish inheritance? Were there enough French supporters in Spain to have a Bourbon prince declared king in opposition to the Grand Alliance's candidate, like Philip V versus Charles III during the War of the Spanish Succession? Assuming there's a stalemate like OTL would a partition of the Spanish lands be part of an alternate Treaty of Ryswick?
 
I believe the allies had an agreement that the Austrian claimant would be the heir. Meanwhile France fought much of the war with an eye to securing the inheritance for its own prince. OTL, the Catalonia front was the smallest front. TTL, you're going to see a much larger invasion of Spain to secure the throne. For the most part, France was a bit more successful than the allies militarily. I don't think they're going to be pushed to the brink of disaster as they were in OTL War of Spanish Succession.

Joseph Ferdinand had a weaker claim than either Bourbon or Habsburg. OTL, he was a compromise candidate in an attempt to avoid a massive war. TTL, there's already a massive war, and Wittelsbach claims are going to be shoved aside. Leopold of Austria was greedy and never showed any sign of being willing to share the spoils, while Louis XIV was willing to divide the empire (at least up until Charles II left it all to the Bourbons, and Louis was persuaded that Leopold would never agree to a partition), so I can see him getting Bavaria to switch sides through offering a slice of the pie.
 
Joseph Ferdinand had a weaker claim than either Bourbon or Habsburg.

Uh how? He was the closest heir to the gratefully deceased Carlos II - grandson of his only full sister. As opposed to Philippe of Anjou (who was next best, grandson of his half-sister). And then the Habsburg claimant is pretty weak, grandson of his younger aunt (her elder sister being Philippe's great-grandmother). The question is, does Maximilian II obey the summons to Madrid from Carlos II for his son (IIRC OTL it was specified only Josef and Josef alone; Max refused (because he saw his chance to be regent, or something) to send his son, citing various reasons (there's a war on, it's not safe, Joey's sick, etc). Granted here, Max isn't going to have Carlos to indicate alone, but, Leopold I is no slouch, since he got his daughter to renounce her rights to the Spanish throne 3x - once on her marriage, once on the birth of her son, and again on her deathbed - with the proviso to appoint him (her dad) as regent for his grandson, rather than Max.

So, IMO, if Carlos goes during the 9YW, we get the infant King José of Spain, and if he still dies, everything goes to custard. The French can contest it, the whole Maria Teresa dowry unpaid thing, but if I'm not mistaken, full sister trumps half-sister, the same way that sister trumps nephew.
 
Uh how? He was the closest heir to the gratefully deceased Carlos II - grandson of his only full sister. As opposed to Philippe of Anjou (who was next best, grandson of his half-sister). And then the Habsburg claimant is pretty weak, grandson of his younger aunt (her elder sister being Philippe's great-grandmother). The question is, does Maximilian II obey the summons to Madrid from Carlos II for his son (IIRC OTL it was specified only Josef and Josef alone; Max refused (because he saw his chance to be regent, or something) to send his son, citing various reasons (there's a war on, it's not safe, Joey's sick, etc). Granted here, Max isn't going to have Carlos to indicate alone, but, Leopold I is no slouch, since he got his daughter to renounce her rights to the Spanish throne 3x - once on her marriage, once on the birth of her son, and again on her deathbed - with the proviso to appoint him (her dad) as regent for his grandson, rather than Max.

So, IMO, if Carlos goes during the 9YW, we get the infant King José of Spain, and if he still dies, everything goes to custard. The French can contest it, the whole Maria Teresa dowry unpaid thing, but if I'm not mistaken, full sister trumps half-sister, the same way that sister trumps nephew.

The issue was not full siblings v. half siblings (that was the pretext for Louis XIV's Devolution War), but renunciation v. no renunciation. Margarida Teresa's renunciation of her rights had never been recognized in a Cortes decision, while Maria Teresa's renunciation had been submitted to the 1660 Cortes. So, from a Spanish legal standpoint, Margarida Teresa was heiress, Maria Teresa was not. In fact, as no Cortes were convened between 1664 and 1713, it was quite a specious argument - Charles II had not been proclaimed heir by nor took an oath before the Cortes, but he was still recognized as King.
 
