WI: Carter assassinated by a South Korean in 1980 due to Gwangju

In 1980, the South Korean military brutally suppressed the Gwangju democratic movement with a massacre. The United States did not support the movement, instead seeing it as a rebellion against the government. On May 27, the Department of State even issued a statement claiming that the US government could no longer stand the disorder and chaos in South Korea. Many would interpret it as a signal that Carter was indirectly responsible for the deaths of thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Gwangju, even though the United States never took part in the actual suppression of protesters. When Carter obtained the Nobel Peace Price in 2002, there were also opposition based on his indirect responsibility in Gwangju, in which he never apologized.

Carter would later be shocked by the brutality of General Chun, but he was simply too occupied with Iran at the time, and may have feared the consequences of a revolution in South Korea. However, despite no direct involvement of the US in killing civilians, Carter's support towards Chun was to many, the beginning of strong anti-US sentiment among Koreans living in Liberal Southwest (Jeolla and Gwangju). Throughout the 1980s, there were attacks on American properties taking place at the same time anti-Chun protests broke out.

What if more information about Gwangju came out at the time, and a random Korean-in-exile living in the United States decided that Carter was responsible for Gwangju, and assassinated him in say June 1980? What would be the consequences:

1. Who would the Democrats nominate to replace Carter? Ted Kennedy? Or the establishment would go for Mondale instead, due to the bitter primary campaign?
2. What would be the immediate reaction of US citizens, learning that a South Korean killed Carter for thinking that Carter was behind Gwangju (when he obviously was not)?
3. Would Carter's replacement have a better chance in winning over Reagan, or alternatively - the assassination did not produce much sympathies for months, but instead shows the hypocrite nature of the US' claims of advocating human rights, and led Reagan to an even bigger landslide?
4. Then-prominent pro-democracy activist Kim Dae-jung would be sentenced to death in OTL after Gwangju, but the Reagan administration intervened to save his life. If Carter was killed by a South Korean, would the United States not save Kim but let him "disappear from the world" instead?
5. Would such an incident delay the democratization of South Korea?
 
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Kennedy drops out and President Mondale becomes the Democratic nominee. He loses to Reagan in November (though does slightly better then OTL Carter-Mondale due to the "sympathy vote").
 
. . . Carter's support towards Chun was to many, the beginning of strong anti-US sentiment among Koreans living in Liberal Southwest (Jello and Gwangju) . . . [Emphasis added]

I'm assuming that's a typo (Jeolla), but it's a pretty glaring one.

What if more information about Gwangju came out at the time, and a random Korean-in-exile living in the United States decided that Carter was responsible for Gwangju, and assassinated him in say June 1980?

I have no idea why or how this would happen. Not only did the majority of Korean Americans at this time not have American citizenship, making it extremely risky in order to attempt to take the life of a foreign president, but there would be various riots, or incidents, targeting Koreans, or East Asians in general, in retaliation. As a result, it would take an extremely maniacal or deranged person to attempt to carry out the act, not to mention that the person would most likely be apprehended before the incident occurred.

5. Would such an incident delay the democratization of South Korea?

Probably not, as Chun Doo-hwan would have eventually picked a successor, which would have ultimately triggered another widespread demonstration like the one in 1987. Even if democracy was delayed for a while, the transition would still ultimately begin in the 1990s, as the government was gradually beginning to lose its iron grip over the populace as a whole, and protests would continue to flare up at the slightest sign of a crack within the administration.
 
I think the effects of a murdered martyred President, especially if the killing happens shortly before the election have been under estimated

Mondale would beat Reagan
 
I think the effects of a murdered martyred President, especially if the killing happens shortly before the election have been under estimated

Mondale would beat Reagan
Indeed. No matter how bad the President were, his assassination would result in a SHITLOAD of sympathy votes for his veep.

I would say a close election, due to Reagan's charisma.
 
Indeed. No matter how bad the President were, his assassination would result in a SHITLOAD of sympathy votes for his veep.

I would say a close election, due to Reagan's charisma.

Indeed. Mondale would also be able to run in '84 and would likely win given economic trends. Inflation was dropping because of Paul Volcker and supply-side economics would lose its most prominent spokesman.

'82 would see GOP pick up some House seats and one or two in the Senate but unless Mondale did something incredibly stupid the Democrats will keep control of the White House and Congrees.

Would we still get SCOTUSAJ Sandra Day O'Connor or someone else?

Who runs for the GOP in '84?
 
