WI: Charles I of Hungary dies in the Battle of Rozgony/Rozhanovce on June 15 AD 1312

[Petike]

This is a Slovak/Hungarian medieval POD that's been kicking around in my head for several years now.

For info on the Battle of Rozhanovce, click here, here and here.

In OTL, at one point in the battle, king Charles I.'s troops were overwhelmed. It got so bad that even the king's standard bearer was killed and the king himself was forced to retreat. Thankfully, he had just enough luck to regroup with the visiting Knights Hospitaller from Italy that were part of his army, and keep on fighting off the opposing house of Aba troops. In the end, the king's side won thanks to reinforcements from Košice/Kassa arriving to provide some additional relief for the royal army and its allies.

Basic POD:
Now... What would happen if the king wasn't so lucky ? What if he had been cut down before, during or even after his temporary retreat ? Or at some other stage of the battle (early on, in the late phase, etc.) ?

Corollary questions:
What would happen to the Kingdom of Hungary ?
Would the 1300s dynastic squabbles over the heir to the throne reignite again in the monarchy and relevant parts of central Europe ?
Who would be the most likely to replace Charles, whether from the Anjevin dynasty or some other European house ?
With no Charles I. and a very different replacement/successor a possibility, how would the kingdom be affected, on a political and economic level ? (In OTL, the king made a lot of generally positive reforms, so this might get stalled.)
Could the Aba family, Matúš/Máté Csák and their petty vassals consolidate power further, how would they influence the monarchy and the state of civil war/separatism it was in during the early 14th century ?

 

[Halagaz]

So would Robert of Naples take the throne? He looks like he could be a decent ruler, but if the power of the nobility remains unbroken his personal qualities won't matter that much.

 

[Petike]

So would Robert of Naples take the throne? He looks like he could be a decent ruler, but if the power of the nobility remains unbroken his personal qualities won't matter that much.

A lot of Roberts among the Italian Anjevins, aren't there ?

To answer your question: I'm not really sure who was next in the line of succession. Charles I. was roughly 24 years old at the time of the battle and he had come to live in Hungary when he was still just a child (around 10 years old or thereabouts). I'm not sure if what little close family he had in his new homeland would be elligible for succession and how the extended family back home in Naples would handle an untimely death of the king.

If the Anjevins in Hungary get butterflied away or don't manage to secure a foothold, I can imagine that an ATL like this could have fairly massive repercussions for both Hungarian and many Italian developments throughout the 14th century. Don't forget that Charles' son Louis was one of the few expansionistic or "adventurous" rulers of high/late-medieval Hungary. There was the whole business of his succession wars with Naples. That, and the whole business with Poland and Lithuania. I mean, without Louis, you won't get Hedwig either, and that could have quite a few impacts on Polish history too...

So, a spanner in the works for the Anjevins in early 14th century Hungary could change a lot of things in Europe. First rather subtly, then increasingly deeply.

 

[LSCatilina]

What would happen to the Kingdom of Hungary ?

Probably more divided than IOTL. Charles action had the benefit to re-unite Hungary.
Not only Máté Csák would hold his ground ITTL, but other pretendents would have an hard time definitely imposing themselves without support from Angevines shifting to them.

Maybe a return to the traditional division of Hungary in three parts? North, Center and South-West, respectivly for Máté Csák , Henry XV (with a great power for hungrian nobility) and Subic under nominal Angevine suzerainty?

Would the 1300s dynastic squabbles over the heir to the throne reignite again in the monarchy and relevant parts of central Europe ?

I'd tend to think that Charles' death would mark at least a pause in the dynastic infighting, and that Hungary would be temporarily divided.

Now, it's up to an ambitious ruler to manage to overcome this. Henry XV is probably the most well placed, but he would have to renounce Bavaria if he doesn't want HRE to meddle there. Problem is, deprived from German bases, he would have a really harder time unifying the Hungary.

Who would be the most likely to replace Charles, whether from the Anjevin dynasty or some other European house ?

