WI: Caesar survives the Ides of March

According to Roman sources bordering between folklore and history, Caesar was directly or indirectly warned several times that there was a plot to assassinate him. IOTL, he ignored these rumors, to fatal consequence. What might have happened had he rather either 1) declared the Ides an inauspicious day in his capacity as Pontifex Maximus, 2) done as several in his inner circle suggested and stayed close to Antony and other loyal and physically capable supporters of him in the Senate, or 3) somehow called out the conspirators in such a way as to destroy their plausible deniability--i.e. by exposing that each had borne weapons to the Curia on the Ides? Would he once again extend clementia to his opponents, or exile or execute the plotters?

What would be the lasting impacts on Rome as a whole? How might Caesar's reforms differ from Octavian Augustus' IOTL? Would Egypt/Cleopatra/Caesarion ever play a role in Roman politics, or would Caesar be wise enough to distance himself from Egypt?

Might Caesar retire after his reforms and allow some semblance of normalcy to return, i.e. becoming a Sulla Popularis? Would he die a natural death without relinquishing dictatorial office? Or would he be killed by a later plot? In either of the last two cases, would Octavian still be named his heir, or would he try to set up Antony or someone else as his successor?

What would be the longer-term impacts, and would the Republic survive in more than just name?
 
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Caesar planned war against Dachia and Parthia just before his death so that would be first thing what would happen. Another thing is how wars would end. Caesar probably would win Dachians but not sure with Parthians.
 
Caesar planned war against Dachia and Parthia just before his death so that would be first thing what would happen. Another thing is how wars would end. Caesar probably would win Dachians but not sure with Parthians.

I dunno, the Parthians don t really impress one militarily and Caesar is, well, Caesar. If anyone could pull a Trajan in this era I think it would be him.
 
I dunno, the Parthians don t really impress one militarily and Caesar is, well, Caesar. If anyone could pull a Trajan in this era I think it would be him.

Indeed. The trick is being cautious enough to advance through an indirect northerly route over rough terrain, rather than being dumb and letting yourself get caught in the desert. Against a skilled and cautious Roman commander, the Parthians didn't really have many options.

And perhaps the only thing that can increase Caesar's prestige at this point is recovering Crassus' Aquilae.

Who is left in control of Rome to sort out the aftermath of the assassination and make sure that no hostile power base develops? Antony seems too vital to Caesar as second in command...perhaps he engineers the consuls of 43 CE to be Lepidus and Octavian to give his grand-nephew a test at civil administration?

How do Caesar's reforms continue down the road?

Oh, and is the rise of Christianity possibly butterflied? Caesar was very tolerant of the Jews, and perhaps would have been able to prevent the power struggles emerging in Iudaea which ultimately resulted in Jesus' crucifixion...perhaps Judaism follows a more proselytizing/universalist path, with the Jews per se evolving into a semihereditary priesthood-esque institution whilst gentile proselytes--though they can convert in full--are given membership in the community as something of an evolution of the idea of ger toshav--and, crucially, not requiring circumcision? An evangelical Judaism did appeal to many people IOTL...if Caesar directly supports it, might it manage to supplant the old cults in similar way to Christianity and other mystery cults?
 
Indeed. The trick is being cautious enough to advance through an indirect northerly route over rough terrain, rather than being dumb and letting yourself get caught in the desert. Against a skilled and cautious Roman commander, the Parthians didn't really have many options.

And perhaps the only thing that can increase Caesar's prestige at this point is recovering Crassus' Aquilae.

Who is left in control of Rome to sort out the aftermath of the assassination and make sure that no hostile power base develops? Antony seems too vital to Caesar as second in command...perhaps he engineers the consuls of 43 CE to be Lepidus and Octavian to give his grand-nephew a test at civil administration?

How do Caesar's reforms continue down the road?

Oh, and is the rise of Christianity possibly butterflied? Caesar was very tolerant of the Jews, and perhaps would have been able to prevent the power struggles emerging in Iudaea which ultimately resulted in Jesus' crucifixion...perhaps Judaism follows a more proselytizing/universalist path, with the Jews per se evolving into a semihereditary priesthood-esque institution whilst gentile proselytes--though they can convert in full--are given membership in the community as something of an evolution of the idea of ger toshav--and, crucially, not requiring circumcision? An evangelical Judaism did appeal to many people IOTL...if Caesar directly supports it, might it manage to supplant the old cults in similar way to Christianity and other mystery cults?

Alright, this is my piece on the whole subject.

