Napoleonrules
Banned
Don't change your argument. You said ran in primaries and came second. And don't be silly about the Dole thing. If you don't think Dole was close to sinking Bush, your analysis of that election must not have extended past the Wikipedia page. And taking in your changed argument, are you saying that Kasich, Perry, Gilmore, Santorum, or Huckabee will definitively be the Republican nominee and not the front runners? Because that's what your new model says will happen since its engraved in the Republican conscience or something. That would certainly blow the socks off of every other political analyst. And Trump never ran before unless you count have Reform Party which is not the Republican Party.
Are you kidding me, this isn't even MY model. It's a model that political science uses (my degree happens to be in as well) and has been mentioned in all the major news networks including Fox News, the most pro-Republican of them. Sorry about Trump, he was so vocal during the lead up to the 2012 race that it was hard for me to remember he actually didn't end up running; plus the polls showed that he was beating a hypothetical with President Obama. Sorry, I mispoke the first time that it was that someone ran before, not that they came in second, though I do believe all those listed that did become president are ones that did come in second, Bush was second to Reagan, Reagan was second to Ford, McCain was second to Bush Jr, Romney second to McCain... I'm sorry you're not aware of political science.