WI: Charles Evans Hughes defeats Woodrow Wilson?

[Bomster]

Hoover was already directing relief operations for Belgium before 1916, so he would still have a reputation as a great humanitarian. And between that reputation and his organizational skills the Hughes Administration would certainly want him a prominent position during World War 1. (Food Administrator would still make sense given Hoover's reputation and area of expertise, though I could also see him running Hughes' version of the War Industries Board.)

The Kenneth Whyte biography of Hoover suggests that Hoover didn't really have strong partisan loyalties at that time and his trying to run as a Republican in 1920 was largely opportunistic as Hoover correctly assumed it was going to be a Republican year. Thus ITTL where the Democrats seem ascendant in 1920, Hoover probably tries to ally with them. Still, I don't know if someone as partisan as Wilson would give a Cabinet position to someone who played a prominent role in the Hughes Administration, so if Wilson is elected in 1920 then I suspect Hoover is going to be left out in the cold.

What about FDR? Where does he find himself in the 1920s Wilson admin?

 

[darklordoftech]

in the 1918 midterms the Prohibitionist Wilsonian would be vindicated and able to secure the passage of that amendment.

Wilson opposed Prohibition.

 

[Red_Neptune]

Wilson opposed Prohibition.

Brain fart. Thanks for correcting that.

 

[bguy]

What about FDR? Where does he find himself in the 1920s Wilson admin?

Well the first question is does FDR survive World War 1. (IOTL he offered his resignation as Assistant Secretary of Navy so that he could fight in the war, but Wilson refused to accept it. ITTL he presumably does not have an important government position in the Hughes Administration and thus will be able to go off and fight.)

Assuming he does survive the war he's probably due some Cabinet position in the second Wilson Administration if he wants it. Secretary of the Navy would seem the most appropriate given his prior experience and interest in naval affairs, but he might find such a position a little underwhelming given the 1920s are inevitably going to be a time of shrinking the navy. Maybe Governor-General of the Philippines?

(Of course New York had a senate election in 1920, so maybe he would just run for the Senate instead of trying to get a Cabinet position. That's certainly the better option if he wants to have a political future since as a Senator from New York he would be a plausible future candidate for governor or even for the presidency.)

 

[Thomas1195]

Can both parties become more left-wing ITTL?

 

[mianfei]

German-Americans are largely isolationist, and this has had a major influence - even in the modern era, the "pacifistic" Obama was nearly able to flip SD, ND, and MT in 2008. But they are also heavily rural, and socially conservative in other ways: because the Republicans were always sympathetic to the rural vote, they have been very successful at capturing it since the New Deal era. The reason Smith failed to win it despite the farm crisis was because he was Catholic and a city-dweller; in socially conservative German America, such sentiments did not fly. In 1916, they supported the "peace candidate" Wilson but supported Harding in 1920 after Versailles & the ethnic tensions of WWI.

German-Americans actually opposed Wilson in 1916 – Ozaukee County, a very conservative German-Catholic area, voted Republican for the first time ever in 1916 – yet even some anti-Prohibition German Lutherans backed Al Smith (e.g. McIntosh County, North Dakota and McPherson County, South Dakota, before 1920 and after 1940 close to the most Republican counties in the nation).

Wilson was perceived as anti-German and anti-Irish even in 1916. If Hughes had won the election, he might have tried to conduct the war in a manner more favourable to Germany, but of course any real or perceived ethnic prejudice would have backfired on him in 1918 and 1920. It could certainly have affected Hughes in a very different way from Wilson, but avoiding it would have been very difficult period.

 

[raharris1973]

In a Democratic 1920s, any chance immigration quotas from Europe are not set, or set at much higher levels, because of the tendency of urban 'ethnics' to favor Democrats over Republicans?

I could see the argument that the American zeitgeist was turning from open arms to tightening up, especially in light the Russian Revolution and it being proven industry could be kept running without constant immigration, but was that spirit felt absolutely equally by the likely Presidential and Congressional leaders of each party?

 

[Amadeus]

Well the first question is does FDR survive World War 1. (IOTL he offered his resignation as Assistant Secretary of Navy so that he could fight in the war, but Wilson refused to accept it. ITTL he presumably does not have an important government position in the Hughes Administration and thus will be able to go off and fight.)

Assuming he does survive the war he's probably due some Cabinet position in the second Wilson Administration if he wants it. Secretary of the Navy would seem the most appropriate given his prior experience and interest in naval affairs, but he might find such a position a little underwhelming given the 1920s are inevitably going to be a time of shrinking the navy. Maybe Governor-General of the Philippines?

(Of course New York had a senate election in 1920, so maybe he would just run for the Senate instead of trying to get a Cabinet position. That's certainly the better option if he wants to have a political future since as a Senator from New York he would be a plausible future candidate for governor or even for the presidency.)

I have a feeling that FDR would try to follow in cousin Teddy's footsteps and run for office in New York after the war. Al Smith is likely still elected Governor in 1918, so Senate would be a better option for Franklin. Though if he wins that likely butterflies away polio, making his character and career trajectory different.

 

[bguy]

In a Democratic 1920s, any chance immigration quotas from Europe are not set, or set at much higher levels, because of the tendency of urban 'ethnics' to favor Democrats over Republicans?

IOTL Wilson seems to have opposed immigration restrictions as president. In both 1915 and 1917 he vetoed a bill that would have imposed a literacy test on immigrants (his 1917 veto was overridden) and in 1921 one of his last acts as president was to pocket veto a bill that would have placed immigration quotas on nationalities from the eastern hemisphere. That said there were very powerful constituencies within the Democratic Party that favored immigration restriction in the 1920s: the AFL was opposed to further mass immigration as they believed it depressed wages, and the Ku Klux Klan had considerable power within the Democrats at the time (to the point that the 1924 Democrat convention was known as the Klanbake.) Thus even if Wilson tries to block immigration restriction legislation it probably gets passed over his veto. (To give some context to how hostile even the Democrats in Congress were to immigration at this time when Wilson vetoed the 1917 immigration bill the vote to override his veto was 287-106 in the House and 62 -19 in the Senate and that was at a time when the Democrats had majorities in both houses.)

It's also very possible that immigration restriction legislation gets enacted during the Hughes presidency and thus is already a done deal by the time the Democrats retake the White House (though my understanding is that Hughes himself personally opposed the National Origins Act or at least the provisions within the act that banned immigration from Japan.)

 

[raharris1973]

That said there were very powerful constituencies within the Democratic Party that favored immigration restriction in the 1920s: the AFL was opposed to further mass immigration as they believed it depressed wages, and the Ku Klux Klan had considerable power within the Democrats at the time (to the point that the 1924 Democrat convention was known as the Klanbake.)

This makes me think: I wonder if the urban/rural cultural divide in the Democratic Party could still blow up and handicap the Democrats in 1924, even if they are running an incumbent in a time of peace and prosperity and the Republicans still have the residue of wartime and peacemaking unpopularity on them.