WI: Carter vs. Ford II (1980)

Don't change your argument. You said ran in primaries and came second. And don't be silly about the Dole thing. If you don't think Dole was close to sinking Bush, your analysis of that election must not have extended past the Wikipedia page. And taking in your changed argument, are you saying that Kasich, Perry, Gilmore, Santorum, or Huckabee will definitively be the Republican nominee and not the front runners? Because that's what your new model says will happen since its engraved in the Republican conscience or something. That would certainly blow the socks off of every other political analyst. And Trump never ran before unless you count have Reform Party which is not the Republican Party.

Are you kidding me, this isn't even MY model. It's a model that political science uses (my degree happens to be in as well) and has been mentioned in all the major news networks including Fox News, the most pro-Republican of them. Sorry about Trump, he was so vocal during the lead up to the 2012 race that it was hard for me to remember he actually didn't end up running; plus the polls showed that he was beating a hypothetical with President Obama. Sorry, I mispoke the first time that it was that someone ran before, not that they came in second, though I do believe all those listed that did become president are ones that did come in second, Bush was second to Reagan, Reagan was second to Ford, McCain was second to Bush Jr, Romney second to McCain... I'm sorry you're not aware of political science.
 
Are you kidding me, this isn't even MY model. It's a model that political science uses (my degree happens to be in as well) and has been mentioned in all the major news networks including Fox News, the most pro-Republican of them. Sorry about Trump, he was so vocal during the lead up to the 2012 race that it was hard for me to remember he actually didn't end up running; plus the polls showed that he was beating a hypothetical with President Obama. Sorry, I mispoke the first time that it was that someone ran before, not that they came in second, though I do believe all those listed that did become president are ones that did come in second, Bush was second to Reagan, Reagan was second to Ford, McCain was second to Bush Jr, Romney second to McCain... I'm sorry you're not aware of political science.

It must not be a very good model considering the status of the former has-runs. The party has changed a lot so I don't think it's even that good of a model anymore. 2000 were John McCain almost beat Bush if it weren't for Rove's brilliant and disgusting attacks in South Carolina showed that, 2008 were former candidate John McCain was behind Romney for much of the race shows that, and this current election most certainly shows that.
 
Different presidents starting in Obama's sophomore year in college are not going to change his ambition or his interest in politics and social justice. The 2004 Senate will still be the same.

Not necessarily. Keep in mind that Obama's 2004 Senate campaign originally had him running against Chicago businessman Jack Ryan in a fairly even race. However, Ryan found himself caught up in a sex scandal involving his recently divorced wife and withdrew. With the POD, it's entirely likely that Ryan (assuming he still runs) won't have the scandal whatsoever and he could very easily defeat Obama.

With a Ford presidency though... I wonder if Ford would talk to Gorbachev? Ford seemed pretty savvy foreign policy-wise but it's kind of a "Nixon Goes to China" moment, would Ford talking to Gorbachev be seen as weak?
 
Bush barely beat Gore'Lieberman, and actually didn't in the popular vote. McCain/Ashcroft won't do better, please explain why you think so. It can't be because "it was a Republican year" because it wasn't. No chance Hillary picks Barack Obama as a running mate unless your PoD includes slavery not existing and women getting the vote in the 1780s. Even if it wouldn't have been political suicide and they could have won, no one would think they could and no one would go for the idea of a woman and a black man on the same ticket. And Hillary and Obama both made it clear with their statements during debates who they both would have picked- Joe Biden.

The Republicans still take control of congress after the 1994 midterms and Newt Gingrich still becomes Speaker of the House. The government is shutdown in 1995 and that's when Bill Clinton meets Monica Lewinsky. So the impeachment still happens and Gore runs away from Clinton in 2000 just like in OTL.

McCain plays up the war hero angle. Says he will bring "honor and dignity back to the White House." McCain does better in the suburbs than Bush IOTL. The independents swing towards McCain, the butterfly ballot kills Gore in Palm Beach county Florida, with thousands of his votes still going to Pat Buchanan. McCain also wins New Mexico in this timeline. Plus the media loved McCain back in 2000. Both McCain and Bush got more favorable press coverage than Gore did throughout that 2000 campaign. That also helps McCain win. I don't see Gore running any better of a campaign against McCain than he did against Bush. Plus like I said, that butterfly ballot still screws Gore out of thousands of votes in Florida.

