WI Charles d'Anjou-Durazzo was not assassinated? Could a Hungary-Naples Personal Union have lasted?

[Yanez de Gomera]

I am fascinated by the impact that a closer link with Slavic and Magyar culture might have on the Italian Renaissance: "eastern" costumes might even become fashionable for a bit and this might reflect itself in visual arts. Renaissance culture spread to Hungary under Matthias Hunyadi/Corvinus iotl, so things won't change that much, and I doubt that the otl germania influence can completely be substituted by Italian influence (I might be wrong, but there were already sizeable saxon and other German communities in Transilvania and other parts of the Kingdom at that point, right?), but little italian communities in Buda or Knin would be a quite interesting development...

Militarily, Magyar light cavalry could be used to great effect in Italy in tge kind of "guerrilla" actions whose devastating effects on more cumbersome renaissance armies Giovanni de Medici would show a bit later in otl with his Bande Nere (although those were mostly made up of arquebusiers and mostly on foot).

If only there was a way to peacefully bring Venice to an alliance with this "trans-adriatic union"!

 

[Fehérvári]

First of all, let's clear up the sceniario. On the 7th February, 1386, there's an assasination plotted against the King Charles, with Mother-Queen Elisabeth as mastermind. Charles finds out the conspiracy and orders the capturing and imprisonment of Elisabeth and others with keyrole in the plot, such as former Nádor (title similar to viceroy) Miklós Garai. By Queen Mary's ask, Elisabeth is set free, but she's under tight guard.

From this point Charles not just survived the assasination attempt, but asserted firm control over his newly acquired kingdom, since Sigismund of Luxemburg already fled the country much earlier, and only came back IOTL after the death of Charles, he's not a real threat neither.

Further we would see the nullifying of the marriage between Sigismund and Mary, and the marriage between Mary and Charles's son, Ladislaus. Assuming that the accident of Mary doesn't happen, and she doesn't die with her child, we might see a decent Hungaro-Napolitan Anjou lineage forming there.

In this TL, two major opposing faction could form in the region: The Czech-Imperial-Venetian faction and the Napolitan-Hungarian-Genoese. In addition to these, we can add the Teutons and Poland-Lithuania.

Quite an interesting sceniario if you ask me.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

First of all, let's clear up the sceniario. On the 7th February, 1386, there's an assasination plotted against the King Charles, with Mother-Queen Elisabeth as mastermind. Charles finds out the conspiracy and orders the capturing and imprisonment of Elisabeth and others with keyrole in the plot, such as former Nádor (title similar to viceroy) Miklós Garai. By Queen Mary's ask, Elisabeth is set free, but she's under tight guard.

From this point Charles not just survived the assasination attempt, but asserted firm control over his newly acquired kingdom, since Sigismund of Luxemburg already fled the country much earlier, and only came back IOTL after the death of Charles, he's not a real threat neither.

Further we would see the nullifying of the marriage between Sigismund and Mary, and the marriage between Mary and Charles's son, Ladislaus. Assuming that the accident of Mary doesn't happen, and she doesn't die with her child, we might see a decent Hungaro-Napolitan Anjou lineage forming there.

In this TL, two major opposing faction could form in the region: The Czech-Imperial-Venetian faction and the Napolitan-Hungarian-Genoese. In addition to these, we can add the Teutons and Poland-Lithuania.

Quite an interesting sceniario if you ask me.

Of course, a marriage between Ladislaus and Mary makes a lot of sense and would solidify Anjou-Durazzo power in Hungary, thanks for pointing it out! I suppose Elizabeth could be forces into a nunnery, free she is too dangerous.

Genoa has already been utterly defeated in the war of Chioggia, not sure they could lend much help against Venice, at least in the short term.

On the other hand I am afraid that the hold on Naples would not be as solid and, without a marriage with Valentina Visconti, there is no easy leverage to participate in the Visconti "wars of succession" and receive a foothold in very rich northern Italy. (Valentina Visconti's dowry when she married Orléans was 450.000 ducats, the claim on Milan and a small, but strategic County (Ceva) with a yearly rent of 30.000 ducats. As a comparison Ladislaus sold the whole of Dalmatia for 100.000 ducats...

