WI: Catholic/Habsburg Victory in the Thirty Years War?

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
Hate to be that guy, but what are the circumstances when they win? Do the Catholics capture Berlin? Does Spain recapture the Netherlands? Do they invade Sweden?

It's an interesting POD. I'll take a stab at it, but I'm by no means all that knowledgeable about the period, and there are more expert board members who I hope will contribute.

Westphalian sovereignty would be butterflied away, so the legal nature of the state and sovereignty would be different in the short term. The HRE is salvageable and could be centralised into the unified German behemoth that upset Europe centuries later, except it's Catholic and possibly under Spanish Hapsburg orders, which is bound to create problems later. With no guarantee of tolerance for Germany's religious diversity, German Protestants will probably also want to emigrate in large numbers when settler colonies begin.
 
Allow me to join in being 'that guy'. How do they "win"? It should be pointed out that at various points in the early stages of the war, the Habsburgs had essentially "won"--beaten their foes, scattered their armies, occupied their territories--and in the end it turned to dust and ashes in their mouth, all because Ferdinand II insisted on pushing things too far, alarming people and bringing in new combatants. A large part of ending the war with the successes they did achieve--and believe me, despite the myth the Austrian Habsburgs came out of the war in much better shape than they entered it--came from having a leadership that was willing to accept realistic gains instead of pushing for untenable ones.
 
Hate to be that guy, but what are the circumstances when they win? Do the Catholics capture Berlin? Does Spain recapture the Netherlands? Do they invade Sweden?
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the latter two don't happen. But you do bring up a good point of a centralized Germany, one that is at first dominated by Spain thus the Spanish are yet again dominant (or the Hapsburgs at least) keeping France at bay with a much larger encirclement.
 
Well up to the French intervention in 1635 the Habsburgs did do fairly well. I mean the 1635 Peace of Prague ended the civil war aspect of the thirty years war. So if France can be kept out (perhaps another religious civil war?) the Habsburgs could win in Germany, if Sweden is the only opponent. That being said IDK about the Netherlands. I doubt Spain could retake the entire Netherlands but they could end up doing better than OTL. I mean Cardinal-Infante Fernando did a good job as General between 1634 and 37 so without a French army threatening his flank the Cardinal could possibly do better against the Dutch. Or we could avoid assassinating von Wallenstein. He was a very good General and turned the tide in favor of the Catholics several times.
 
Easiest way is to buy the swedes off before they get seriously involved. Bogislav XIV will probably die without issue and Gustavus Adolphus is his brother in law. Have GAs heir inherit the duchy and the swedes will take their marbles and go away most likely. The French are unable to get involved at this early date and the baltic coast is one bridge too far anyway which Wallenstein came to realize. Without any hope of outside intervention the other protestant lords will most likely fall in line. It wont be a WW2 total victory but it´ll be the best the emperor can hope for.
 
Easiest way is to buy the swedes off before they get seriously involved. Bogislav XIV will probably die without issue and Gustavus Adolphus is his brother in law. Have GAs heir inherit the duchy and the swedes will take their marbles and go away most likely. The French are unable to get involved at this early date and the baltic coast is one bridge too far anyway which Wallenstein came to realize. Without any hope of outside intervention the other protestant lords will most likely fall in line. It wont be a WW2 total victory but it´ll be the best the emperor can hope for.

Even better would be to have the Danish and the Swedish go to war, thus keeping both Denmark and Sweden from intervening.
 
Even better would be to have the Danish and the Swedish go to war, thus keeping both Denmark and Sweden from intervening.

THat would be difficult. After Knäred noone of the participants had ay interest in going at each other again. The swedes turned east in their interests and the danish south. There would require something spectacular to get them to change their minds at that time and handwaving a war because "they hate each other lolz" is somewhat lacking. There arent really any bones of contention at that time.
 
THat would be difficult. After Knäred noone of the participants had ay interest in going at each other again. The swedes turned east in their interests and the danish south. There would require something spectacular to get them to change their minds at that time and handwaving a war because "they hate each other lolz" is somewhat lacking. There arent really any bones of contention at that time.