Giving Angevine house only had a title on Hungary with Charles Martel, when Charles I would die, I'm not sure his closer successor, Robert the wise, would be interested on a deep campaign on Hungary that if it had the merit to distract Charles from napolitan affairs, didn't really benefited him.
(That said, if Rome supports Otto III's claims, you may see Robert agree in exchange of aformentioned split of titles at his benefit in Croatia)

Could the Aba family, Matúš/Máté Csák and their petty vassals consolidate power further, how would they influence the monarchy and the state of civil war/separatism it was in during the early 14th century ?

I don't think they would push for outright separatism, to be honest (the notion being to blurry to really be enforced), but would certainly resist far better to unification attempt..

Tercia pars regni is clearly a precedent that they would use, not only at their direct benefit but on an overall organisation of Hungary.

More it would last, more it would make Hungary division looking "natural" and make unification attempts harder. German princes would have an easier time than Angevine (it's but a gut-based tought, though) ITTL to control Hungary, as they would have a more important geopolitical interest.

Angevine mediterranean policy could be even more of a focus than IOTL, without the troubles between Hungary and Naples.

 

[Petike]

Probably more divided than IOTL. Charles action had the benefit to re-unite Hungary.

That he indeed did. For better or worse, the Anjevin era of Hungary after the civil war ended was arguably the most succesful medieval period of the monarchy. Having it all get subverted would cause extensive butterflies fairly fast.

Not only Máté Csák would hold his ground ITTL, but other pretendents would have an hard time definitely imposing themselves without support from Angevines shifting to them.

The odd thing about the magnates, oligarchs and warlords of the time was that, though they grew to be increasingly independently-minded, they actually relied on paying lip-service to the monarchy and whoever was supposed to be ruler/heir, just to give semi-legitimacy for their lifestyles. I mean, though Csák acted like a de facto separatist ruler on what was later dubbed "Terra Mattei", he was for all intents and purposes, still the palatine. Which is doubly paradoxical, as the king awarded him that function as a bargaining chip, to steer him back into the fold. Csák was always the stubborn type, though. His own little unofficial realm finally gave in after he died in 1321. Sometimes, it's best to wait if you want to decapitate your most annoying adversary.

Maybe a return to the traditional division of Hungary in three parts? North, Center and South-West, respectivly for Máté Csák , Henry XV (with a great power for hungrian nobility) and Subic under nominal Angevine suzerainty?

We can only speculate. As a corrollary on my above comments on Csák, I can't see the lands he carved out under his nominal rule holding together for very long. Csák's chuminess with certain allies in places like Moravia (where he tended to hire a lot of mercenaries) could backfire on him even in the more Csák-favourable constellation of events that is this ATL.

I'd tend to think that Charles' death would mark at least a pause in the dynastic infighting, and that Hungary would be temporarily divided.

It had happened before and had happened several times in the future as well. The post-Mohács years of the 16th century in particular can certainly attest to that.

Now, it's up to an ambitious ruler to manage to overcome this. Henry XV is probably the most well placed, but he would have to renounce Bavaria if he doesn't want HRE to meddle there. Problem is, deprived from German bases, he would have a really harder time unifying the Hungary.

That he would. He does have some legit claims on the throne, but he would certainly have to rethink his future as a European crowned head. The argument with the weaker backing once he reaches Hungary makes sense too.

Giving Angevine house only had a title on Hungary with Charles Martel, when Charles I would die, I'm not sure his closer successor, Robert the wise, would be interested on a deep campaign on Hungary that if it had the merit to distract Charles from napolitan affairs, didn't really benefited him.

(That said, if Rome supports Otto III's claims, you may see Robert agree in exchange of aformentioned split of titles at his benefit in Croatia)

Yeah, this is interesting !

I don't think they would push for outright separatism, to be honest (the notion being to blurry to really be enforced), but would certainly resist far better to unification attempt.

This is related to my previous comments of how their activities and efforts hinged on the premise of a weak and controllable king that would lend some credibility to the facade of an otherwise politically divided kingdom.

Tercia pars regni is clearly a precedent that they would use, not only at their direct benefit but on an overall organisation of Hungary.

More it would last, more it would make Hungary division looking "natural" and make unification attempts harder. German princes would have an easier time than Angevine (it's but a gut-based tought, though) ITTL to control Hungary, as they would have a more important geopolitical interest.

