WI Charles d'Anjou-Durazzo was not assassinated? Could a Hungary-Naples Personal Union have lasted?

[Yanez de Gomera]

Sorry if I am a bit repetitive in my choice of topics...

The POD would be Charles d'Anjou-Durazzo (II of Hungary and III of Naples) getting good wind of Elizabeth of Bosnia's plot to kill him and thwarts it, killing the would be assassins and imprisoning/forcing into convent both Elizabeth and Mary.

He seemed to have a good degree of support from the Hungarian barons and was in more or less complete control of the Kingdom of Naples: could he manage to keep control of both his reigns and pass them to his ambitious son Ladislaus?

A power controlling both sides of the Adria would certainly encounter the hostility of Venice, then there is the mess of the papal schism to consider, ti say nothing of the looming Ottoman menace and potential rapacious interests from Poland and the Holy Roman Empire, but a Naples-Hungary union (eventually Italy-Hungary?) seems to me to have great ATL potential.

Another possibility would likely be under Louis I, if his 1348 campaign was not thwarted by the plague (maybe delaying the Black Death for a season by sinking that Genosse ship from Caffa?)

 

[CaliGuy]

Sorry if I am a bit repetitive in my choice of topics...

The POD would be Charles d'Anjou-Durazzo (II of Hungary and III of Naples) getting good wind of Elizabeth of Bosnia's plot to kill him and thwarts it, killing the would be assassins and imprisoning/forcing into convent both Elizabeth and Mary.

He seemed to have a good degree of support from the Hungarian barons and was in more or less complete control of the Kingdom of Naples: could he manage to keep control of both his reigns and pass them to his ambitious son Ladislaus?

A power controlling both sides of the Adria would certainly encounter the hostility of Venice, then there is the mess of the papal schism to consider, ti say nothing of the looming Ottoman menace and potential rapacious interests from Poland and the Holy Roman Empire, but a Naples-Hungary union (eventually Italy-Hungary?) seems to me to have great ATL potential.

Another possibility would likely be under Louis I, if his 1348 campaign was not thwarted by the plague (maybe delaying the Black Death for a season by sinking that Genosse ship from Caffa?)

Question--could we see an eventual attempt to conquer northern Italy in this TL? After all, northern Italy is in between Hungary and Naples and control of it would help the Anjous control and manage all of the territories under their rule.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Question--could we see an eventual attempt to conquer northern Italy in this TL? After all, northern Italy is in between Hungary and Naples and control of it would help the Anjous control and manage all of the territories under their rule.

That is a sensible medium term goal, and a polity that is centered on the Adria would be quite interesting to see, wouldn't it?
There is however a slight problem with that, namely the Most Serene Republic of Venice sits across those lands and they are not an easy nut to crack, as the Chioggia War just showed in 1282. There are also the domains of Visconti Milan that are a problem (until they collapse following Gianni Galeazzo death, hopefully Hungary-Naples would be strong enough to submit the cities of Veneto before Venice does) and lets not forget that most of those areas are areas at least nominally part of the HRE...

It would be extremely important to control Ancona though: the triangle between Ancona, Zara and Bari/Manfredonia/Trani will be the main avenue of coomincation for the double kingdom, which again raises the problem of how to avoid an hostile Venice easily severing that link. Another consequence is the likely relative decline of Naples when compared with Apulia not cities, which would not necessarily be a bad thing, given how parasitic the growth of the capital became in later centuries.

This obviously assumes "tamer" Ottomans...

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Sorry for the double post, I hoped there was a bit more interest in this...

One of the main objectives of the wi is giving someone as interesting as Ladislaus of Durazzo a stronger powerbase when he becomes king, at a moment where a great leader could have exploited the international situation and even come close to unify Italy. Gian Galeazzo came close to control all the center north, but in the end he failed and his was a bit of a personal state.

At this point it is also not yet a given that the Ottomans will come to control all the Balkans.

I would need some good sources (German, English or Italian) on Hungary in that time period, because I am not very much up to date on the Kingdom's internal affairs in the Anjevin period (appart from the fact that Louis is considered a great king).

