WI: Carlos II Lives Another Few Years

Specifically until late April 1711. Yes, I know the guy was the one who all of Europe expected to die soon and baffled them by surviving (so 10yrs more would probably be a stretch). Assuming an OTL pattern to things that means that the French Bourbons are months away from their winnowing (Le Grand Dauphin and Emperor Josef I died on April 14 and 17 1711, le Petit Dauphin and Dauphine and their eldest son in February 1712 (which still occur as OTL)).

This means that deaths which caused problems in the Spanish Succession War occur near the beginning rather than the end of the war, if a war there still is. As to Josef I and Le Petit Dauphin (assume their kids are as OTL),since both married BEFORE the POD (namely Carlos living past November 1700). But would a matter of ten years change much? Would a Habsburg Spain be more likely than a Bourbon one in this case. Both powers would have marks against them: Anjou because he's next in line should the young Louis (XV) die, and Karl because he's the logical successor to Josef I as emperor. Or does Carlos II nominate Berri instead of Anjou as his French candidate?
 
Specifically until late April 1711. Yes, I know the guy was the one who all of Europe expected to die soon and baffled them by surviving (so 10yrs more would probably be a stretch). Assuming an OTL pattern to things that means that the French Bourbons are months away from their winnowing (Le Grand Dauphin and Emperor Josef I died on April 14 and 17 1711, le Petit Dauphin and Dauphine and their eldest son in February 1712 (which still occur as OTL)).

This means that deaths which caused problems in the Spanish Succession War occur near the beginning rather than the end of the war, if a war there still is. As to Josef I and Le Petit Dauphin (assume their kids are as OTL),since both married BEFORE the POD (namely Carlos living past November 1700). But would a matter of ten years change much? Would a Habsburg Spain be more likely than a Bourbon one in this case. Both powers would have marks against them: Anjou because he's next in line should the young Louis (XV) die, and Karl because he's the logical successor to Josef I as emperor. Or does Carlos II nominate Berri instead of Anjou as his French candidate?

In his will, Carlos did name Berry as heir should Anjou die or inherit France, so he might choose him ; but in april 1711 Burgundy has two sons and is still of age for more, so skipping Anjou altogether may be too cautious. A OTL-like disposition should do the trick : #1 Anjou, #2 a potential second son of Anjou, #3 Berry. Of course, there are lot of butterflies in the period 1701-1711, the most obvious being a successful partition treaty (Louis XIV's favorite option) and a "peace match" (Philippe of Anjou and Mary Ana of Habsburg, for example).
 
Of course, there are lot of butterflies in the period 1701-1711, the most obvious being a successful partition treaty (Louis XIV's favorite option) and a "peace match" (Philippe of Anjou and Mary Ana of Habsburg, for example).

I was under the impression that that match (either Maria Anna or Maria Magdalene) failed from Vienna's side. Not through wont of trying from Versailles. And when la Savoyana died and Louis XIV again tried for a match, even though the war was over, the Habsburgs still were having none of it. Or the princesse des Ursins didn't want an archduchess she couldn't control.

However, on the subject of a peace match, what about Carlos II naming one of Josef I's daughters on condition she marries a son of Anjou. It's a bit of a stretch agewise (Maria Josefa being born in 1699, while Luis of Borbon was born in 1707)?
 
I was under the impression that that match (either Maria Anna or Maria Magdalene) failed from Vienna's side. Not through wont of trying from Versailles. And when la Savoyana died and Louis XIV again tried for a match, even though the war was over, the Habsburgs still were having none of it. Or the princesse des Ursins didn't want an archduchess she couldn't control.

However, on the subject of a peace match, what about Carlos II naming one of Josef I's daughters on condition she marries a son of Anjou. It's a bit of a stretch agewise (Maria Josefa being born in 1699, while Luis of Borbon was born in 1707)?

Sure thing, any Bourbon-Habsburg match would be a consequence of a successful partition treaty, meaning an effective peaceful settlement of the Spanish succession. Not sure of the loss for Felipe, Elisabeth Farnese being an...interesting character. A Francesco d'Este-Elisabeth Farnese would make for a potentially powerful purely Italian player, which is interesting, but I doubt any Great Power would allow such a match.
 
Sure thing, any Bourbon-Habsburg match would be a consequence of a successful partition treaty, meaning an effective peaceful settlement of the Spanish succession. Not sure of the loss for Felipe, Elisabeth Farnese being an...interesting character. A Francesco d'Este-Elisabeth Farnese would make for a potentially powerful purely Italian player, which is interesting, but I doubt any Great Power would allow such a match.

I just had this crazy thought of Cosimo III de Medici having his brother defrocked to marry Isabel. Probably unlikely (although Francesco married in 1709, when Isabel was 17), the only other option for her is the prince of Piedmont.

But would a Bourbon-Habsburg match result in a sort of Diplomatic Revolution (like it did 50years later), or would it just follow the types of Louis XIII/XIV? And remember, when Carlos dies, the emperor is not 60yo Leopold I but the 25yo Karl VI who's been sort of been prepped mentally for the last couple years that he's gonna be king of Spain. Is he necessarily just going to say, "oh well, my sister's married to King Felipe, so I'll just not want the Spanish crown"? No offense, considering Karl's OTL stunts to get the pragmatic sanction accepted, he seems rather mulish and tends to view every problem as a nail.
 
I just had this crazy thought of Cosimo III de Medici having his brother defrocked to marry Isabel. Probably unlikely (although Francesco married in 1709, when Isabel was 17), the only other option for her is the prince of Piedmont.

But would a Bourbon-Habsburg match result in a sort of Diplomatic Revolution (like it did 50years later), or would it just follow the types of Louis XIII/XIV? And remember, when Carlos dies, the emperor is not 60yo Leopold I but the 25yo Karl VI who's been sort of been prepped mentally for the last couple years that he's gonna be king of Spain. Is he necessarily just going to say, "oh well, my sister's married to King Felipe, so I'll just not want the Spanish crown"? No offense, considering Karl's OTL stunts to get the pragmatic sanction accepted, he seems rather mulish and tends to view every problem as a nail.
Karl doesn’t get to have both crowns. No one is going accept that.
Josef being dead, there is no candidate from Austria for the Spanish crown.
How do you get a partition, though? The idea was just as much about making the Spanish empire smaller as it was about satisfying both candidates. In the otl treaties, neither the French nor the Austrian crowns directly got a piece. So here, without any Habsburgs available to rule outside Austria, does the crown get a piece as otl (after many years of war), or is Karl blocked from the beginning?
Savoy was also in line. Their candidate might get a slice of the pie in place of Karl.
 
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