WI: Cass in '48?

Don't forget about former Sec. of War William Marcy! A soft Northern democrat may be just what the country needs to avoid civil war.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Don't forget about former Sec. of War William Marcy! A soft Northern democrat may be just what the country needs to avoid civil war.
Because that dipso closet-case Franklin Pierce worked out so well :rolleyes: ;)

Interestingly enough in '52, you had a not-so-closeted SecState fighting for the nomination only to lose it to a closeted New Hampshirite, and as a token of goodwill, the diplomat's lover is given the spot of VP. What a queer convention.
 
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Wolfpaw

Banned
'56 seems to be the looming election. '52 determines whether the Dems are able to hold it together or the Whigs manage a win (possible, but unlikely).

I think the key here--not to beat a dead horse--is to figure out what else Cass might do as president. Popular sovereignty in the Territories may well lead to a Bleeding California as well as guarantee Bleeding in the Great Plains. The question on filibusters is whether or not Cass will materially aid the buccaneers. Even if he doesn't, the filibusters will operate with unquestioned U.S. sanction; remember that SecState Cass made sure to punish the Marine commander who arrested William Walker in Nicaragua.

Historically, the '52 election was notable for the Whig and Democrat platforms being virtually indistinguishable, which led to the lowest voter turnout since 1836. If the Whigs embrace abolitionism (or at least an adversity to slavery) after the loss in '48, then they are dead in the South. That said, they will do better in the North and likely out West.

If the Whigs don't adopt adversity to slavery and waddle on as per OTL, possibly nominating Scott but likely nominating McLean, then they are finished. The Dems win in '52 and '56 becomes an ugly race.
 
Delaware: Taylor--6,440 / Cass--5,910. Votes needed to chage: 266
Georgia: Taylor--47,532 / Cass--44,785. Votes needed to chage: 1,374
Louisiana: Taylor--18,487 / Cass--15,379. Votes needed to chage: 1,555
Total votes needed to change: 3,195

Electoral Votes: Delaware--3, Georgia--10, Louisiana--6.
Electoral votes needed to win: 146

OTL's EV: Taylor--163 / Cass--127.
163 - 19 = 144 / 127 + 19 = 146

That is the easiest way to make Cass president and involves the smallest number of voters needed to change their mind, and less than 3,200 people isn't too bad.

It also deserves mention that most believed that the Democrats had the election in the bag, a big reason that Taylor vacillated between parties. That the Whigs nominated Taylor was actually a sign of how desperate they were to win the presidency. It really was an "Eisenhower '52" situation, but if Ike had chosen the Dems and beaten the GOP.
Did those states have 'winner take all' selection for electors? I thought that was more modern.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Did those states have 'winner take all' selection for electors? I thought that was more modern.
They don't seem to have had that rule, but glancing at previous elections shows that--apart from favoring Maryland--rogue electors tend to appear in non-two-party elections, and when they are present in two-party races, they tend to be found in either Maryland or Yankeedom.

Since '48 is a two-way race and Delaware, Georgia, and Louisiana have rather light histories of rogue electors (Louisiana seems to have been the only one to have rogue electors, and that was in '24), I don't see too much electoral chicanery arising out of a Cass win in states that also have a strong history of supporting the Democrats over the Whigs.
 
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