Yep, some very good points here !

(This is why I like discussing medieval history with you. You know what you're talking about.)

Angevine mediterranean policy could be even more of a focus than IOTL, without the troubles between Hungary and Naples.

Yes, that's bound to change if they either give up on Hungary for good or relegate it to second place on their diplomacy schedule/wishlist.

 

[LSCatilina]

they actually relied on paying lip-service to the monarchy and whoever was supposed to be ruler/heir, just to give semi-legitimacy for their lifestyles.

Well, of course. It doesn't mean the royal power would be really defined. As you noticed, the magnates power weren't that well determined itself, and even if they give a local try at Magna Carta (which I doubt would be culturally doable anyway, but I don't know nearly enough about Hungarian law tradition to be certain), it would be only an acknowledgment of a de facto situation rather than a funding event.

The king may serves there as well as a legitimacy token (the problem being that each side would be willing to have its own, if there's enough candidates), but as an arbitrer as well *if* strong enough (not in military features strictly speaking, but on its own legitimacy and possibility to play side against each other).
IOTL, Charles prooved that the situation became more and more unbrearable, and you pointed out that magnates couldn't do well without a king.

So when Henry (admitting he gets the crown) would acceed to power, while probably not having control of Bavaria, he could still count on German princes, maybe promising some increased presence in Eastern Hungary (more Germans than Hungarians in Transylvania?)

We can only speculate. As a corrollary on my above comments on Csák, I can't see the lands he carved out under his nominal rule holding together for very long.

Feudal division of land doesn't mean that factions can't appear, with holdings outside nominal rule falling into these.
Giving that XIVth Hungary was particularly divided since Ladislas' reign, it's not like you didn't have room for trans-regional loyalties to be created.

While it's indeed speculation, it seems to me (I can be wrong there, giving the complexity of the situation and my limited grasp on Hungarian policies) that Croatia, Eastern Hungary, Northern Hungary and Pannonian Plain formed, very roughly, smaller aeras.
I'm not talking about geographical determinism, or unity inside these.
But that maybe reorganisation of Hungary would be made on a local level, and that each of these (roughly and arbitrarily divided) regions would gain its own political balance.

Csák's chuminess with certain allies in places like Moravia (where he tended to hire a lot of mercenaries) could backfire on him even in the more Csák-favourable constellation of events that is this ATL.

Maybe. In this case, a Croatian regimen (more or less close than the situation Stephen was) with him as regent, or whatever title Napolitains would trust him as long he bends over ( a Napolitain intervention in Coratia, whatever due to a general Hungarian later crisis, or to Csak ambition is not to be excluded at all, quite the contrary).

Yes, that's bound to change if they either give up on Hungary for good or relegate it to second place on their diplomacy schedule/wishlist.

Napolitain rulers never seem to have given a huge interest to Hungary proper, at the contrary of Adriatic shores (for example, the Kingdom of Albania)
Without Angevine dynastic infighting, Naples may have a better rap not only in Italy but in Meditteranean basin (It should be more tought tourough, but at least Provence, Adriatic, maybe competing with Venice in Greece are interesting possibilities)

 

[Marko]

Considering Pavle Šubić was originaly one of the main supporters of Charles - afterall Paul's brother acompanied the boy Charles on his voyage across the Adriatic - but was slowly withdrawing his support due to Charles wish at greater authority, I would not be surprised Paul's goes "fuck it, I am going on my own". At that time he was a hereditary Ban of Croatia, hereditary lord of Bosnia and the leader and "chairman" of the Croatian diet, he minted his own coins and wrote his own charters - basically he was a king in all but name.

Also he was a close ally of the Csak family and I am quite sure he and Mathias could arange some agreement to "divide the land". How much effort would the Anjour expand to try and reclaim Hungary-Croatia is dubious and at least in 1312 Croatia was on equal terms with Venice on the sea so any serious Naploitan expedition would first have to go through that before landing unless they go the long way round through the rest of Italy.

To me death of Charles at Rozhanovce is an opening to feudal anarchy during the 14th century in Hungary-Croatia that would probably see the separation of the two with the fate of Slavonia in the middle remaining in question.

