WI: Canadian federal election January 15, 2004

The Liberals were expected to win a majority in a fresh election called by Paul Martin, but the sponsorship scandal killed those hopes.
What if Martin goes to the polls before then? Calling a snap election three days after becoming PM?
 
He’d win a majority. The sponsorship scandal would still hurt him a bit I imagine, and his enormous lead would likely be reduced, but he’d still win a landslide if only because the right-wing would be a mess. Either the PCs and Alliance still aren’t merged, or they don’t have an actual leader until halfway through the campaign.
 
He’d win a majority. The sponsorship scandal would still hurt him a bit I imagine, and his enormous lead would likely be reduced, but he’d still win a landslide if only because the right-wing would be a mess. Either the PCs and Alliance still aren’t merged, or they don’t have an actual leader until halfway through the campaign.
Do you think he would use all five years in his mandate? How long would he be PM?
 
Do you think he would use all five years in his mandate? How long would he be PM?
That’s tough. He’s still going to have the Sponsorship Scandal to deal with (even if it’s in the rear view mirror by 2007/8), and 14 years in government means Canadians will likely be tired of the Liberals. I could see him being re-elected, but probably with only a minority, after which he probably opts to retire.
 
That’s tough. He’s still going to have the Sponsorship Scandal to deal with (even if it’s in the rear view mirror by 2007/8), and 14 years in government means Canadians will likely be tired of the Liberals. I could see him being re-elected, but probably with only a minority, after which he probably opts to retire.
2009 election would revolve around Martin talking about his economic management skills?
And then the Grits would try to hold off going to the polls as long as possible, before being brought down in 2011/2012?
 
2009 election would revolve around Martin talking about his economic management skills?
And then the Grits would try to hold off going to the polls as long as possible, before being brought down in 2011/2012?
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. That said, depending on when he retired, I could also see Martin's predecessor calling an election right after the 2010 Winter Olympics.
 
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. That said, depending on when he retired, I could also see Martin's predecessor calling an election right after the 2010 Winter Olympics.
Is it possible that the Grits would pull another hat trick and win an election at that time?
 
By this point in time, it was unknown who among the two recently united right wing parties would even run, let alone win. The money had to be on Harper because his Alliance base was relatively united around him, but with an early election call, it might end up somewhere unknown.

The issue of course might be that the population sees Martin's call as being "unsporting" and "unfair", calling before the other side is ready, and offend Canadian sense of fair play. But probably not. The issue for Martin was always that his earnest denials and attempts to pin Sponsorship entirely on Chretien and his posse came off as flawed because he was Finance Minister at the time. But an early election call might have some of the Chretienites with a nastier odor of corruption on them not yet be totally purged, and it would harm the Liberals.

Quite frankly, though, the right in Canada was only rejuvenated by the scandal, particularly in Ontario. An election campaign where Harper or whoever cannot hit them on a daily basis with the scandal is one in which it is easier to slur the Tories as being "extreme" and having a secret agenda. Those attacks worked to a point, but they were hampered by the fact that Harper was speaking sense on the scandal that resonated with voters. Without the scandal, I think another Ontario landslide is possible and a majority government returned.
 
Is it possible that the Grits would pull another hat trick and win an election at that time?
They could definitely win a minority, but after 17 years another majority is likely out of reach.

Here's a scenario:

Prime Ministers of Canada:
2003-2010: Paul Martin (Liberal)
-04:
Stephen Harper (Conservative), Gilles Duceppe (Bloc Québécois), Jack Layton (New Democratic)
-09 (min): Jim Flaherty (Conservative), Jack Layton (New Democratic), Gilles Duceppe (Bloc Québécois)

2010-2012: Gerard Kennedy (Liberal)
-10 (min):
Jim Flaherty (Conservative), Gilles Duceppe (Bloc Québécois), Jack Layton (New Democratic)
2012-????: Danny Williams (Conservative)

-12 (min): Gerard Kennedy (Liberal), Gilles Duceppe (Bloc Québécois), Pat Martin (New Democratic)

