Perhaps we should wait a couple years to get a better sense of how he'd conduct a Pontificate...
Hmm yeah but we are here to speculate so why not idulge ourselves so we can look stupid two or three months from now?
If Ratzinger makes it clear he won't accept after the 3rd ballot Bergoglio could emerge ultimately but it would not happen on the 4th ballot or very probably not on the 5th. So let's say he consolidates on the 6th.
Ratzinger really wasn't as conservative as he was made out to be. He was a leading fugure in New Theology after all. If Bergoglio prevails the misperception will be that he is more liberal than he really is, esp. on the pelvic issues. He is not going to be the much sought after Pope Condom I.
JP II was a political pope and a theological pope but deficient as an administrator. Benedict was even more a theologian by nature but proved to be not much better as an administrator. Bergoglio would be lighter on the theology and more involved in the administration,
Reiterating what I said in another thread Bergoglio as Pope would not try to put the talks with the SSPX on the fast track the way Ratzinger did. He would be close to indifferent to the Tridentine Rite, neither trying to snuff it out nor expand its use.