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It's not often paid attention, but in August 1920, ex-president (and future supreme court chief justice) William Howard Taft came close to a gruesome death. Carl Panzram, a serial killer and rapist with a talent for grudge-holding, invaded Taft's home to gain revenge for his first prison sentence at the age of 15, which Taft had personally approved while Secretary of War. IOTL, Taft was away from home and Panzram just looted Taft's house and stole his M1911A. He used the money and the gun to go on a decade-long crime spree that, according to Panzram's own account, ended with 21 bodies to his name and over 1,000 men forcibly sodomized.

Now, many doubt the extent of Panzram's rampage, but no one can doubt that Taft was unbelievably lucky to not be home. Panzram was 6 feet tall and 190 lbs of ferocious muscle, with a bone-deep hatred for all humanity. Without some serious guards or a steady shot from that pistol, I've no doubt that Panzram could and would have torn Taft limb from limb.

Suppose, then, that Taft is not lucky? Suppose that he's home, and he and his wife Nellie (and, knowing Panzram, any servants or relatives unlucky enough to be in the house) are killed. What are the immediate effects and butteflies? Two scenarios present distinct possibilities in my mind.

Scenario 1: Panzram finds the house full of family and staff, and murders his way through the Taft household to the ex-president himself, but is eventually restrained and captured by neighbors and New Haven police. The shock would be profound, but perhaps more understandable. Presidents way more often back then, but it might encourage congress to afford ex-presidents some real protection.

Scenario 2: Panzram finds the Tafts mostly alone, kills them, and escapes with the loot he did OTL, allowing him to make a clean getaway on the yacht Akista, eventually ending up in Angola like OTL. The murders are a blood-soaked mystery, and might cause a genuine panic. Perhaps it ends up being blamed on communists, inflaming the burgeoning Red Scare?

Broader Butterflies: The elections are coming, and IOTL Taft had a lot of work ahead of him. He was a grandee of the Republican party, and would in short order be Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. How likely is this to affect the court's leanings in the years to come?

Further down the line, how might this affect his son Robert Taft, who was to become a power in US politics in his own right? Could the shock turn the great conservative into an outright reactionary, or could it move him away from politics entirely?

I'm interested to hear what people think.
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