 

[Marko]

Indeed. Even if Charles could secure Hungary it would likely be at the cost of enormous concessions to the magnates and it would be difficult to juggle Balcanic and Italian issues.

@Marko
@MakiRoc
@Fehérvári
What do you think of this scenario?

Thanks for tagging me. I'll check it out when I get back home from work

 

[JonasResende]

Couple questions:

If Carlo/Karoly doesn't die, is Ladislaus going to be his last child? And if he has a second son (Margherita's only 30 when Ladislaus is born, and if Carlo survives, it doesn't rule out him perhaps remarrying), might he make a new split of the inheritance?
Where might Sigismund marry if Maria is taken? Ladislaus' sister, Joanna, perhaps? A Valois princess? I'm not sure who would be seeking an alliance with the House of Luxembourg or of their current allies who would have an eligible daughter.
What happens to Poland TTL? OTL they went their separate way from Hungary by originally choosing Maria and then Jadwiga to succeed Ludwik I/Lajos I. Does Carlo allow this? Can he?
Lastly, how does the survival of the senior house of Anjou affect France/French politics of the day? The plan of Elisabeth of Bosnia was to marry Mary/Jadwiga to a French prince (the duc d'Orléans). Might Carlo see the merit in this plan? Or would he be fearful or setting up a rival claimant to his thrones? And if the marriage goes through, who gets Valentina Visconti?

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Couple questions:

[1]If Carlo/Karoly doesn't die, is Ladislaus going to be his last child? And if he has a second son (Margherita's only 30 when Ladislaus is born, and if Carlo survives, it doesn't rule out him perhaps remarrying), might he make a new split of the inheritance?
[2]Where might Sigismund marry if Maria is taken? Ladislaus' sister, Joanna, perhaps? A Valois princess? I'm not sure who would be seeking an alliance with the House of Luxembourg or of their current allies who would have an eligible daughter.
[3]What happens to Poland TTL? OTL they went their separate way from Hungary by originally choosing Maria and then Jadwiga to succeed Ludwik I/Lajos I. Does Carlo allow this? Can he?
[4]Lastly, how does the survival of the senior house of Anjou affect France/French politics of the day? The plan of Elisabeth of Bosnia was to marry Mary/Jadwiga to a French prince (the duc d'Orléans). Might Carlo see the merit in this plan? Or would he be fearful or setting up a rival claimant to his thrones? And if the marriage goes through, who gets Valentina Visconti?

Since your post raises a lot of very interesting points I will copy @Zagan system of numbering question and answers, which is imho neater than splitting the quote into several parts... Anyways, to the answers!

[1] It should be noted that Carlo and Margherita had three children (the first died in infancy) spaced four years from one another and 9 years had already passed after Ladislao's birth without any pregnancy. It is possible that Margaret could conceive one other time, but I don't think it is likely and there always is a 50% chance of a girl being born...
That said, even if a male heir is indeed born I am not sure the PU will be split: after all Carlo had fought to bring Hungary and Naples both under his rule, he would likely be averse to dividing them so soon. I'd say that in any case Naples would be the junior realm (if neglected there are big risks there, obviously from Louis II d'Anjou (Provence) but also both from Aragonese Sicily and from the Enghien principality of Taranto) unless it somehow manages to expand a lot in Italy.
[2] Joanna is possible, maybe bringing a sizeable dowry (including some territory in Upper Hungary maybe?) to sweeten the loss of the claim on Hungary itself. The marriage would be very valuable in reducing imperial hostility to Anjou-Durazzo Hungary-Naples. It might be difficult to solve some canon law issues, since Mary and Sigismund were already technically married! If Mary or Joanna are not possible as spouses I really don't know who would be the best candidate... In any case a surviving House of Luxemburg would be a welcome divergence from actual history.
[3]That's not really a problem, by the POD Poland and Hungary had already split and I don't see why the otl marriage between Jadwiga and Jogaila/Ladislaus Jagellon would be butterflied away.
[4]I am not sure about the impacts in France to be honest, but Charles would want to strengthen Ladislao's claim by having him marry Mary if possible. About Valentina Visconti, what if she married Sigismund? That would rather change the dynamics of the Italian wars...