The 2010 election could go either way, really. Some rationale: Harper's probably out after 2004. It's not like the Martin landslide was his fault, but he'll still be partially blamed and the fact that he'd likely have become Conservative leader without a real election won't do him any favours. As for who succeeds Martin, it's tough. With a 2004 landslide, Dion probably won't return to cabinet and Ignatieff wouldn't have been recruited. Rae would probably still run but I don't think the party would've warmed up enough to him yet. Frank McKenna probably won't run either, since he never showed an ambition for returning to politics, and people like John Manley, Brian Tobin, and Allan Rock probably won't do that well (or run at all) after 7 years in the wilderness. I figure Kennedy works though since he'd still probably make a bid, and he'd likely be seen as a breath of fresh air that the party needs to stay in government. As for Williams, he'd almost certainly become a Conservative hero because he'd definitely spend most of his time vocally feuding with Martin, making a subsequent jump to the leadership not unlikely.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Sponsorship Scandal really got going until Fraser issued her report and Martin subsequently called the Gomery Commission… in February. If the election is in January, Martin and the Liberals avoid the worst of it; sure, he'd likely face some criticism over pre-empting the report, but without a numerical value to put to corruption, it's all just abstract, about the principle of the matter rather than anything concrete.

The Conservatives are interesting in this scenario. True, they didn't pick their leader until March IOTL; but ITTL, if it seems like Martin is gearing up for an election for January, I expect they would handle leadership differently. Perhaps, with only a few months between their merger and a federal election, they have a provision where Harper directly ascends to the Tory leadership, with a review/convention scheduled after his first election. That certainly doesn't feel right to me, but at the same time… if you simply don't have the time for an election… maybe that's the least bad option.

Either way, I foresee the fabled Martinslide everyone dreamed of (or feared)— in 2004 and beyond. An election around the Great Recession (2008-2010), I think, would be massively in the Liberals' favour; Martin can point to his work as finance minister as not only lifting Canada out of recession before, but also for being directly responsible for the reason Canada was relatively spared the effects of the Great Recession. With that in mind, I can't see them not being returned in another landslide, and I think that has some massive knock-on effects; because it means the Liberals would have the branding of being fiscally prudent and responsible, and that's a massive blow to a Conservative Party that, ITTL, is struggling to define itself or its message. And if Liberals thread that brand of fiscally conservative/socially progressive… well, that's a hell of a place to be.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Sponsorship Scandal really got going until Fraser issued her report and Martin subsequently called the Gomery Commission… in February. If the election is in January, Martin and the Liberals avoid the worst of it; sure, he'd likely face some criticism over pre-empting the report, but without a numerical value to put to corruption, it's all just abstract, about the principle of the matter rather than anything concrete.
You're right that it didn't get big until later, but there were rumblings even before Martin took over (for instance, Chretien offered to delay his resignation until February and take the personal political bullet for the scandal so that Martin wouldn't have to deal with it, though the latter declined).
 
You're right that it didn't get big until later, but there were rumblings even before Martin took over
For sure; Fraser had started her investigation a couple years earlier, after all. I just think that prior to her report, the scandal will be of minor effect, almost an insider-baseball kind of thing.
 
If you have it so Stephen Harper opts not to return to elected politics, and instead remain involved with the National Citizen's Coalition, or even go into provincial politics, you could get an even more right-wing candidate that could alienate moderates. When confronted with a right-wing opponent who you could connect with Mike Harris or even portray as a Republican, voters might choose not to really care about the sponsorship scandal.

For example, without Harper you could see someone like Frank Klees become Alliance leader.

Prime Ministers of Canada
Jean Chretien (Liberal) 1993-2003

2000 (Maj.): Frank Klees (Canadian Alliance), Gilles Duceppe (Bloc Quebecois), Alexa McDonough (New Democratic), Joe Clark (Prog. Conservative)
Paul Martin (Liberal) 2003-
2004 (Maj.): Frank Klees (Conservative), Gilles Duceppe (Bloc Quebecois), Jack Layton (New Democratic)
 
Last edited:
He’d win a majority. The sponsorship scandal would still hurt him a bit I imagine, and his enormous lead would likely be reduced, but he’d still win a landslide if only because the right-wing would be a mess. Either the PCs and Alliance still aren’t merged, or they don’t have an actual leader until halfway through the campaign.
AFAIK the Scandal came to light after January 15th.

And to OP, although it's not quite what you are looking for, there was this great article where Martin is made leader a few months earlier and calls an election for 2003.
 
Top