WI: Charles II dies in infancy. Who succeeds Philip IV of Spain?

The lawful heir (assuming the Spanish still haven't paid the dowry) is the Queen of France.

Note that Margaret Theresa (Philip's younger daughter) is betrothed, but not yet married to her uncle; that could provide a compromise solution for parties who want neither a Franco-Spanish union nor an Austro-Spanish one, if they can agree on an alternative husband. If the dowry has been paid, she inherits (although the French might still challenge it, if the only alternative is a recreation of the empire of Charles V).

On the other hand, all the potential combatants are somewhat distracted (England and the Netherlands are embroiled in conflict, France and Spain have only finally made peace a few years prior, the Austrians have just fought a war against the Ottomans and have to be wary of further threats). That's ignoring butterflies, of course, but similar conflicts seem likely.
 
The lawful heir (assuming the Spanish still haven't paid the dowry) is the Queen of France.

Note that Margaret Theresa (Philip's younger daughter) is betrothed, but not yet married to her uncle; that could provide a compromise solution for parties who want neither a Franco-Spanish union nor an Austro-Spanish one, if they can agree on an alternative husband. If the dowry has been paid, she inherits (although the French might still challenge it, if the only alternative is a recreation of the empire of Charles V).

On the other hand, all the potential combatants are somewhat distracted (England and the Netherlands are embroiled in conflict, France and Spain have only finally made peace a few years prior, the Austrians have just fought a war against the Ottomans and have to be wary of further threats). That's ignoring butterflies, of course, but similar conflicts seem likely.

The dowry being paid was a French argument for their claim to Spain through Anjou when Charles II finally did croak, not to mention the reason for their expansionist policy in the Southern Netherlands. They were essentially claiming the Queen's birthright and that according to custom in those lands, she couldn't be displaced as heir by a son born after her (or so the claim during the War of the Devolution was).

Of course, Anne of Austria received the same dowry Maria Theresa was promised a generation earlier and it was actually paid.... she renounced her rights as well, with proviso she resume them if she was widowed with any issue by Louis XIII.

If Margaret is betrothed already but not yet married, I can see her becoming heir in lieu of Maria Theresa. Maybe the Spanish make some drastic cuts to ensure her dowry is paid. But I think either way, you might not actually see a huge conflict if there is a solid heir and a husband can be provided (probably a German Prince, maybe a Bavarian is available?) as it is only a short time after the end of the thirty years war. France is in better space c. the 1660s to prosecute such a war, though. I could see Mazarin pushing some sort of partition treaty like agreement with Margaret and her husband getting the scraps. The Emperor might be appeased with a broken marriage contract with Milan...
 
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