WI Cameron does not promise a referendum on the EU in 2015?

I apologize if this is too current, but what would have happened differently if the Tories had not promised a referendum on EU membership during the 2015 general election?
 
Conservatives don't get a majority, but instead get around 320 seats. Ed Balls keeps his seat. Reduced Conservative enthusiasm and UKIP support increases. Cameron forms another coalition with the LibDems. Ironically this turns out far better for him, he gets to be more moderate and still advance his agenda. Not sure if surviving Balls could have become Labour leader.

CON 323
LAB 240
LIB 8
UKIP 1

Got this with Electoral Calculus. Things go much better for David Cameron, who leaves in 2019 after a successful term, having led Britain through the recession and shifted it back to the right, and is a successful moderniser conservative. Osborne becomes Prime Minister and beats Corbyn in 2020.

Yeah, it was a good tactical move but ultimately was a horrible mistake.

 
I expect the Tories don't get a clean majority in the elections, and have to give up more to the Liberal Democrats to keep the coalition moving along. UKIP, under Nigel Farage, sees an explosion of support leading to them landing perhaps more than a single seat, though not likely into the double digits.
 
The butterflies which came out of the decision not to give a referendum would be interesting. Would Labour decide to step in and fill the void by offering a referendum themselves? My gut would say probably not, but if they did maybe and we saw more defections to UKIP the two would take more votes off of the Tories in 2015, and Miliband would be in the 250 seats plus territory that might mean Labour could realistically form a minority with the SNP, so although the Tories would still win the most seats by some way, they would be in minority, and the result would be altogether messier, and maybe there would be a second election.

If neither of those things happen, the result would probably as other posters have said, a few seats would shift one way or another but nothing major. The Tories would form a minority government, the Lib Dems would probably not consider joining them again after losing most of there seats.
 
Before the election I thought the Conservatives and Liberals should have agreed to continue the coalition into the next Parliament and fight a joint election campaign in 2015, something along the lines of we won't contest the seats you already hold if you don't contest ours. My thinking behind that was that the Coalition was more likely to win a Parliamentary majority and it would have a bigger share of the votes cast.

Therefore because David Cameron didn't need the support of the anti-EU element of his party as badly and because the Liberals wouldn't have it in the first place, no promise for an EU referendum.

Whether remaining in the EU would have been better than leaving remains to be seen.
 
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