WI: California and Texas switched fates?

What if most Americans who moved to Mexico decided to move to California instead of Texas with Alta California secedes in 1836 with Texas doing what California did and seceding during the Mexican american war? What would be required for more Americans to move to California instead of Texas? Would California be a larger state than it is now? Would Texas be smaller? Could a California that replaces Texas in 1836 become a slave state? What else could change?
 
Probably the best POD would be discovering gold in California much earlier.

It's possible that California seceding from Mexico would include Baja California as well.
 

Garetor

Gone Fishin'
Probably the best POD would be discovering gold in California much earlier.

It's possible that California seceding from Mexico would include Baja California as well.

I wonder how much Spain/Mexico could hold onto California with world-famous gold reserves, though. It might give the British even more incentive to drive down from Canada and set up shop, at least in the Bay Area.
 
Probably the best POD would be discovering gold in California much earlier.

It's possible that California seceding from Mexico would include Baja California as well.
Not impossible. I mean, Texas was originally much smaller and just decided to claim a lot of New Mexico.
Mapa_Mexico_1840_1.PNG
 
I wonder how much Spain/Mexico could hold onto California with world-famous gold reserves, though. It might give the British even more incentive to drive down from Canada and set up shop, at least in the Bay Area.
I don't care what the POD is, as long as it ends up with California seceding in 1836 and joining the US in 1846.
 

Garetor

Gone Fishin'
Sooo...maybe a British explorer around 1800 discovers the massive gold reserves in California, brings the news back to Britain. During the Peninsular War, Britain takes the Bay Area for "safekeeping", and to plug the hole in their finances fighting Napoleon is leaving. They reluctantly hand it back to Spain after the war, but they barely get the benefit as Mexico secedes shortly thereafter. The flood of anglo-american settlers continues until they decide to break off and form their own country. Eventually, the american half of anglo-american decidedly outnumbers Brits and they move to unite with their mother country. I'm guessing that with a sizeable British contingent, it would not be a slave state.

This might result in America not getting Puget sound, though, as IIRC Polk had little desire to actually fight the British over 54'40'. The British could point out that we already have a fantastic west coast port in San Francisco, and "a port for a port" sounds like a compromise you could sell to the public, especially if it means not having to fear a British 5th column in California.
 
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Sooo...maybe a British explorer around 1800 discovers the massive gold reserves in California, brings the news back to Britain. During the Peninsular War, Britain takes the Bay Area for "safekeeping", and to plug the hole in their finances fighting Napoleon is leaving. They reluctantly hand it back to Spain after the war, but they barely get the benefit as Mexico secedes shortly thereafter. The flood of anglo-american settlers continues until they decide to break off and form their own country. Eventually, the american half of anglo-american decidedly outnumbers Brits and they move to unite with their mother country. I'm guessing that with a sizeable British contingent, it would not be a slave state.

This might result in America not getting Puget sound, though, as IIRC Polk had little desire to actually fight the British over 54'40'. The British could point out that we already have a fantastic west coast port in San Francisco, and "a port for a port" sounds like a compromise you could sell to the public, especially if it means not having to fear a British 5th column in California.
Is there a POD that doesn't have the British get involved? Because I would like it if this situation for California was just a Texas on the west coast.
 

Garetor

Gone Fishin'
Lewis and Clark make a detour, have a geologist tagging along, and discover signs of extremely rich gold deposits? California replaces Oregon in the popular imagination of Americans as the westward paradise, and by 1836 you have enough Anglos there to break off.

It helps that the Bay Area is one of the mildest and easily cultivatable areas on earth. The gold just kickstarts things. Once there's a good port and township in SF, people will flood in.
 
Lewis and Clark make a detour, have a geologist tagging along, and discover signs of extremely rich gold deposits? California replaces Oregon in the popular imagination of Americans as the westward paradise, and by 1836 you have enough Anglos there to break off.

It helps that the Bay Area is one of the mildest and easily cultivatable areas on earth. The gold just kickstarts things. Once there's a good port and township in SF, people will flood in.
I like this one most since it’s closest to OTL’s Texas. So let’s assume Americans move to California like they did Texas and Oregon. How big is the modern state of California if the “Republic of California” has all of Alta and Baja California? Is California the same size or does it get part of Nevada and Arizona? How does the Mexican American war go?
 