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

I have to say, this would force Hungary to refocus on the Adriatic, which suggests an increase in the size of Hungarian/Maygar communities on the coasts. (Joy, a more fractious Balkans )

But I do agree that this would probably create a push to take over northern Italy, in fact, the Hungarians are likely to look for a war with Venice. I think Venice would clock onto this and attempt to walk lightly around Hungary.

 

[Joshuapooleanox]

I have to say, this would force Hungary to refocus on the Adriatic, which suggests an increase in the size of Hungarian/Maygar communities on the coasts. (Joy, a more fractious Balkans )

But I do agree that this would probably create a push to take over northern Italy, in fact, the Hungarians are likely to look for a war with Venice. I think Venice would clock onto this and attempt to walk lightly around Hungary.

The Venetians and Hungarians always fought over Lika and Dalmatia, that's just geopolitics for you. But yeah, it would be far worse like this. ALSO SOUTHERN ITALY HAD A PERSONAL UNION WITH HUNGARY TOO?

WHAT IS UP WITH SOUTHERN ITALY AND PERSONAL UNIONS?! IT'S THE SLUT OF EARLY MODERN GEOPOLITICS!

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

The Venetians and Hungarians always fought over Lika and Dalmatia, that's just geopolitics for you. But yeah, it would be far worse like this. ALSO SOUTHERN ITALY HAD A PERSONAL UNION WITH HUNGARY TOO?

WHAT IS UP WITH SOUTHERN ITALY AND PERSONAL UNIONS?! IT'S THE SLUT OF EARLY MODERN GEOPOLITICS!

The P.U. with Hungary was more virtual than anything. About the other ones, the Angevins were quite good at setting up cadet branches, only problem they spent the XIV century trying to kill each other more than cooperating...

Reading a bit more on the subject, it seems that Sigismondo would enforce with the arms his wife's claims and I doubt Charles could try to oppose him on the field of battle and win, but could an arrangement be found? Maybe Charles could renounce to Hungary itself and keep Dalmatia, Croatia and Slavonia... No gold mines and still hated by Venice, but maybe a more manageable territory and enough to give Ladislaus a chance for hegemony in Italy?

 

[Joshuapooleanox]

The P.U. with Hungary was more virtual than anything. About the other ones, the Angevins were quite good at setting up cadet branches, only problem they spent the XIV century trying to kill each other more than cooperating...

Reading a bit more on the subject, it seems that Sigismondo would enforce with the arms his wife's claims and I doubt Charles could try to oppose him on the field of battle and win, but could an arrangement be found? Maybe Charles could renounce to Hungary itself and keep Dalmatia, Croatia and Slavonia... No gold mines and still hated by Venice, but maybe a more manageable territory and enough to give Ladislaus a chance for hegemony in Italy?

Possibly, plus that weakens Venice by them not getting Dalmatia. And, if the Ottomans still rise and Byzantines die gives them more land to fight the Ottomans with.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Possibly, plus that weakens Venice by them not getting Dalmatia. And, if the Ottomans still rise and Byzantines die gives them more land to fight the Ottomans with.

In otl Ladislaus sold it to Venice for 100.000 ducats, which were useful to pay his mercenaries and take control of most of the Papal States, ITTL Charles dies of natural death and so hopefully there is not yet another civil war, reducing the financial problems Naples had. Obviously keeping Hungary (or, better, Hungary keeping Naples) would give access to gold mines and lots of revenues, but also many more problems to spend them on, namely Ottomans and Imperial/Bohemian threats.

 

[Joshuapooleanox]

In otl Ladislaus sold it to Venice for 100.000 ducats, which were useful to pay his mercenaries and take control of most of the Papal States, ITTL Charles dies of natural death and so hopefully there is not yet another civil war, reducing the financial problems Naples had. Obviously keeping Hungary (or, better, Hungary keeping Naples) would give access to gold mines and lots of revenues, but also many more problems to spend them on, namely Ottomans and Imperial/Bohemian threats.

That's gonna get messy along the Slovak and Danube borders.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

That's gonna get messy along the Slovak and Danube borders.

Indeed. Even if Charles could secure Hungary it would likely be at the cost of enormous concessions to the magnates and it would be difficult to juggle Balcanic and Italian issues.

@Marko
@MakiRoc
@Fehérvári
What do you think of this scenario?

