Kaiser Wilhelm
Banned
How viable is Italy aligning with the CP and would it change the outcome of the war, with differing POD’s, if possible?
How viable is Italy aligning with the CP and would it change the outcome of the war, with differing POD’s, if possible?
Italy plays both sides off of each other in exchange for ever-larger promises of territory and eventually joins in 1917 in exchange for Corsica, Tunisia, Malta, parts of Dalmatia, Nice, perhaps Djibouti and/or another colony, and a random small chunk of southeastern France.
How dependent was Italy on imports? Would they suffer from the blockade?
It all depends on when. The most reasonable case for Italy joining the CP is similar to their joining WWII OTL, jumping in at the last second on a collapsing France. That's probably the most beneficial for Italy, get a few years of making money hand over fist as a neutral, then short march through Southern France to grab territory and concessions at the victors table
Italy being neutral helps the CP a great deal. For one Italy is a hole in the blockade, Italy can serve as a middleman for goods to the CP, taking its own cut of course, this helps the CP quite a bit. Without Italy A-H has the troops free to finish off the Balkan front in 1915, and is able to properly shore up their lines in 1916 vis a vis Russia, preventing the Brusilov disaster and keeping Romania neutral. As such without the Brusilov disaster Germany has a reserve to use in the west, and either keeps up at Verdun or does the counterattack at Arras. This is probably their best shot at winning the war, if they feel confident enough that the long term situation favors them, and don't do anything stupid to get the US in the war. Assuming that happens, Russia is probably off the board by early summer 1917, if not spring, and Germany can launch a major fall offensive in 1917 and still have a reserve left for a spring offensive in 1918
My understanding is the biggest import was coal from the UK and I have no good notion if Germany can get her coal to Italy so I believe Italy is unwilling to risk going cold. This is why Italy is deemed dependent on Britain, if Britain is at war then Italy can be pushed to join the Entente.
How about Italy's African colonial empire? Undoubtedly, the Ethiopians would declare war on the CP in order to annex Italian Eritrea with financial and material support from the Entente and you might see a joint Anglo-Ethiopian invasion of Italian Somaliland. The Ethiopian Empire might send European-trained Expeditionary Forces to German East Africa, North Africa and perhaps even Europe, the latter being attached to the French Army.
Ethiopia certainly has the manpower to do so and it could send at the very least, a regiment of European-trained men to other fronts. Could Italy retain any of her colonies? Perhaps Italian Somaliland?Ethiopia might declare war to Italy but would it be strong enough doing much?
But Italy surely would lost all of its colonies.
Ethiopia certainly has the manpower to do so and it could send at the very least, a regiment of European-trained men to other fronts. Could Italy retain any of her colonies? Perhaps Italian Somaliland?
Could the Italian colonial government in any of the colonies successfully negotiate with the Entente? I don't think the Entente will be too willing to use more men and material in another African Theatre, Ethiopia has probably already declared war on Italy and seized Eritrea but Italian Somaliland and Libya might be able stay relatively intact if their colonial government is willing to stay neutral in World War 1.How would it be supplied? The Entente firmly control the Suez and Aden and rule the waves on all fronts outside MAYBE the Med. and Baltic. Italy's colonial holdings are hopelessly isolated.