What if Chretien had lost even more seats in the 2000 election, enough so that the Alliance and PCs with Bloc supply and confidence could form the next government. How long would this last? Would the merger between the two parties occur sooner?
Is there a third referendum from BQ???
Depends how long it lasts, but assuming it's similar to the Bloc's 2008 deal with the Liberals/NDP - i.e. coalition agreement for 3 years, with the Bloc guaranteeing to support it for 2 - it likely falls apart in a blaze of poor decisions. Day's not going to avoid the questions over his leadership, and the Liberals are going to really hammer him hard for supposedly stealing government from the popular Chrétien. Worse, though, is that Day is going to support the Iraq War. If this doesn't immediately topple the government (since agreement or no agreement, the Bloc is really going to be against this, as with the Liberals and NDP), it'll be enough to cause his defeat when he heads to the polls.
As for who replaces him, who knows. By 2000 Paul Martin is definitely favoured in a Liberal leadership election (particularly if Chrétien is personally blamed for their loss), but he's not yet nearly reached the level of control he had before running IOTL, so though he'd be favoured he's not unstoppable. Manley and Copps would probably both run, as they did IOTL, but I doubt either has what it takes to defeat him. Tobin might, but I think the best anti-Martin candidate would probably be Allan Rock - in OTL, certainly, polls had him as the only serious threat to Martin before he opted not to run. So either Martin or Rock win a majority in (probably) 2003, likely benefiting from a Bloc collapse, and are probably re-elected in 2007.
Hard to say if the Alliance and PCs merge, but it depends on how the coalition goes. Personally, my gut tells me that the PCs will stay on their own - I suspect their going to feel overwhelmed and outvoted while in government, and aren't going to come away from it feeling particularly good about a merger.
I suspect so, yeah.So both the Alliance and PCs would remain seperate parties throughout at least 2007?
What, as a condition for their support? Absolutely no chance. It was controversial enough just when the proposed 2008 coalition rested on separatist support; if Day were to submit to the separatists to such an extent that he organized a referendum that could split Canada, just for his own political gain… that would spell the death of his credibility, his government and probably his party.Is there a third referendum from BQ???
Of course. In OTL, after 1995, the idea pretty much ran out of steam. This alternate election would be after that POD.What, as a condition for their support? Absolutely no chance. It was controversial enough just when the proposed 2008 coalition rested on separatist support; if Day were to submit to the separatists to such an extent that he organized a referendum that could split Canada, just for his own political gain… that would spell the death of his credibility, his government and probably his party.
It might pop up again one day in TTL(2000 seems a bit soon, it'd be like Scotland proposing it again had Brexit not happened).Not sure what you're trying to say. It's easy to think of sovereignty as dead and buried now, and even to look back and see the signs of impending doom, but it sure didn't look like that during the 2000s. For the federal government to propose another referendum… a mere five years after the last… which was an extremely close call… on the demand of the BQ… is an act of political suicide.