 

[JonasResende]

[1] It should be noted that Carlo and Margherita had three children (the first died in infancy) spaced four years from one another and 9 years had already passed after Ladislao's birth without any pregnancy. It is possible that Margaret could conceive one other time, but I don't think it is likely and there always is a 50% chance of a girl being born...
That said, even if a male heir is indeed born I am not sure the PU will be split: after all Carlo had fought to bring Hungary and Naples both under his rule, he would likely be averse to dividing them so soon. I'd say that in any case Naples would be the junior realm (if neglected there are big risks there, obviously from Louis II d'Anjou (Provence) but also both from Aragonese Sicily and from the Enghien principality of Taranto) unless it somehow manages to expand a lot in Italy.
[2] Joanna is possible, maybe bringing a sizeable dowry (including some territory in Upper Hungary maybe?) to sweeten the loss of the claim on Hungary itself. The marriage would be very valuable in reducing imperial hostility to Anjou-Durazzo Hungary-Naples. It might be difficult to solve some canon law issues, since Mary and Sigismund were already technically married! If Mary or Joanna are not possible as spouses I really don't know who would be the best candidate... In any case a surviving House of Luxemburg would be a welcome divergence from actual history.
[3]That's not really a problem, by the POD Poland and Hungary had already split and I don't see why the otl marriage between Jadwiga and Jogaila/Ladislaus Jagellon would be butterflied away.
[4]I am not sure about the impacts in France to be honest, but Charles would want to strengthen Ladislao's claim by having him marry Mary if possible. About Valentina Visconti, what if she married Sigismund? That would rather change the dynamics of the Italian wars...

Thanks
[1] Makes sense that Ladislao and Joanna/Giovanna are likely to remain Carlo's only kids. (I was confusing Ladislao with Ladislaus the Posthumous, thinking he was born close to or after the death of his dad, mea culpa).
[2] I was thinking that Carlo and Ladislao are going to need a loyal regent in Naples/Hungary (when they're not there), so I wonder if Giovanna will be the one to fill that post, particularly after Margherita dies? Otherwise, if Naples/Hungary feels neglected (whether real or imagined) in favor of the other kingdom of the PU it could turn ugly. Giovanna might well be the best option (although IDK much about her personality and relationship with her brother OTL).
[3] I just thought Carlo/Karoly or Lazslo/Ladislao might decide to take it in their heads that if they can't get Italy, they'll go for broke and Poland

Also, I realize this is a slight divergence from the discussion, but if Sigmund marries Giovanna/Valentina and has male issue, how might this affect things long term?
And the same goes for Hungary - Ladislao had no legitimate kids, and Mary's only legitimate child was born prematurely and died at birth, killing his mother - so here, in theory, they have a slightly more flourishing royal family. How might the 14th century look for Hungary and the Holy Roman Empire? Do they go into a sort of Habsburg-France rivalry (in theory, if Carlo/Ladislao goes after several territories in Italy, it would put him at odds with the Empire)? Or do they become allies - if only when it suits both of them and go into cold-war mode otherwise?

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Joanna as a regent strikes me as as terrible idea: her reign in otl was an unmitigated disaster. Joanna was probably quite weak morally and easily fell under the influence of favourites. The aristocracy was already manifesting its anarchic tendencies and Joanna's rule only made things worse, plunging the Kingdom of Naples in civil war after civil war and leading the Florentine ambassadors leaving Naples in 1421 to say something along the lines of "we feel as we just escaped Hell itself".
Maybe the king could spend winters in Naples and summers in Buda (Zara could actually become the de facto capital of the Union), but yes, it would be important to have able and loyal viceroys (easier said than done, I know).

So not great regent material... But there are several interesting marriage perspectives, including Monferrato (as a shield against the Anjou of Provence), Visconti and especially William of Austria (for safe passage between Hungary and Italy and to have an ally against Sigismund in the HRE) who was her husband iotl for some years, but without producing an heir.

