WI Carthage defects from WRE to ERE in late 4th century?

Following the death of Theodosius I and the rise to the throne of his sons, Arcadius and Honorius, Comes Africae Gildo saw an increase in his importance: the Africa Province, in fact, became entrusted with the grain supply to the city of Rome, a role played by Egypt until the split of the Empire into two halves. Incited by the political machinations of the eunuch Eutropius, Gildo seriously entertained the notion of joining the Eastern Roman Empire by pledging fidelity to Arcadius. The possibility of losing the granary of Rome led to civil turmoil in the city, and acting on an appeal by Stilicho, the Roman Senate declared Gildo an "enemy of the State" and started a war against him.
WI Comes Africae Gildo (who had larger and more well trained army) had indeed defected to ERE?
How is that altering History? Any thoughts?
 
It would be interesting if ERE controlled both the main grain suppliers for the Empire... (Carthage and Egypt)
WRE would be virtually in the mercy of ERE then...
What do u think?
 
It would be interesting if ERE controlled both the main grain suppliers for the Empire... (Carthage and Egypt)
WRE would be virtually in the mercy of ERE then...
What do u think?
As you say, it would be seriously bad news for Rome (or rather, Milan or Ravenna, depending on when Africa defects). I doubt Constantinople would actually cut off the western empire's grain supply, but the threat would probably be enough of a problem itself. Honorius was a bad enough emperor in OTL that this could be enough to topple his court to a rival.

If Honorius is deposed or killed, this is liable to be seen as an act of war by Arcadius in the east: they were brothers, after all. And the new western emperor is probably going to be eager to try and reconquer Africa, if not the entire empire. The most likely outcome, of course, is that the eastern forces win, and the eastern emperor either rules the combined Roman world, or appoints a weak figurehead to rule from Italy, and the western empire becomes, at best, a puppet state.

It would be interesting to speculate what sort of role Stilicho would play in all of this: does he stick with Honorius, in which case his military expertise might be enough to kept the emperor on the throne, or does he throw his support behind someone else, figuring that staying loyal to Honorius was to let himself go down with a sinking ship? Either way, it's a difficult situation to be in: if he saves Honorius, he's still got to contend with the various military and political problems facing the now-diminished Western Empire. If he defects, then he'll need to deal with the wrath of the Eastern Empire.
 
Stilicho would have joined anyone who would allow him to stick around as the power behind the throne actually... He wouldnt hesitate to betray Honorius if he became too much trouble for his ambitions...
 
Stilicho would have joined anyone who would allow him to stick around as the power behind the throne actually... He wouldnt hesitate to betray Honorius if he became too much trouble for his ambitions...
Oh, Stilicho's decision would be self-serving, I'm sure. But I'm not sure how he'd interpret the situation: would Honorius be so much of a liability that he'd throw his support behind a usurper who might not be as easily controlled and would almost certainly provoke the army of the Eastern Empire? I can see a rationale for both positions, actually.
 
If Honorius was to become a pain in the ass for Stilicho he would have found a way to get rid of him and make it look like an "accident"...
 
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