How would a Mexican-American war start if Texas is still part of Mexico?
Dispute over the Californian border?

With all of Baja and Alta Californian territory would California even want to join the U.S. or stay its own country?
 
With all of Baja and Alta Californian territory would California even want to join the U.S. or stay its own country?
Well it would be a bunch of Americans who would secede from Mexico in hopes to join the us. If California goes into bankruptcy like Texas it has no other choice. Plus most of the land they would have would be desert. It’s not like Texas where most of the land can be used for agriculture. If they don’t discover the silver in Nevada and Arizona then an independent California wouldn’t even have many minital recourses aside from the gold in the Bay Area. Plus Mexico wouldn’t recognize them since Mexico didn’t even recognize Texas. And if Mexico still held onto most of Alta California (like how they did with land Texas claimed) it wouldn’t even be a question. You could even still have a situation where Texas becomes independent and is an ally of California with both wishing to be admitted into the Union.
 
Everybody is focusing on Cali, but I'd argue your bigger problem is delaying the Anglo settlement of Texas to the extent youd need to keep it part of Mexico longer than their western counterpart. It's right next to the US, after all, with better river and sea access, the slavery tensions, and large dynamic Indian tribes the Mexicans need help surpressing.
 
Everybody is focusing on Cali, but I'd argue your bigger problem is delaying the Anglo settlement of Texas to the extent youd need to keep it part of Mexico longer than their western counterpart. It's right next to the US, after all, with better river and sea access, the slavery tensions, and large dynamic Indian tribes the Mexicans need help surpressing.

I would imagine that both a California and Texas breaking free from Mexico would be more likely than just California alone.
 

Garetor

Gone Fishin'
Also, since Cali is being colonized earlier in this timeline, maybe the Mexicans have gotten wise to the trouble Anglo settlers bring.
 
I would imagine that both a California and Texas breaking free from Mexico would be more likely than just California alone.

Agreed. I can certainly see the Mexican government extending the land grant program throughout its northwest; perhaps due to having riled up tribes further west, facing Russian probing, or as a result of an attempted revolt by the Missions. However, that's not the conditions laid out by the op.
 
Agreed. I can certainly see the Mexican government extending the land grant program throughout its northwest; perhaps due to having riled up tribes further west, facing Russian probing, or as a result of an attempted revolt by the Missions. However, that's not the conditions laid out by the op.
I’m ok with that actually. It’s not a full cookie, but it’s acceptable if it’s the only realistic way.
 
I’m ok with that actually. It’s not a full cookie, but it’s acceptable if it’s the only realistic way.

It's really a problem with geography more than anything else. I mean, to get to Texas all you need to do is hop on a shop plying the gulf of ride in from NO (Which you can get to by river or boat easy). Getting to Call requires crossing the Rockies, the Great Plains, ect. over grueling (and expensive, and risky to life and limb) months or taking the Terra del Fuego route. Without a strong pull factor, you're just not going to see many people choosing the later over the former.
 
It's really a problem with geography more than anything else. I mean, to get to Texas all you need to do is hop on a shop plying the gulf of ride in from NO (Which you can get to by river or boat easy). Getting to Call requires crossing the Rockies, the Great Plains, ect. over grueling (and expensive, and risky to life and limb) months or taking the Terra del Fuego route. Without a strong pull factor, you're just not going to see many people choosing the later over the former.
Let’s just go with what @Garetor said and say that Americans still go into Texas, and that those go go to cali go there for the gold.
 
You could see more travel westwards in a scenario where the rush for the Oregon Country begins earlier too - then you have that greater volume of people heading West in general. Though, again, why go to California when Oregon is there?

Granted, the conditions are close OTL. You don't even need gold to get a Yankee majority in California, as it was Yankee majority in 1848. What you need is for there to be a draw great enough to get people to migrate starting in the 1820s.

Perhaps more land being locked up (say, due to the native reservations), more trouble in Europe driving more immigration, and an earlier Western march to Oregon and, consequently, California as well?
 
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