WI: Castro's proposal for a South Yemen, Ethiopian, and Somali Federation came true?

Ismail

Banned
In 1977 Fidel Castro arranged a meeting between Mengistu Haile Mariam of Ethiopia, Mohamed Siad Barre of Somalia, and Salem Rubayi Ali of South Yemen. During this time the Somali Democratic Republic was condemning Ethiopia over its treatment of the Somali majority in the Ogaden region of the country, and war would erupt months later between the two states in which the Soviets and Cubans would side with the Ethiopians.

Before this, however, Castro proposed an ambitious federation in which Ethiopia, Somalia and South Yemen (which had Yemeni populations in both Ethiopia and Somalia) would federate along with an autonomous Eritrea and autonomous Ogaden region (possibly a part of Somalia within the federation). Castro also hoped that the federation would encompass a socialist Djibouti one day. The Soviets expressed considerable interest in the plan and sought to make it work and Ethiopia was willing to go along with it (the South Yemenis didn't seem too interested) but Barre condemned it and called Mengistu a "fascist," and the two countries went to war soon after resulting in the proposed federation never occurring.

What if Barre (or someone else in his shoes) dropped his opposition to the plan and both Somalia and Ethiopia federated, with possibly South Yemen joining or having an associated relationship? 1970's and 80's Ethiopia was beset by various tribal rebellions IRL, and of course clan warfare (fanned by the Ethiopians IRL) in Somalia turned that country towards chaos in 1991, so the tasks of trying to unite all of these distinct ethnic and tribal groups (which were already unruly) would be quite a task.
 
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I imagine that it would disunite fairly quickly given the long standing animosity between the various ethnic groups involved. And then you'd have the East African equivalent of the Yugoslav civil war. The other alternative would be to have a dictatorship where one nationality effectively ruled the others in an imperial manner, as in the USSR. The problem with that coming to fruition would be that Ethiopia lacked (and lacks) the military strength to pull something like that off. Rebels would easily be able to find international backing.
 
Without getting into absolute detail on a first post, I think the federation would likely be as short-lived as whatever dictator rules over it. Implications for more modern times however could be huge, especially if a Yugoslav-like war envelops the region. If Ethiopia ends up slit off that's big butterflies for African politics.

On the other side, a federation like this makes sense economically as all these regions have long held strong trade links.
 

Ismail

Banned
The problem with that coming to fruition would be that Ethiopia lacked (and lacks) the military strength to pull something like that off. Rebels would easily be able to find international backing.
Ethiopia was actually in a horrible situation military-wise. It hadn't yet transitioned to receiving significant Soviet aid (though it soon would), and its army was disoriented owing to rebellions. When the Somalis (who had, IIRC, the largest army in Africa at the time) invaded they quickly overran Ethiopian forces in the Ogaden. Had the Soviets and Cubans (+ South Yemenis) not intervened the Ethiopians would have lost the war (and it is quite possible that the Derg regime would have been subsequently ejected from power, as the Somalis could have move northwards to occupy a major economic area of the country, which would have given ever more strength to the Eritrean secessionist rebels who were making great gains at that point and securing almost all Eritrean territory, etc.).
 
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