 

[Joshuapooleanox]

Indeed. Even if Charles could secure Hungary it would likely be at the cost of enormous concessions to the magnates and it would be difficult to juggle Balcanic and Italian issues.

@Marko
@MakiRoc
@Fehérvári
What do you think of this scenario?

I'm liking it!

 

[MakiRoc]

Indeed. Even if Charles could secure Hungary it would likely be at the cost of enormous concessions to the magnates and it would be difficult to juggle Balcanic and Italian issues.

@Marko
@MakiRoc
@Fehérvári
What do you think of this scenario?

If Charles survives then it is possible that he keeps everything together. He had huge support in Croatia and Dalmatia because of his excellent governorship during the reign of Louis I (the Dalmatian cities, especially Zadar/Zara went through somewhat of a golden age at that time). If my memory serves me right Charles took the throne of Naples with a mostly Croatian army, so he was well connected on the eastern side of the Adriatic. Hungary proper may be a more tougher challenge to hold but I believe it was achievable for him, especially since most of the nobles despised the idea of a female ruler.

A power controlling both sides of the Adria would certainly encounter the hostility of Venice, then there is the mess of the papal schism to consider, ti say nothing of the looming Ottoman menace and potential rapacious interests from Poland and the Holy Roman Empire, but a Naples-Hungary union (eventually Italy-Hungary?) seems to me to have great ATL potential.

Indeed. Such a union made the Venetians pee in their pants. That's why they favored Mary/Sigismund instead of Charles/Ladislaus.

I have to say, this would force Hungary to refocus on the Adriatic, which suggests an increase in the size of Hungarian/Maygar communities on the coasts. (Joy, a more fractious Balkans )

The Dalmatian cities and Naples already had good economic and cultural ties. A Hungarian-Naples Union would take these ties to a more higher level. It probably could shift the focus of the King more toward the Adriatic. Maybe even move his court on the Adriatic.
I don't see Hungarians settling en mass in Dalmatia. There were legal and practical reasons why such a thing wouldn't happen.

Reading a bit more on the subject, it seems that Sigismondo would enforce with the arms his wife's claims and I doubt Charles could try to oppose him on the field of battle and win, but could an arrangement be found? Maybe Charles could renounce to Hungary itself and keep Dalmatia, Croatia and Slavonia

Mary renounced the throne in favor of Charles if my memory serves me right, so legally Sigismund couldn't do squat while Charles was alive. Prevent his assassination, and you prevent a lot of trouble. Of course Charles wouldn't be out of the woods yet. He would have to clean house in Hungary to stabilize his reign.

In otl Ladislaus sold it to Venice for 100.000 ducats, which were useful to pay his mercenaries and take control of most of the Papal States, ITTL Charles dies of natural death and so hopefully there is not yet another civil war, reducing the financial problems Naples had. Obviously keeping Hungary (or, better, Hungary keeping Naples) would give access to gold mines and lots of revenues, but also many more problems to spend them on, namely Ottomans and Imperial/Bohemian threats.

I believe I read somewhere that Ladislaus was negotiating with the Sultan to marry his daughter, in an attempt to gain another ally against Sigismund. If he was able to get the Ottomans on his side, things could have gone super weird.

 

[Byz]

WHAT IS UP WITH SOUTHERN ITALY AND PERSONAL UNIONS?! IT'S THE SLUT OF EARLY MODERN GEOPOLITICS!

Dude, it was inhabited by Italians who were conquered by a bunch of Frenchmen. What did you expect?

 

[JackLumber]

Dude, it was inhabited by Italians who were conquered by a bunch of Frenchmen. What did you expect?

Ahh but it's even stranger still
It was a bunch of French norsemen

 

[Tibi088]

About gold mines in Hungary: they are past their peak - still pretty neat at this time but production is winding down.

The real issue is that OTL the magnates became really powerful under Sigismund. If Ladislaus can prevent that than Hungary will be very different than OTL - a much bigger asset to any ruler. At least till the Ottomans arrive - after that it will be a massive drain on resources.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

About gold mines in Hungary: they are past their peak - still pretty neat at this time but production is winding down.