About Poland, yeah, that's possible if Naples is lost to Louis II of Anjou or other enemies, but to me it doesn't look very likely: it would need outright conquest and I don't think Hungary would be strong enough at the time.

Sigmund having male issue would be huge for the HRE and Europe and if he marries Valentina Visconti the Empire will have a solid claim to Milan (which is still legally Imperial territory in any case, but being the heir of the Visconti wouldn't hurt) and especially take that away from France, so the whole dynamic of the Italian wars changes, with a France that has no legal claim on Milan and will focus more on Naples, while Spain doesn't get linked to Germany and might look even more to the Atlantic.

It all depends on how things evolve in Italy: there could be a window of opportunity for Naples to reduce the Pope to Latium only and to take control of most of Tuscany in alliance with Milan before the Great Schism ends and then, after Gian Galeazzo's death, come out on top of the fight for his legacy and control most of the rich Po valley and at least some of the Alpine passes before France emerges from the hundred years war.
Territorial continuity with Hungary seems really difficult to achieve though. It probably isn't realistic to have an Italo-Hungarian "empire" by 1500... some could call it ASB. It is much more likely that the union falls apart in one or two generations.

Ps it seems to me that Mary died after a hunting accident which caused her to go into premature labor: it seems something easy to butterfly away.

 

[Fehérvári]

Actually, in Hungary, there was a title, the "nádor", which was very similar to the position of viceroy, but the holder of this office was always member of the estates, and not royal family member. The nádor was appointed by the king with the diet's concern. The nádor was the "president"(can't find better word) of the diet aswell.

So from the Hungarian side, the problem of viceroy is solveable, and if the king doesn't have any trustworthy Napolitan viceroy candidate, technically he can rule from Naples.

 

[Fehérvári]

Hungary and Naples map in 1386
(excluding vassals and dependencies)

 

[MakiRoc]

Actually, in Hungary, there was a title, the "nádor", which was very similar to the position of viceroy, but the holder of this office was always member of the estates, and not royal family member. The nádor was appointed by the king with the diet's concern. The nádor was the "president"(can't find better word) of the diet aswell.

So from the Hungarian side, the problem of viceroy is solveable, and if the king doesn't have any trustworthy Napolitan viceroy candidate, technically he can rule from Naples.

A similar position was held in Croatia by the Ban. Of course there was also the more powerful title of Herceg (Duke) that was held by a royal family member (Charles held that title during the reign of Louis I), but in case there was no Herceg, then you always have a Ban. So you have Croatia taken care of also.

 

[Tibi088]

Actually, in Hungary, there was a title, the "nádor", which was very similar to the position of viceroy, but the holder of this office was always member of the estates, and not royal family member. The nádor was appointed by the king with the diet's concern. The nádor was the "president"(can't find better word) of the diet aswell.

So from the Hungarian side, the problem of viceroy is solveable, and if the king doesn't have any trustworthy Napolitan viceroy candidate, technically he can rule from Naples.

I actualy dont think its a good idea to leave Hungary to the nádor - except you find an especially loyal one who isnt completly incompetent. As you said the position of nádor is held by one of the magnates and leaving the state to be governed by one of them for a long amount of time is not a good idea. I also think that much of the nobility would resent that the king is ruling from abroad, especially as they think that they are the stronger part in the Personal Union.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

I actualy dont think its a good idea to leave Hungary to the nádor - except you find an especially loyal one who isnt completly incompetent. As you said the position of nádor is held by one of the magnates and leaving the state to be governed by one of them for a long amount of time is not a good idea. I also think that much of the nobility would resent that the king is ruling from abroad, especially as they think that they are the stronger part in the Personal Union.

I agree, at least in part and the probem is that the same can be said of Naples, if the king is weak or awy for too long the barons will become more and more independent.

 

[Fehérvári]

A similar position was held in Croatia by the Ban. Of course there was also the more powerful title of Herceg (Duke) that was held by a royal family member (Charles held that title during the reign of Louis I), but in case there was no Herceg, then you always have a Ban. So you have Croatia taken care of also.

