WI: Carter wins EC but not popular vote in 1980

Jimmy Carter's re-election campaign was plagued by his record of fighting with Congress, the Energy Crisis was fresh in everybody's minds, lack of enthusiasm from those that supported him 4 years early, a strong primary challenge by Senator Ted Kennedy, and, of course, the bleeding sour that was the Iranian Hostage Crisis.

A lot could have happened to make the election lean towards him. The hostages could have been freed, his competitor, then Former Governor Reagan, could have said something particularly callous that matched his political beliefs (picture people looking for government subsidizes to bring business back to their community and Reagan responding with "government has no solutions for you" and see how that would go), John Anderson could have endorsed Carter instead of running as an independent, or any other series of events that leads to more support for the sitting POTUS and given him a second term.

What if Jimmy Carter won everywhere in which he performed above the national average (besides Texas)?

That'd be:
  1. D.C.
  2. Georgia
  3. West Virginia
  4. Tennessee
  5. Mississippi
  6. South Carolina
  7. Rhode Island
  8. Kentucky
  9. Arkansas
  10. Alabama
  11. North Carolina
  12. Maryland
  13. Minnesota
  14. Louisiana
  15. Delaware
  16. Hawaii
  17. Missouri
  18. New York
  19. Wisconsin
  20. Michigan
  21. Pennsylvania
  22. Maine
  23. Massachusetts
  24. Illinois
That would give him a whopping 280 EC vote and would require a generic +8 point swing to Carter, something doable in more favorable conditions (Anderson got 6.6% nationally). If most to all Anderson voters go to Carter, that could end up as little as a 2 point swing from Reagan to Carter, something reasonable with freed hostages and a stumbling Reagan.

Here's the thing, with all of that, Carter could, be less than a percent, end up losing the popular vote to Reagan. As I have never seen that explored, that is what I would like to discuss.

What would happen if Jimmy Carter pulled off this victory of 280 EC votes and receiving about 49% of the popular vote (same as Reagan), but losing by roughly 0.6%? How would this impact his second term and early '80s US politics?
 
With an election as close as that Reagan could easily return in 1984 to a decisive victory, though there would be questions about his age especially considering a 1985-1993 would have him leaving the presidency at age 82 and of course there are always the rumours that Reagan was showing early signs of Alzheimer’s late in his presidency OTL so another 4 years wouldn’t help that. On the bright side at least Spitting Image would be able to mock him for longer.
 
I suspect Reagan doesn't get another go in 1984. Quite apart from the age thing, moderate Republicans would argue that a 1980 loss against an extremely vulnerable Carter just proves that conservatives can't win. It's George H.W. Bush in 1984, or some such.

A Carter win likely means that the Democrats hold the Senate in 1980, but Republicans will have a decent mid-term in 1982, due to the Volcker-induced recession. Economic recovery gives Mondale a shot in 1984.
 
I suspect Reagan doesn't get another go in 1984. Quite apart from the age thing, moderate Republicans would argue that a 1980 loss against an extremely vulnerable Carter just proves that conservatives can't win. It's George H.W. Bush in 1984, or some such.

A Carter win likely means that the Democrats hold the Senate in 1980, but Republicans will have a decent mid-term in 1982, due to the Volcker-induced recession. Economic recovery gives Mondale a shot in 1984.

That plus he’s too damn old - what party in their right mind runs a 74-year-old even if he is Reagan?
 
It's George H.W. Bush in 1984, or some such.

I think Bush would run, but I highly doubt that he would be the nominee. It's more likely to be Baker, Dole, or even John Heinz. A moderate Republican and only 46, Heinz would be the most electable nationally but given his politics he would be anathema to conservatives.
 
Double digit inflation ended abruptly in 1983, as a result of changes in real estate development and petroleum marketing. It made the incumbent party difficult to defeat in 1984, barring a major faux pas. Mondale would be the Democrat easiest to defeat. GHW Bush could win as a moderate Republican. But John Glenn would have a good chance as a moderate Democrat.
 
Could Dole run in 1984???

He could, and he would probably do better than Bush Sr if he runs. But if a charismatic moderate like Heinz runs then the race would be pretty competitive, with Dole becoming the champion of party conservatives. Maybe Kemp would run too. In OTL he considered running for Governor of New York in 1982, but decided to stay in Congress. Perhaps if a Democratic President is in the White House, and therefore his influence in Congress is limited, Kemp would run against Cuomo for Governor. Given how close that race was in OTL, I'd say the result is a toss-up. In the event that Kemp beats Cuomo, then he'd be an interesting presidential candidate or VP nominee for 1984.
 
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