What about the Skåneland region? Could that become a bone of concentration? Or was that not a problem area at the time? The only other thing I can think of would be Poland being more successful in its war with Sweden, thus forcing the Swedes to focus there rather then in Germany.
 
What about the Skåneland region? Could that become a bone of concentration? Or was that not a problem area at the time? The only other thing I can think of would be Poland being more successful in its war with Sweden, thus forcing the Swedes to focus there rather then in Germany.
Sort of a "common enemy" thing here, they were both protestant nations (Sweden and Denmark) with ambitions in Germany that couldnt be met with a strong central government so splitting germany like OTL was a good approach. Plus Denmark shares a land border with the Empire so i don't think they'll be starting a war to the north when one in the south is possible if not likely at most times.

BTW Scania was part of Denmark until 1658, so it COULD be a point of tension, just not likely until the war is over.
 
I am not sure if a successful Austrian Hapsburg entity would be dominated by the Spanish, certainly not for long. The Spaniards were dominant IIRC because they so often had to bail out the Austrian ones with troops and/or money. Here, would the successful one need such bailing out?
And, they could concentrate on building up "Germany" while the Spanish still have the Netherlands, France and England to worry about.
 
I am not sure if a successful Austrian Hapsburg entity would be dominated by the Spanish, certainly not for long. The Spaniards were dominant IIRC because they so often had to bail out the Austrian ones with troops and/or money. Here, would the successful one need such bailing out?
And, they could concentrate on building up "Germany" while the Spanish still have the Netherlands, France and England to worry about.
thats just it they would dominate for long, it would end up reversed.
the point is Germany would be really strong, and spain wasn't exactly a push over back then either.
 
I am not sure if a successful Austrian Hapsburg entity would be dominated by the Spanish, certainly not for long. The Spaniards were dominant IIRC because they so often had to bail out the Austrian ones with troops and/or money. Here, would the successful one need such bailing out?
And, they could concentrate on building up "Germany" while the Spanish still have the Netherlands, France and England to worry about.

With an Holy Roman Empire at peace, being re centralized and dominated by the Catholics and the Imperial Habsburgs we might see a the two Branches on a more equal footing with each other. If anything the Emperor might offer aid to Spain for the Eighty Years war. Speaking of the Spanish-Dutch war, what would happen to the Netherlands with a Catholic Victory in the Thirty Years' war? Would Spain retake a part of the Netherlands? Or would their be no difference?

thats just it they would dominate for long, it would end up reversed.
the point is Germany would be really strong, and spain wasn't exactly a push over back then either.

The main problem Spain has is its lack of heirs. Spain went into decline during the end of Philip IV's reign and continued into the reign of Carlos II. a Catholic victory could butterfly Baltasar Carlos' death then maybe we would see Spain recover or at least not decline so quickly.
 
With an Holy Roman Empire at peace, being re centralized and dominated by the Catholics and the Imperial Habsburgs we might see a the two Branches on a more equal footing with each other. If anything the Emperor might offer aid to Spain for the Eighty Years war. Speaking of the Spanish-Dutch war, what would happen to the Netherlands with a Catholic Victory in the Thirty Years' war? Would Spain retake a part of the Netherlands? Or would their be no difference?



The main problem Spain has is its lack of heirs. Spain went into decline during the end of Philip IV's reign and continued into the reign of Carlos II. a Catholic victory could butterfly Baltasar Carlos' death then maybe we would see Spain recover or at least not decline so quickly.

Spain isn't gonna retake the netherlands, and probably won't gain much if anything in the low countries. The dutch had a good war machine back then backed by the best banking system the world had seen not to mention proximity to england, dutch naval supremecy.

i assume spain may (temporarily) recover, but its problems aren't just political but the fact that their countries geography wasn't meant to keep up with the northern European powers and so they will be surpassed, by the 1700s england and france can feed themselves (for the most part.)

On the part of heir, there are ways to help that but its possible that they wouldn't work and that these people didn't have heirs for a reason.
 
Last edited:
Top