 

[Petike]

Considering Pavle Šubić was originaly one of the main supporters of Charles - afterall Paul's brother acompanied the boy Charles on his voyage across the Adriatic - but was slowly withdrawing his support due to Charles wish at greater authority, I would not be surprised Paul's goes "fuck it, I am going on my own". At that time he was a hereditary Ban of Croatia, hereditary lord of Bosnia and the leader and "chairman" of the Croatian diet, he minted his own coins and wrote his own charters - basically he was a king in all but name.

I wouldn't be surprised if he had done so in the ATL, given the window of opportunity caused by the ATL death. He was certainly in an itching mood and the king's premature death on the battlefield could have proven a tipping point.

Well, of course. It doesn't mean the royal power would be really defined. As you noticed, the magnates power weren't that well determined itself, and even if they give a local try at Magna Carta (which I doubt would be culturally doable anyway, but I don't know nearly enough about Hungarian law tradition to be certain), it would be only an acknowledgment of a de facto situation rather than a funding event.

The king may serves there as well as a legitimacy token (the problem being that each side would be willing to have its own, if there's enough candidates), but as an arbitrer as well *if* strong enough (not in military features strictly speaking, but on its own legitimacy and possibility to play side against each other). IOTL, Charles prooved that the situation became more and more unbrearable, and you pointed out that magnates couldn't do well without a king.

Well, obviously, that was one of the ways he worked on proving that they can't really run the monarchy in the style they dreamt up after the Árpád dynasty died out and the decades of the succession crisis started.

So when Henry (admitting he gets the crown) would acceed to power, while probably not having control of Bavaria, he could still count on German princes, maybe promising some increased presence in Eastern Hungary (more Germans than Hungarians in Transylvania?)

Could have interesting ethnic and cultural ramifications ! Imagine Transylvania Teuton style settlement around Debrecen or even in the puszta. Maybe the Hungarian bit of the Zemplín mountain range could gain a few small German-speaking mining and craftsmen towns as a result of this odd arrangement brought about by Henry ?

Feudal division of land doesn't mean that factions can't appear, with holdings outside nominal rule falling into these. Giving that XIVth Hungary was particularly divided since Ladislas' reign, it's not like you didn't have room for trans-regional loyalties to be created.

You bet.

While it's indeed speculation, it seems to me (I can be wrong there, giving the complexity of the situation and my limited grasp on Hungarian policies) that Croatia, Eastern Hungary, Northern Hungary and Pannonian Plain formed, very roughly, smaller areas.
I'm not talking about geographical determinism, or unity inside these.
But that maybe reorganisation of Hungary would be made on a local level, and that each of these (roughly and arbitrarily divided) regions would gain its own political balance.

It is a possibility.

Also he was a close ally of the Csak family and I am quite sure he and Mathias could arange some agreement to "divide the land". How much effort would the Anjour expand to try and reclaim Hungary-Croatia is dubious and at least in 1312 Croatia was on equal terms with Venice on the sea so any serious Naploitan expedition would first have to go through that before landing unless they go the long way round through the rest of Italy.

Interesting point ! I had no idea that the Croatian navy of that particular period was evenly matched with the Venetian. Good to know, that does indeed complicate things for a an Anjou "reclamation mission".

(Minor nitpick: Csák's name translates to Matthew in English, Matthias would be "Matej" or "Matyás". )

To me death of Charles at Rozhanovce is an opening to feudal anarchy during the 14th century in Hungary-Croatia that would probably see the separation of the two with the fate of Slavonia in the middle remaining in question.

I am usually not the sort of AH fan who thinks that the outcomes of battles or famous personalities dying at a different time have to automatically have drastic, far-reaching changes. But given how much of 14th century Hungarian history (and the ways it influenced several European countries) hinges on the Anjevins achieving breakthroughs in the civil war and gradually reuniting and massively reforming the monarchy, Charles' death is one of those cases that really could have changed many, many things, in many possible permutations.

Yes, if Croatia decided to fully go its own way, it's not a done deal that they would somehow incorporate Slavonia into their territories and "bring her along for the ride".

