Jimmy Carter's re-election campaign was plagued by his record of fighting with Congress, the Energy Crisis was fresh in everybody's minds, lack of enthusiasm from those that supported him 4 years early, a strong primary challenge by Senator Ted Kennedy, and, of course, the bleeding sour that was the Iranian Hostage Crisis.
A lot could have happened to make the election lean towards him. The hostages could have been freed, his competitor, then Former Governor Reagan, could have said something particularly callous that matched his political beliefs (picture people looking for government subsidizes to bring business back to their community and Reagan responding with "government has no solutions for you" and see how
that would go), John Anderson could have endorsed Carter instead of running as an independent, or any other series of events that leads to more support for the sitting POTUS and given him a second term.
What if Jimmy Carter won everywhere in which he performed above the national average (besides Texas)?
That'd be:
- D.C.
- Georgia
- West Virginia
- Tennessee
- Mississippi
- South Carolina
- Rhode Island
- Kentucky
- Arkansas
- Alabama
- North Carolina
- Maryland
- Minnesota
- Louisiana
- Delaware
- Hawaii
- Missouri
- New York
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Maine
- Massachusetts
- Illinois
That would give him a whopping 280 EC vote and would require a generic +8 point swing to Carter, something doable in more favorable conditions (Anderson got 6.6% nationally). If most to all Anderson voters go to Carter, that could end up as little as a 2 point swing from Reagan to Carter, something reasonable with freed hostages and a stumbling Reagan.
Here's the thing, with all of that, Carter could, be less than a percent, end up losing the popular vote to Reagan. As I have never seen that explored, that is what I would like to discuss.
What would happen if Jimmy Carter pulled off this victory of 280 EC votes and receiving about 49% of the popular vote (same as Reagan), but losing by roughly 0.6%? How would this impact his second term and early '80s US politics?