While the English and Dutch recognized Archduke Charles as heir to the entire inheritance in 1689, did they get the Spanish to recognize him too? Given their future conduct with the two partition treaties I'd imagine they didn't bother. I read somewhere that while Maria Antonia was made to renounce her rights to the Spanish succession three times, that she retained her rights to the Spanish Netherlands. Also, since two of the renunciations were at the birth of Joseph Ferdinand and on her deathbed she might not make them if Charles II predeceases her.

Aside from Bavaria, Savoy might also be enticed to switch sides. Victor Amadeus II was also a claimant to the throne of Spain, and he wanted Milan so France might have enticed him by promising them more territory than they'd get from the Grand Alliance.
 
While the English and Dutch recognized Archduke Charles as heir to the entire inheritance in 1689, did they get the Spanish to recognize him too? Given their future conduct with the two partition treaties I'd imagine they didn't bother. I read somewhere that while Maria Antonia was made to renounce her rights to the Spanish succession three times, that she retained her rights to the Spanish Netherlands. Also, since two of the renunciations were at the birth of Joseph Ferdinand and on her deathbed she might not make them if Charles II predeceases her.

Aside from Bavaria, Savoy might also be enticed to switch sides. Victor Amadeus II was also a claimant to the throne of Spain, and he wanted Milan so France might have enticed him by promising them more territory than they'd get from the Grand Alliance.

England-Holland aren't gonna promise Karl ANYTHING so long as his half-sister/her son lives. And Antonia probably WON'T sign any renunciation put in front of her if Carlos drops dead before she does. Max CERTAINLY won't get it right - their marriage was rather...tempestuous to say the least. With her basically regarding herself as superior to him in rank.

As to Savoy getting Milan or France promising them more than the Alliance offers, it depends. The duke (much like his cousin in Münich) thought of himself first last and in-between. Sure, if France tells him you can get Milan he's gonna jump. But he's also gonna drop France like a hot potato the minute it looks like he's gonna lose what they promised (because they're losing) and go kiss ass by the Allies. No one at Utrecht wanted him to get anything OTL (because of him having such a mercurial nature), but then there was the spare crown lying around with no head to wear it sort of thing.
 
The issue was not full siblings v. half siblings (that was the pretext for Louis XIV's Devolution War), but renunciation v. no renunciation. Margarida Teresa's renunciation of her rights had never been recognized in a Cortes decision, while Maria Teresa's renunciation had been submitted to the 1660 Cortes. So, from a Spanish legal standpoint, Margarida Teresa was heiress, Maria Teresa was not. In fact, as no Cortes were convened between 1664 and 1713, it was quite a specious argument - Charles II had not been proclaimed heir by nor took an oath before the Cortes, but he was still recognized as King.
wasn't there a specific clause in Maria Teresa's renunciation that it was contingent upon her dowry being paid? The French argument is that since the dowry wasn't paid, the renunciation is void.

All in all, legalities don't matter. Charles II's intentions don't matter. This was a pure case of might makes right. the only thing that mattered is who could bring enough force to settle the matter.
 
England-Holland aren't gonna promise Karl ANYTHING so long as his half-sister/her son lives. And Antonia probably WON'T sign any renunciation put in front of her if Carlos drops dead before she does. Max CERTAINLY won't get it right - their marriage was rather...tempestuous to say the least. With her basically regarding herself as superior to him in rank.

They already had by 1689, it was one of the conditions to get Leopold in the Grand Alliance. And she's already made one renunciation at the time of her marriage. If the Wittelsbachs contest the Habsburgs then they'll probably demand the entire Spanish inheritance, though how much they end up getting is up in the air. Joseph Ferdinand was born in Vienna, so if Maximillian wants to switch sides he's either going to get his son out, or just figure that the Habsburgs wouldn't do anything to hurt him.

As to Savoy getting Milan or France promising them more than the Alliance offers, it depends. The duke (much like his cousin in Münich) thought of himself first last and in-between. Sure, if France tells him you can get Milan he's gonna jump. But he's also gonna drop France like a hot potato the minute it looks like he's gonna lose what they promised (because they're losing) and go kiss ass by the Allies. No one at Utrecht wanted him to get anything OTL (because of him having such a mercurial nature), but then there was the spare crown lying around with no head to wear it sort of thing.

Good point, although if he's already joined the war then switched sides to France, he probably won't be able to switch back unless the Grand Alliance is really desperate. Which they might be since France was able to do so much on their own, if Savoy or Bavaria switches it'll be a huge boost, and together they'd really shift the initiative in France's favor.
 