Napolitain rulers never seem to have given a huge interest to Hungary proper, at the contrary of Adriatic shores (for example, the Kingdom of Albania)

If Charles fails and an effort to still claim and hold the throne is not launched in time, I could certainly see that they'd lose interest in expanding the family's extended reach into central European regions.

Without Angevine dynastic infighting, Naples may have a better rap not only in Italy but in Meditteranean basin (It should be more tought tourough, but at least Provence, Adriatic, maybe competing with Venice in Greece are interesting possibilities)

It's kind of funny that they might benefit from the fact that the offshoots of their relatives will not be as stretched throughout Europe as in OTL. (Unless they eventually start similar efforts again during the same century, though possibly in other countries and territories.)

Maybe. In this case, a Croatian regimen (more or less close than the situation Stephen was) with him as regent, or whatever title Napolitains would trust him as long he bends over (a Napolitain intervention in Coratia, whatever due to a general Hungarian later crisis, or to Csak ambition is not to be excluded at all, quite the contrary).

There are some potential issues with that, though, as Marko had already mentioned.

 

[Marko]

What do you think would the happen now that son(s) of Amade(us) had won. They were the only native Magyar noble family that could claim the crown by descent (I think) from Samuel. Also Amade was usurping royal prerogatives prior to his death in 1311 so could this inspire his victorious ofspring to try and claim the whole thing?

 

[Petike]

What do you think would the happen now that son(s) of Amade(us) had won. They were the only native Magyar noble family that could claim the crown by descent (I think) from Samuel. Also Amade was usurping royal prerogatives prior to his death in 1311 so could this inspire his victorious ofspring to try and claim the whole thing?

This is something I'm really on the fence on. At face value, it still seems kind of cartoonish to me, as such an overt move might be a bit too uncharacteristical of the Abas. But yes, if the situation had been favourable enough for them, and with the king out of the picture, they could even attempt to claim the throne for themselves via one of their family members. I'm not sure what deal they could make and whether there wouldn't be squabbling among Amade's sons, but it is technically somewhat possible. It would still be a ballsy move, though. It's clear that the family would attract the ire of foreign claimants of the throne if they had done that. If they had tried it, they would just have to do their best to hold onto their gains and repel any potential incursions of claimants, icluding the German-speaking ones.

 

[Petike]

Bumping...

 

[Petike]

So, does anyone have any more ideas concerning this POD ?

 

[kasumigenx]

If the Anjevins in Hungary get butterflied away or don't manage to secure a foothold, I can imagine that an ATL like this could have fairly massive repercussions for both Hungarian and many Italian developments throughout the 14th century. Don't forget that Charles' son Louis was one of the few expansionistic or "adventurous" rulers of high/late-medieval Hungary. There was the whole business of his succession wars with Naples. That, and the whole business with Poland and Lithuania. I mean, without Louis, you won't get Hedwig either, and that could have quite a few impacts on Polish history too...

It could also mean that Luxembourgs might get Poland, since the Angevins were allies of Wladyslaw the Elbowhigh.

 

[Petike]

It could also mean that Luxembourgs might get Poland, since the Angevins were allies of Wladyslaw the Elbowhigh.

Are you entirely sure of that, kas ? How would the Luxembourgs come to Poland without the Anjevins ? Or did you mean something different ?

 

[The Professor]

Are you entirely sure of that, kas ? How would the Luxembourgs come to Poland without the Anjevins ? Or did you mean something different ?

I think he's saying that since Luxembourg Bohemia has a claim on Poland (albeit now quite minor) without the Hungarian Angevins to back up Wladyslaw they may get it.
TBH I doubt it though they may end up weaking Poland

 

[kasumigenx]

I think he's saying that since Luxembourg Bohemia has a claim on Poland (albeit now quite minor) without the Hungarian Angevins to back up Wladyslaw they may get it.
TBH I doubt it though they may end up weaking Poland

We will only have a Poland with no Kuyavia and Gdansk Pomerania which will be given to the Teutonic Knights but Poland will have both Silesia and Mazovia.

 

[Petike]

We will only have a Poland with no Kuyavia and Gdansk Pomerania which will be given to the Teutonic Knights but Poland will have both Silesia and Mazovia.

Oh, I see. Thanks for clarifying.