WI: Carter issues an immediate ultimatum

" The brutal seizure of our embassy and personnel, done with the full compliance of the Iranian security forces, is an act of war. However, I'm willing to offer the Iranian leader Khomenei and Prime Minister Bazargan the benefit of the doubt, that these people used the chaos of the situation on the ground to act without their consent. Therefor, they have 24 hours to either release our people to safety, with no harm done to them whatsoever, or, if they declare themselves unable to do so, they shall immediately allow US forces unrestricted access to Tehran so as to rescue our men and women from their kidnappers. If we do not receive an affirmative reply to either of these conditions within 24 hours, I will call upon Congress to issue a declaration of war against Iran."

The above speech is given by Carter in a nationally televised address prior to Khomeini's radio speech, but after the large crowds had gathered at the embassy:

As Khomeini's followers had hoped, Khomeini supported the takeover. According to Foreign Minister Yazdi, when he went to Qomto tell Khomeini about it, Khomeini told him to “go and kick them out.” But later that evening, back in Tehran, Yazdi heard on the radio that Khomeini had issued a statement supporting the seizure, calling it “the second revolution” and the embassy an “American spy den in Tehran”.[50]

What would Khomeini do ?
What would the US Congress do if the reply is 'No' ?
What would the US public think of the whole deal, and how would this shape the presidential election?
If hostilities break out, how do they go?
 

dcharleos

Donor
"
What would Khomeini do ?

80% chance he backs down and blames someone for the seizure. A war with the US isn't good for sustaining the revolution.

What would the US Congress do if the reply is 'No' ?

Declare war/authorize the use of military force

What would the US public think of the whole deal, and how would this shape the presidential election?

They'd love it. He'd win in a heartbeat.

If hostilities break out, how do they go?

A power like the US cannot truly "lose" against a power like Iran. Even Vietnam, an ostensible loss, left Vietnam in shambles. They still haven't recovered. Carter being Carter, he probably wouldn't order a huge invasion, but a more limited action. As close to precision bombing of military targets as was possible during the age, and a beefed up special forces operation to rescue the US hostages.
 
If Congress declared war, I think you would see a nasty invasion. Carter would win in 1980. The sudden slowing of inflation, based more on issues with real estate and petroleum than on political action, would give the Democrats the inside track in 1984. Mondale would be difficult to elect. Might Carter pick a moderate with a strong military record like John Glenn as VP in 1980?
 

Philip

Donor
How much public support was there for war? Vietnam was still a fresh wound. The peace movement was still quite visible in the US (if more focused on nuclear weapons).
 
How much public support was there for war? Vietnam was still a fresh wound. The peace movement was still quite visible in the US (if more focused on nuclear weapons).

After Vietnam came the oil shock and now this affront: it's often easier to project anger outwards to forget one's problems. Cf. (to some extent) Maggienomics and the Falklands war.

The only problems I actually see are:
  • Is the US, after years of demobilisation and yet incomplete transition to full-volunteer armed forces, able to project power so far away? Would it need to ally itself with Iraq?
  • Is this line of conduct really compatible with Jimmy Carter's temperament? Could he be bluffing? Remember he's the guy who was assaulted by a rabbit.
 
They irony is it might actually help Saddam's Iraqi forces do better when they attack Iran. An issue is the USAF and USN air dominance wasn't what they are today...for example, the idea of pin-point bombing will rely on iron bombs (the A-6E was great at this). USAF forces don't have airfields to fly from, so most attacks will be by USN carrier-based units. The Iranian Navy will be sunk and completely destroyed and the Iranian Air Fields will be demolished.

The loss of the Iranian Navy and Air Force will really help the Iraqi ground forces.
 
Good point. The net empowerment of Saddam Hussein won't change the field for Carter, but an invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War could come sooner. On the other hand, with Iran in his control (or partial control), maybe he doesn't mess with Kuwait.
 
If Saddam's war on Iran works, then he doesn't take loans out, which means there is only one reason to attack Kuwait (horizontal drilling from Kuwait into the Iraqi oil fields).
 
Saddam could occupy Khuzestan and cripple Iran's oil revenue.

However, I'm still mulling over what could be happening inside Peanut's skull: he convinced the Shah's loyalists not to react and by then they were languishing in some dungeon (or in a common grave): could that be the factor that pushes him over the edge? Fool me once, etcetera.
 
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