The real issue is that OTL the magnates became really powerful under Sigismund. If Ladislaus can prevent that than Hungary will be very different than OTL - a much bigger asset to any ruler. At least till the Ottomans arrive - after that it will be a massive drain on resources.

There is a window of at least fifty years before the Ottomans become a real danger for Hungary and almost a century before they are an existential threat: plenty of time to puts one's house in order...

A very intelligent move on Charles part would be an alliance with Gian Galeazzo Visconti, sealed by the betrothal of Ladislao with Valentina Visconti. With Hungary the alliance might seem interesting, although obviously France would always have the advantage here, so a secondary POD would be a souring of relations between Milan and Paris (or the pope could be persuaded not to give a dispensation for that marriage).

The Catholic Scism offers many opportunities, both to seize parts of the papal lands and to acquire prestige by organising a council.

I still have the problem of how to deal with Sigismund without giving up too much royal power to get the Hungarian magnates firmly on Charles' side.

Someone has ideas on how to deal with Venice short of a total war that the Lady of the Adria might yet win?

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

There is a window of at least fifty years before the Ottomans become a real danger for Hungary and almost a century before they are an existential threat: plenty of time to puts one's house in order...

Plus, if Hungary can refeorm and increase its strength, it can dominate Bosnia and Serbia on land - before the Ottomans do, and play benefactor to both the Bulgarians and Romans. Push here and there, and suddenly there are buffer states, not Ottoman territories. It is hardly time to be panicking about Ottoman rule.

A very intelligent move on Charles part would be an alliance with Gian Galeazzo Visconti, sealed by the betrothal of Ladislao with Valentina Visconti. With Hungary the alliance might seem interesting, although obviously France would always have the advantage here, so a secondary POD would be a souring of relations between Milan and Paris (or the pope could be persuaded not to give a dispensation for that marriage).

The Catholic Scism offers many opportunities, both to seize parts of the papal lands and to acquire prestige by organising a council.

I still have the problem of how to deal with Sigismund without giving up too much royal power to get the Hungarian magnates firmly on Charles' side.

Someone has ideas on how to deal with Venice short of a total war that the Lady of the Adria might yet win?

Build up allies that would rather partner with Hungary than Venice. I alluded to it above, but the biggest way to hurt Venice, without directly going to war with them, is to supplant them in trade. Sure its post-Zara and it is in a bad way, but this Hungary, with an Adriatic focus can throw resources into the Dalmatian cities to have them trade for Hungary rather than Venice. Partner that with an agreement with Genoa, and that starts to weaken Venetian markets, and therefore Venice itself.

Next Hungary can try and turn the charitable act of saving the Romans from the Ottomans into a security plan for themselves. Convince Genoa, Poland, Austria, AND/OR others into an earlier, larger crusade under clearer leadership than the crusades of OTL, and Hungary-Naples can create the ideal buffer states for its protection in the south, and then work with them to supplant Venetian trade to the Black Sea. If successful, Hungary sets itself up as Hegemon of the Balkans, gets some goodly prestige from being victorious against the Ottomans, and weakens its other target - Northern Italy.

So yeah, Genoa should probably be a long-term ally of this Hungary.

 

[MakiRoc]

I alluded to it above, but the biggest way to hurt Venice, without directly going to war with them, is to supplant them in trade. Sure its post-Zara and it is in a bad way, but this Hungary, with an Adriatic focus can throw resources into the Dalmatian cities to have them trade for Hungary rather than Venice.

This was already happening in OTL. Dalmatian cities were already flourishing during Louis I reign when Charles was viceroy, and it continued when Charles took over. The King was making good money from trade. You only need to prevent civil war to keep the money flowing.
I don't understand the "post-Zara" comment. Zara in OTL already had a revival during this period. Some would argue that it was it's second golden age.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

This was already happening in OTL. Dalmatian cities were already flourishing during Louis I reign when Charles was viceroy, and it continued when Charles took over. The King was making good money from trade. You only need to prevent civil war to keep the money flowing.
I don't understand the "post-Zara" comment. Zara in OTL already had a revival during this period. Some would argue that it was it's second golden age.

Mea Culpa, I didn't know Zara had a recovery post-1200s. I was directly referring to 120(2/3/4?)