The ban was the title of the appointed governors' in the Kingdom of Hungary's attached (conquered) territories, so that's not a Croatia only thing, it applies to the other attached territories of Hungary: Croatia(-Dalmatia), Slavonia, Ozora, Só, Macsó, Barancs, Kucsó, Severin (Szörény), Bosnia, Jajca, Srebernik, Belgrade (Nándorfehérvár), Vidin (Bodony). throughout the ages the number of banates and their territories varied. In this time period there was only three or four Banates though: Croatia, Slavonia, Macsó and maybe Severin.

 

[MakiRoc]

The ban was the title of the appointed governors' in the Kingdom of Hungary's attached (conquered) territories, so that's not a Croatia only thing, it applies to the other attached territories of Hungary: Croatia(-Dalmatia), Slavonia, Ozora, Só, Macsó, Barancs, Kucsó, Severin (Szörény), Bosnia, Jajca, Srebernik, Belgrade (Nándorfehérvár), Vidin (Bodony). throughout the ages the number of banates and their territories varied. In this time period there was only three or four Banates though: Croatia, Slavonia, Macsó and maybe Severin.

Didn't say that the Ban title was exclusively Croatian, just that it was somewhat equivalent to Nádor but in Croatia.
But while we are discussing, comparing the Croatian ban and the others bans is somewhat like comparing apples and oranges. Firstly, Croatia was not a banate, but a kingdom in personal union with Hungary. The Croatian ban title predates this personal union and is not a title inherited from the Hungarians. The Croatian ban was a King appointed official that ruled the kingdom of Croatia (and Dalmatia, sometimes) in his name, commanded his Croatian army and presided over the Sabor (assembly). If there was a royal family member that took over this duty then he was given the title Herceg (Duke).

I actualy dont think its a good idea to leave Hungary to the nádor - except you find an especially loyal one who isnt completly incompetent. As you said the position of nádor is held by one of the magnates and leaving the state to be governed by one of them for a long amount of time is not a good idea. I also think that much of the nobility would resent that the king is ruling from abroad, especially as they think that they are the stronger part in the Personal Union.

You need to have viceroy type officials for such a state. I agree that it is dangerous but it was almost impossible to rule such large and geographically distinct areas with different ethnicities.
Communication was terrible between Hungary on one side and Croatia proper, Dalmatia and Bosnia on the other. Naples would be worse. On the other hand the King could not be at more than one place at a time. You need someone loyal and strong enough to keep the magnates in check and not strong enough to forget that he has a king above him.

 

[Fehérvári]

Didn't say that the Ban title was exclusively Croatian, just that it was somewhat equivalent to Nádor but in Croatia.
But while we are discussing, comparing the Croatian ban and the others bans is somewhat like comparing apples and oranges. Firstly, Croatia was not a banate, but a kingdom in personal union with Hungary. The Croatian ban title predates this personal union and is not a title inherited from the Hungarians. The Croatian ban was a King appointed official that ruled the kingdom of Croatia (and Dalmatia, sometimes) in his name, commanded his Croatian army and presided over the Sabor (assembly). If there was a royal family member that took over this duty then he was given the title Herceg (Duke).

Well this question is debated to this day, but actually there are more evidence supporting the conquest of Croatia, than the ones supporting the idea of personal union. One of the most important argument is the fact that the hungarian kings didn't become vassals to the pope, even though the Kingdom of Croatia was a vassal of the Holy See. And actually Croatia was a banate of the Kingdom of Hungary.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

In any case, if we assume thag Charles survives the plot and quickly liquidates most of its prominent supporters there would not be the war against John Horvat and Trvtko of Bosnia. Could a Hungarian contingent fight at Kosovo Polje? If they are present they might be enough to turn the tide, so the serbian statelets might fall into the Hungarian rather than Ottoman orbit.

---

A French marriage (Louis d'Orleans) was mentioned earlier for Mary, but it doesn't seem very likely to me, given that the Hungarian clergy favored the Roman rather than Avignonese papacy (which supported Louis d'Anjou claim on Naples) at the time and in any case the marriage between Sigismund and Mary had already been celebrated. For a period Louis apparently signed as "Louis King of Hungary", which is another interesting pod in itself...