It entirely depends on just when Carlos dies. Joseph Ferdinand was made Prince of Asturias an heir to the throne in September 1696, shortly after the Queen Mother Marianna's death. At no point was Archduke Karl recognized as heir by the Spanish Court. If the Bourbons were out, then the next in line was the Wittelsbachs. Also remember that Spain never recognized either partition treaty; Carlos intended to leave the entire monarchy to his chosen heir.

So the real question is this; if presented with a fait accompli, would the English and Dutch accept it or go to war to enforce their agreements with Austria? I'd suspect the former. Then it becomes what France and Austria will do. Will Louis XIV and Leopold I come to some kind of agreement to divide the inheritance among themselves and force the Spanish to accept it? Do we see the Nine Years' war devolve into a three way war between Spain, England and the Netherlands, Austria and the Holy Roman Empire and France?

Something else to consider; from 1691 Maximilian II Emanuel of Bavaria was also Governor of the Spanish Netherlands. So we could see him try to barter the territories with France in exchange for their support for his son in the Spanish inheritance dispute. The Sun King might be willing to trade the his son's rights over Spain or the Italian territories for the prestige of adding the Southern Netherlands to France. There's also the fact that Austria was heavily engaged in a massive war with the Turks over Hungary and the Balkans; the Austrians might not be able to disengage on their Southern front to fully deploy troops into Italy or the Netherlands. In truth opening the Spanish succession during the Nine Years' war would be a very interesting development and could open up the possibility of a diplomatic revolution in Europe.
 
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very interesting indeed. What diplomatic revolution do you see? During the war, the only possibilities I see are a minor power or two, such as Bavaria or Savoy (although Savoy was mostly whooped during the war, so I don't really see what advantage there is to wooing them). Spain becomes a battlefield rather than an ally.

The truly interesting part is all the new fronts and changes of emphasis. There's going to be a scramble for the Italian duchies/kingdoms (Milan, Naples, Sicily, Sardinia) and a big push to take Spain. Neither Austria or France really has manpower to spare to add those new fronts while maintaining existing efforts on existing fronts. I'd say France has the advantage there, especially if they can swing Bavaria. Perhaps we see a massive swing in tactics from siege and avoidance of open battle to a more mobile/battle oriented warfare?

Austria has to walk a tightrope with Joseph F and Bavaria. There was rampant speculation that Austria bumped him off OTL when he was in line for the crown. If so, he's likely to have the same fate here, but then again, Austria would surely push Bavaria into the arms of the French if that happened. But Leopold really wants the crown for his son and he doesn't want a big Wittelsbach power to contend with. a tangled web the greedy Leopold is in.

Britain/UP is in an anybody but France frame of mind. They'd probably back Joseph F, but that would mean dumping Austria and joining France. (edit - with guarantees from France that Spanish Netherlands stay out of Bourbon hands, they might drop out of the fray, but I don't see them joining France. they were fighting France to prevent French power from growing, and that is still Louis' goal no matter what the resolution of Spain is)

France has the initial war aims of Louis XIV's natural borders, plus grabbing all the Spanish empire for himself and a son/grandson. Louis' greed is up there with Leopold's.

Bottom line is that I see the alliances remaining similar, if not exact. I'm a believer in the Joseph F was poisoned theory, so I'm thinking he winds up six feet under, assuming he's born before Charles II dies.
 
very interesting indeed. What diplomatic revolution do you see? During the war, the only possibilities I see are a minor power or two, such as Bavaria or Savoy (although Savoy was mostly whooped during the war, so I don't really see what advantage there is to wooing them). Spain becomes a battlefield rather than an ally.

The truly interesting part is all the new fronts and changes of emphasis. There's going to be a scramble for the Italian duchies/kingdoms (Milan, Naples, Sicily, Sardinia) and a big push to take Spain. Neither Austria or France really has manpower to spare to add those new fronts while maintaining existing efforts on existing fronts. I'd say France has the advantage there, especially if they can swing Bavaria. Perhaps we see a massive swing in tactics from siege and avoidance of open battle to a more mobile/battle oriented warfare?

As you say, there'll be a scramble for Italy and having the cooperation of Savoy will help France get access. France was stretched very thin and any relief they can get will help. Also I don't think France would focus on Spain to the detriment of the other fronts, Louis wasn't expecting to end up with Spain IOTL so he'd just see a disputed succession as a way to end the war faster with more advantageous peace settlement.
 
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