With the hostage crisis and the bad economy, Reagan still beats Mondale. in the unlikely event of a Mondale victory:
1980 - 1989 Walter Mondale
1989 - 1993 Hugh Carey
1993 - 2001 Jack Kemp
2001. - 2009 John McCain
2009 - bBarack Obama
 
With the hostage crisis and the bad economy, Reagan still beats Mondale. in the unlikely event of a Mondale victory:
1980 - 1989 Walter Mondale
1989 - 1993 Hugh Carey
1993 - 2001 Jack Kemp
2001. - 2009 John McCain
2009 - bBarack Obama

This is way too convergent for my tastes.

Who would Mondale pick as VP? I'd think he'd want a Southern Democrat to respect the 'Carter coalition', whatever that is.
 

Thande

Donor
This is certainly an interesting idea and if the sympathy vote is powerful enough, a plausible way to get President Mondale.

This is way too convergent for my tastes.
Yeah. I don't want to bash people but why on earth does Obama show up on so many presidential lists with early PODs? McCain makes sense as he's part of a military dynasty and those often overlap with politics, but Obama? The guy who owes his political career to a casting decision on season 4 of Star Trek: Voyager in 1997? That's like the very definition of for want of a nail.
 
Indeed. Mondale would also be able to run in '84 and would likely win given economic trends. Inflation was dropping because of Paul Volcker and supply-side economics would lose its most prominent spokesman.

'82 would see GOP pick up some House seats and one or two in the Senate but unless Mondale did something incredibly stupid the Democrats will keep control of the White House and Congrees.

Would we still get SCOTUSAJ Sandra Day O'Connor or someone else?

Who runs for the GOP in '84?

Regarding Sandra Day O'Connor & the Supreme Court - butterflies could flutter past her or could alight upon her and carry her nomination away.

Regarding the '84 presidential race - Unless his health or job performance is worse than in OTL, Reagan will most probably seek a 2nd term and receive the Republican nomination. Among the front runners for the Democratic nomination would be Walter Mondale, Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson. If Mondale doesn't run, then folks like Biden, Hart & Bumpers might be in the race as well.
 
Regarding Sandra Day O'Connor & the Supreme Court - butterflies could flutter past her or could alight upon her and carry her nomination away.

Regarding the '84 presidential race - Unless his health or job performance is worse than in OTL, Reagan will most probably seek a 2nd term and receive the Republican nomination. Among the front runners for the Democratic nomination would be Walter Mondale, Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson. If Mondale doesn't run, then folks like Biden, Hart & Bumpers might be in the race as well.

I'm sorry but with an assassinated President, I have a hard time seeing how Mondale looses in '80.
 
Who would Mondale pick as VP? I'd think he'd want a Southern Democrat to respect the 'Carter coalition', whatever that is.

If Mondale becomes President in late May 1980, he'd have to consult with Ted Kennedy immediately to settle the nomination "in the name of party unity and for the healing of the nation." I imagine that Mondale would ask Kennedy to suggest some names of people to become the new VPOTUS, as this person would also be, presumably, the vice-presidential nominee of the Democratic Party. While Mondale would run the list by party leaders on Capitol Hill (both Democrat & Republican), and solicit their suggestions, Kennedy's list would be given the greatest weight. As the convention (at New York City's Madison Square Garden) is still 2 months away (August 11 to August 14) there's just enough time for Congress to consider and approve the nomination (and no, the Republicans won't oppose the nominee as this is the pre-Bork era) beforehand.

The Southerners who I'd suggest are: Ernest Hollings (SC), Lloyd Bentsen (TX), Dale Bumpers (AR) or Walter Huddleston (KY). I have no idea who Kennedy would propose.
 
I'm sorry but with an assassinated President, I have a hard time seeing how Mondale looses in '80.

Given the margin of Reagan's OTL victory, the sympathy and well wishes of the nation levels the field in my estimation and makes the race as close as the '76 Ford-Carter race and could go either way.
 
The Southerners who I'd suggest are: Ernest Hollings (SC), Lloyd Bentsen (TX), Dale Bumpers (AR) or Walter Huddleston (KY). I have no idea who Kennedy would propose.

I think Hollings would be a strong pick but Kennedy's opinion I'm not sure of either, agree with the analysis.

Given the margin of Reagan's OTL victory, the sympathy and well wishes of the nation levels the field in my estimation and makes the race as close as the '76 Ford-Carter race and could go either way.

Fair enough, but Mondale in '80 is more interesting than just going with OTL result.
 
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