WI: Chafee Challenges Bush

What If Lincoln Chafee (who had considered running in New Hampshire on an anti-war platform) had indeed challenged George W. for the GOP nomination in 2004? How far could his campaign go?
 
What If Lincoln Chafee (who had considered running in New Hampshire on an anti-war platform) had indeed challenged George W. for the GOP nomination in 2004? How far could his campaign go?

I can't see it going anywhere. Chafee is one of those New England Republicans like Olympia Snowe who is really just a Democrat who accidentally put an R next to his name. He is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, anti-death penalty, pro-environmental regulation, anti-war, pro-tax hikes, anti-war, etc. That may count as "Republican" in Rhode Island, but not anywhere else. It would be a minor irritation, but he would get stomped repeatedly in primaries until he finally dropped out. Keep in mind that Bush was still very popular amongst Republicans at this point. Though he had lost a bit of his popularity amongst Democrats and Independents, he hadn't yet gone into the tail-spin that he did by midway through his second term. Chafee might get a bit of media coverage out of it, just because it would be an interesting story, but there's no way he could ever make the race even remotely close.
 
I also can't see Chafee getting that far. His campaign might create minor tremors after early declaration of candidacy but he would essentially have no chance outside of Rhode Island.
 
No chance. He would have no chance in the Republican base due to being a New England moderate. He'd get some media attention, but he will never get more than single digits outside of New England.
 
No chance. He wouldn't get off the ground. Chafee would be targeted by the SAM belt against which so many are defenseless, known as Rove & Co.
 
The Rove machine would tear him a new one and he'd be lucky to have a political career left after the experience. The Republican right would have made him a poster boy for smacking the Rinos for good.
 
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