WI: Carl Peter Ulrich is Already Heir to Sweden When Elizabeth Petrovna Becomes Empress?

[Kellan Sullivan]

OTL, Karl Peter Ulrich of Holstein was chosen as heir to the Russian throne in autumn 1742. The delegation wanting to have him become heir to Sweden arrived a few weeks later (October 1742). As he was already heir to Russia, this was scrapped.

So. What if it had been reversed. Say in 1739/1740 (shortly after his dad dies) the Swedes choose him as being heir to the throne. Elizabeth Petrovna's coup still takes place in December 1741. No way either Russia or Sweden would tolerate a personal union. So, who does Elizabeth name as her heir? Or does she bite the bullet and marry (I doubt she'd give up Alexei Razumovsky, but I don't see her marrying Aloysha without massively undermining her rule).
@alexmilman @Valena

 

[Emperor Constantine]

In such a scenario Elisabeth would have three options: 1. she sucks it up and makes a dynastic marriage to continue the Romanov line; 2. She has to name the deposed Ivan VI or one of his (unborn) brothers as her heir; or 3. She names leave the heirship vacant and later names a second child of her nephew as heir.

 

[alexmilman]

In such a scenario Elisabeth would have three options: 1. she sucks it up and makes a dynastic marriage to continue the Romanov line; 2. She has to name the deposed Ivan VI or one of his (unborn) brothers as her heir; or 3. She names leave the heirship vacant and later names a second child of her nephew as heir.

There is a 4th option. In 1743, when Russia is winning a war of 1741 - 43 (Finland is occupied and Lacy is ready to invade Sweden proper), one of the peace conditions (Peace of Abo) is, as in OTL, to make Adolph Frederic a heir to the Swedish throne with a resulting “reassignment” of Peter Ulrich as a heir to the Russian throne. Under the circumstances the Swedes are not in a good position to object, especially if in 1742 the Russians are still playing the card of Kingdom of Finland (with Adolph Frederic as a candidate).

The end-product is the OTL schema.

Option #1 is still possible if by that time she is already not secretly married to Razumovsky. She is still in the early 30s and can have a heir of her own. This option opens questions about a potential candidate and his status within the Russian society. The only precedent is Anna Leopoldovna and her husband but her regency was too short to produce a clear understanding of the potential power (or its absense) of the Prince consort. Anton Ulrich seemingly had none but would this work with a different person in a long run?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

There is a 4th option. In 1743, when Russia is winning a war of 1741 - 43 (Finland is occupied and Lacy is ready to invade Sweden proper), one of the peace conditions (Peace of Abo) is, as in OTL, to make Adolph Frederic a heir to the Swedish throne with a resulting “reassignment” of Peter Ulrich as a heir to the Russian throne. Under the circumstances the Swedes are not in a good position to object, especially if in 1742 the Russians are still playing the card of Kingdom of Finland (with Adolph Frederic as a candidate).

The end-product is the OTL schema.

Option #1 is still possible if by that time she is already not secretly married to Razumovsky. She is still in the early 30s and can have a heir of her own. This option opens questions about a potential candidate and his status within the Russian society. The only precedent is Anna Leopoldovna and her husband but her regency was too short to produce a clear understanding of the potential power (or its absense) of the Prince consort. Anton Ulrich seemingly had none but would this work with a different person in a long run?

I remember reading that she was engaged to a prince of Homburg, and said prince only married to Anastasia Trubetskaya in 1738. So, if he holds off the marriage until 1741 (or perhaps Anastasia dies), would said Hessian be considered? I know Elizabeth was trying to play the anti-German, pro-French card, but would France TRY to back Homburg?

 

[alexmilman]

I remember reading that she was engaged to a prince of Homburg, and said prince only married to Anastasia Trubetskaya in 1738. So, if he holds off the marriage until 1741 (or perhaps Anastasia dies), would said Hessian be considered? I know Elizabeth was trying to play the anti-German, pro-French card, but would France TRY to back Homburg?

She was playing the French card as cesarevna: the French were providing her with money and presumably helped to organize the coup in expectation that as an empress she would return to Sweden the territories lost in the GNW. Needless to say that as soon as she became an empress her plans on the subject drastically changed. She still remained close to France for a while but than allied with Austria (the French ambassador made the same mistake as later Frederick: wrote something critical about her personality in a coded letter which was 8ntercepted and decoded; in the important areas Russia already was quite advanced . ).

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

On an unrelated note: Just finished the last episode of season 1 of Ekaterina, and its referred to in several episodes before that Elizabeth "intends" to name Alexei Razumovski as her heir. With the then infant Pavel Petrovich to follow him. I have no idea if this was simply made up for the purposes of the show - although IIRC OTL Alexei was discovered burning documents and when questioned about it, responded "can anyone say that I have NOT been a faithful subject/servant to her/his Majesty?" The interpretation I've read of it was that it was the marriage papers, but a will would also make sense if he knew there would be an outcry over it. Although I have NO idea when said incedent occurred.

Since in the Russia of the day, the succession fell to whoever the emperor named as heir, I could honestly see Elizabeth doing something like this. But of course, the question would arise of whether such a "nobody from the Ukraine" (as the patriarch calls him) would/could've had any support even if such a will HAD existed.