Hillary Clinton still wins the New York senate election in 2000 and Dean in 2004 (like Kerry) still needs to appeal to African-American voters. So he does a campaign stop in Chicago in the spring of 2004 and his staff meets Barack Obama and his staff. Obama still gives the keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention. Under a President McCain there is no invasion of Iraq, so there is no IWR vote in 2002 (whether 9/11 still happens is debatable). But the economy still tanks in 2008 and the Great Recession still happens. Both Clinton and Obama run in 2008, but Hillary wins the primaries with Obama playing a Gary Hart '84 runner up role. Hillary chooses Obama as her running-mate (Hillary doesn't need an experienced politician like Biden to add foreign policy credibility to her possible presidency). The McCain/Ashcroft administration are blamed for the economic crisis, they appear out of touch and have focused too much on foreign policy issues. Clinton beats Ashcroft by a comfortable margin in 2008.
 
Not necessarily. Keep in mind that Obama's 2004 Senate campaign originally had him running against Chicago businessman Jack Ryan in a fairly even race. However, Ryan found himself caught up in a sex scandal involving his recently divorced wife and withdrew. With the POD, it's entirely likely that Ryan (assuming he still runs) won't have the scandal whatsoever and he could very easily defeat Obama.

With a Ford presidency though... I wonder if Ford would talk to Gorbachev? Ford seemed pretty savvy foreign policy-wise but it's kind of a "Nixon Goes to China" moment, would Ford talking to Gorbachev be seen as weak?

I don't see how Ford winning the presidency in 1980 prevents Jack Ryan from being in a sex scandal 24 years later.

Gorbachev didn't become General Secretary of the Soviet Union until March of 1985. Ford would have left office on January 20, 1985. Ford would have (like Reagan's first term) had Brezhnev and Andropov both die on him. Like others have said in this thread, Ford (unlike Reagan) would have likely continued detente with the Soviets. But much could not have been done with Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko all being sick and dying or near death in Chernenko case throughout Ford's second term.
 
I don't see how Ford winning the presidency in 1980 prevents Jack Ryan from being in a sex scandal 24 years later.

I don't know if it would prevent Ryan's scandal. Shoot, who knows? Maybe Obama decided to remain a Harvard Law Professor instead of running for the Senate in '04. And as I said, Ryan may not even run at all due to the butterflies. Who knows?

Gorbachev didn't become General Secretary of the Soviet Union until March of 1985. Ford would have left office on January 20, 1985. Ford would have (like Reagan's first term) had Brezhnev and Andropov both die on him. Like others have said in this thread, Ford (unlike Reagan) would have likely continued detente with the Soviets. But much could not have been done with Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko all being sick and dying or near death in Chernenko case throughout Ford's second term.

Ah, my mistake. I'm not as familiar with Soviet political figures. But alright, would Kemp (once again, IF Ford were to pick him as a running mate) break from detente or is this a case of "Nixon Goes to China" where only Reagan could pull off such a thing?
 
I don't know if it would prevent Ryan's scandal. Shoot, who knows? Maybe Obama decided to remain a Harvard Law Professor instead of running for the Senate in '04. And as I said, Ryan may not even run at all due to the butterflies. Who knows?

I don't think it effects the 2004 Illinois senate race at all. Obama was/is too ambitious to remain a professor. He was still teaching at the University of Chicago while also being a state senator in the late 1990s. He was still at the University of Chicago when he ran for congress in 2000. The only thing I think effects whether or not Obama runs for senate in 2004 is like I said, Clarence Thomas' nomination to the court in 1991 and Senator Alan Dixon's vote during his confirmation vote. Obama might have run for governor in 2002 or been lieutenant governor at some point in the 2000s. There was no denying Obama is/was an ambitious person.



Ah, my mistake. I'm not as familiar with Soviet political figures. But alright, would Kemp (once again, IF Ford were to pick him as a running mate) break from detente or is this a case of "Nixon Goes to China" where only Reagan could pull off such a thing?

IMO Reagan probably more credit than necessary for the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. Gorbachev and his glasnost and perestroika policies had more to do with the fall of the Soviet empire. Add that with the stagnation of the 1970s under Brezhnev, the Soviet Union was going to crumble by the late 80s/early 90s regardless of who was President of the United States in the 1980s.

If Kemp were president in the late 80s I think he would have kept many of the Nixon/Ford/Kissinger foreign policy positions going and continued detente with the Soviets. We might even see a fall of the Soviet empire happen a year or two sooner than it did in OTL.
 
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