WI: Carter vs. Ford II (1980)

CCK

What if for health reasons Ronald Reagan decided not to run for president in 1980 and former President Gerald Ford runs for and wins the Republican nomination in 1980?

Could he have beaten President Carter or would he still have the Nixon pardon and the bad economy and high inflation America had during his presidency hanging over his head?

Would President Carter have a better chance at winning re-election against Ford than he did in OTL?

If Ford were to win, what does America and the world look like from 1981-1985 under a Gerald Ford presidency? Would it have been any different that Reagan in OTL?
 
shiftygiant

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Ford would have won. An uncooked chicken steak could have run and beat Carter in 1980, it was simply the worst year to run as incumbent President. But it wouldn't have been a landslide like in our world, as many still remember Ford, of course. Carter would have had more of a chance, but I have little doubt Ford could have won.

The question is, would the Republican Party want him to run, and could he have beaten Bush Sr.?
 
Gaius Julius Magnus

Gaius Julius Magnus

If he wins and become President, probably continued detente with the Soviets in foriegn policy at least.

I doubt Ford would have had enough coattails to take the Senate so continued Democratic control of both Houses probably.
 

Paul V McNutt

Banned
With the recession and the hostage crisis, I see a Republican year like OTL. Ford engages the Soviets more but he must go along with the tax and budget cuts.
Since ITTL Reagan's political career is over, Dole wins in 1984 and is reelected in 1988.

1981-1985 Jerry Ford
1985 -1993 Bob Dole
1993 -2001 Dick Gephardt
2001 -2009 Al Gore
2009- 2013 John McCain
2013 - Barack Obama
 

Kaiser K

Paul V McNutt said:
With the recession and the hostage crisis, I see a Republican year like OTL. Ford engages the Soviets more but he must go along with the tax and budget cuts.
Since ITTL Reagan's political career is over, Dole wins in 1984 and is reelected in 1988.

1981-1985 Jerry Ford
1985 -1993 Bob Dole
1993 -2001 Dick Gephardt
2001 -2009 Al Gore
2009- 2013 John McCain
2013 - Barack Obama
Click to expand...

*Facepalm* Obama is not going to be President if the POD is this far back enough.
 
Asami

Asami

Banned
I don't understand why Obama being in the White House is always guaranteed. With a POD in 1980, 19 year old Barack could've decided to do anything else BUT be a politician... he could be... he could be an artist? or a drug kingpin? or a musician? or a dancer? or an economic scholar? or an engineer... or something. He could've ended up working for Steve Jobs at NeXT for crying out loud.

Also: Does anybody else find an annoyance with the 22nd Amendment? I think it would've been better to reword it to where it is more like Russia where you can't serve more than two terms in a row. But yeah, since A22 won't let Ford run in 1985, I don't know -- would Bob Dole get the go-ahead? What about Bush Sr, or Connally, or Baker, or Crane? Or possibly even Haig? In 1980, Dole was at the very bottom of the nomination list; even John Anderson was higher than him (actually, he was higher than everybody but Bush and Reagan)
 

Paul V McNutt

Banned
Different presidents starting in Obama's sophomore year in college are not going to change his ambition or his interest in politics and social justice. The 2004 Senate will still be the same.
 

Kaiser K

Paul V McNutt said:
Different presidents starting in Obama's sophomore year in college are not going to change his ambition or his interest in politics and social justice. The 2004 Senate will still be the same.
Click to expand...

Really, your forgetting that there would be massive butterflies to the political atmosphere of the country as a result of a POD like this.
 

Kaiser K

David Floyd said:
Ummm, the 22nd says you can't be ELECTED to more than two terms. Ford wasn't elected the first time - he ascended via the Veep spot, to which he also wasn't elected.

Why can't he win in 1980 and run again in 1984?
Click to expand...

Because he served more then full two years of Nixon's second term; which per the 22nd Amendment counts as a full term as if he had been elected to it on his own.
 

CCK

Paul V McNutt said:
With the recession and the hostage crisis, I see a Republican year like OTL. Ford engages the Soviets more but he must go along with the tax and budget cuts.
Since ITTL Reagan's political career is over, Dole wins in 1984 and is reelected in 1988.

1981-1985 Jerry Ford
1985 -1993 Bob Dole
1993 -2001 Dick Gephardt
2001 -2009 Al Gore
2009- 2013 John McCain
2013 - Barack Obama
Click to expand...


I don't think ITTL Ford would have picked Bob Dole again as his running mate in 1980. Especially not after Dole's cold debate performance against Mondale in 1976. I think George Bush would have been the person Ford would have wanted to pick, but he would not have made the conservatives happy. Ford would have to had picked a more conservative Republican than Bush. I could see Ford picking somebody like Nevada senator Paul Laxalt to appease the conservative wing of the party.

I think even ITTL, Bill Clinton still will likely run for president in 1992 (unless a Democrat wins in 1988).
 

Paul V McNutt

Banned
Yes Bob Dole would not have been Ford's running mate in 1980. He still has to appeal to the right wing of the Republican Party. SO I think it would have been Jack Kemp.
 

CCK

Paul V McNutt said:
Yes Bob Dole would not have been Ford's running mate in 1980. He still has to appeal to the right wing of the Republican Party. SO I think it would have been Jack Kemp.
Click to expand...


Bob Dole was not the only conservative not named Ronald Reagan in the Republican party in 1980. There were many other options out there besides Bob Dole. Like I said Dole may have hurt Ford somewhat in 1976 with his icy persona and losing that V-P debate to Mondale. I can't see Ford trying to rerun his 76 campaign and picking the same guy he lost with 4 years earlier. He would have found a conservative who didn't appear so stiff and cold like Bob Dole was.
 
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