Could the marriage between Mary and Sigismund be declared null as ratum sed non consummatum? Would Ladislaus position be actually strenghtened by marrying Mary (at this point basically a powerless almost prisoner) instead of Valentina Visconti, meaning an alliance with very rich and powerful Milan, extremely useful against Florence and Venice?

It is a quite complex dynastic knot to disentangle, because Sigismund doesn't seem to me to be a man that would just give up his rights and recognise Charles... Maybe he could be given Pressburg as a dowry for Mary in exchange for renouncing other claims?

In Naples there is also the issue of an overly powerful vassal who is friendly with Louis d'Anjou (Provence), Raimondo Orsini del Balzo of Taranto. Iotl he warred for a long time against Ladislao and controlled most of Apulia. In the end Tarantine resistance was only defeated when, after his death during a siege by Neapolitan forces, Ladislao married his wife Maria d'Enghien (holding her as a de facto prisoner after that). If Carlo/Karol lives longer they won't immediately rebel, but they should be disposed off and their lands taken back by the crown as soon as possible.

 

[MakiRoc]

Well this question is debated to this day, but actually there are more evidence supporting the conquest of Croatia, than the ones supporting the idea of personal union. One of the most important argument is the fact that the hungarian kings didn't become vassals to the pope, even though the Kingdom of Croatia was a vassal of the Holy See. And actually Croatia was a banate of the Kingdom of Hungary.

There is no serious debate on whether or not Croatia was legally a seperate kingdom. Coloman was crowned seperatly in Biograd as King of Croatia. This is a well known documented event. His successors were also crowned seperatly up to the 14th century (when they came up with Lands of the crown of st. Stephen). This was not even disputed later by the Habsburgs. That Croatia was a minor player in this union and overshadowed by Hungary, this is not disputed, but dejure it was a separate kingdom with separate laws.
What is disputed is Pacta Conventa (forgery or not), how Coloman won the succession crisis (full military defeat or partial occupation that ended with a favorable peace deal with the opposing Croatian nobles), but this is not relevant to this thread.
No Croatia was not a banate of Hungary. Slavonia was, but Croatia was not. The only Croatian banate that existed was the one in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia.

In any case, if we assume thag Charles survives the plot and quickly liquidates most of its prominent supporters there would not be the war against John Horvat and Trvtko of Bosnia. Could a Hungarian contingent fight at Kosovo Polje? If they are present they might be enough to turn the tide, so the serbian statelets might fall into the Hungarian rather than Ottoman orbit.

Now this would be an interesting turn of events. I think it is possible.

 

[Halagaz]

In any case, if we assume thag Charles survives the plot and quickly liquidates most of its prominent supporters there would not be the war against John Horvat and Trvtko of Bosnia. Could a Hungarian contingent fight at Kosovo Polje? If they are present they might be enough to turn the tide, so the serbian statelets might fall into the Hungarian rather than Ottoman orbit.

Interesting idea. OTOH, can it be assumed that Charles would form an alliance with Serbia and undertake a proactive defense policy against the Ottomans?
I suppose there's at least one Angevin follower who participated in the Battle of Kosovo: Ivan Paližna, the Hospitalier prior of Vrana, with a small detachment of his knights. But his presence there didn't really have anything to do with Charles.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Interesting idea. OTOH, can it be assumed that Charles would form an alliance with Serbia and undertake a proactive defense policy against the Ottomans?
I suppose there's at least one Angevin follower who participated in the Battle of Kosovo: Ivan Paližna, the Hospitalier prior of Vrana, with a small detachment of his knights. But his presence there didn't really have anything to do with Charles.

Well, there is the religious barrier between Catholics and Orthodoxes to consider and the fact that there will likely be more imminent problems for Hungary-Naples, both in Italy and possibly from Bohemia and Poland.

In any case the battle was very close iotl and, while the fact that the Ottomans have great reserves even if that army is destroyed still stands, a possible Serbian victory is bound to cause interesting divergences, for example in relation to a
Nikopolis equivalent.