Caesar reads the note given to him by the informer and is effectively forewarned of the assasination. Since he doesn’t have time to recall his bodyguards, he calls some of the men in Lepidus’ army, which is about to sail for Spain, surrounds the Senate with some of them, and enters the Senate with others. The conspirators panick, since, as we know, they hardly kept their cool, and proceed to kill themselves with their daggers. Those who didn’t do it are seized by Caesar’s men and confined somewhere, then they’re given trial where they’re sentenced with death. Caesar is merciful enough to give second chances, but he never gave third chances to any of his enemies. From there he proceeds to smooth things over with the remaining senators, reassure them that there would be no witch hunt and that everything would be fine. Considering several of the conspirators had been designated as consuls for the coming years, Caesar rearranges the list. Hirtius and Pansa were exactly the kind of Caesarian moderates Caesar needed to let things cool off while he was away, so I assume he would keep them for 43. I doubt Caesar ever meant to make Octavian consul just yet, he wanted him to be his magister equitum in the expedition against Dacia and Parthia, so I guess he would still leave with Caesar. Personally, although this is pure speculation, I believe Caesar was slowly paving the way for Octavian to eventually succeed him in what would have been an inherited position. Nicolaus of Damascus said he had access to Caesar like few others did. Caesar also made him a patrician, heir of most of his fortune and of his name, a member of the pontiff’s college and, at least nominally, his second in command for the incoming military campaign. Those are all clear hints to me of special favour granted to the youth. I also doubt Caesar would have ever changed his mind and named another successor in Octavian’s place. Antony, despite the role he had in OTL after Cesar’s assasination, was not his right hand man, he had just happened to be consul at the most convenient time. Antony was a popular guy, with a good network of clients and an overall reliable officer. But after his performance in 47 as magister equitum, I doubt Caesar ever considered entrusting him with his legacy, even if there had apparently been a reconciliation. He’d probably be sent to Macedonia and would lead campaigns in the Balkans. Lepidus was a tool, to be used when most useful, to be discarded when useless, Caesar knew it, everybody knew it, he’d go to Spain, where he was meant to go from the beginning, and stay quiet over there. As for Caesar’s exploits, I assume they’re going to go well, keeping Dacia in check, making Armenia a Roman client state and expanding the border to with Parthia to Mesopotamia, all in the best case scenario. Caesar was tolerant of Jews, but I wouldn’t go as far as to say he would, or even could, influence Hebraism in any significant way. Jews never took kindly to outsiders meddling with their business, doubt they’d let Caesar do that. He was tolerant, yes, but still a pagan nonetheless, and Jews aren’t forgetting that. Caesar would probably would do what Antony did, support Herod as king of Judea and leave things at that. As for the future, after the campaigns in Parthia? There’s really know way to know. I’ll just say what I think could have happened. Caesar was a reckless man, and despite his brilliance, not as wise a politician as Octavian would turn out to be. Plus, he was 56 in 44 BCE, I’d say he had 15-20 years on him tops, not nearly enough to lead a proper transition from a Republic where aristocrats used to compete with each other for prestige, to a Monarchy where one aristocrat is in power and the others have no chance to be. Caesar wouldn’t leave his rank, he thought Sulla was stupid for doing so, and he certainly wouldn’t bring the Republic back to what it was, he once said that “Republic” was just a word to him. Thus, things would be stable as long as he lives, presumably dying in his bed, still as dictator. When he dies though, I can see the likes of Antony and Dolabella questioning Octavian’s succession. Would Caesar arrange for things to run smoothly and seamlessly? Who knows, but my bet is that Octavian will have to fight for his position, and, eventually, he’d come on top in any case like he did in OTL. After that, he gets to shape the Roman world as he best sees fit, fixing some of Caesar’s mistakes, and making a more stable succession. Would he marry Livia? Would he have male children? Would he do things exactly as he did in OTL? Those aren’t questions that can be answered, but imo, the Roman Empire wouldn’t be that much different, except Caesar, and not Augustus, would be recognized as its founder.
 

For the political aspect of things, I agree that this is a plausible outcome if not the only plausible one. Caesar's views on the Republic were complicated, to see the least, but if nothing else he was a bit more socially liberal than Octavian from what I gather. Literarily, this might have some consequences--I would love to see a greater portion of Ovid's works surviving, to give an example--but IDK if it has political ones. It is also possible that butterflies mean that Octavian has a surviving son, of course...

Religiously, on the other hand, I might be inclined to disagree with your points about Judaism. It was as a result of the last civil war of the Republic that Iudaea moved to become a province rather than a client kingdom. Caesar would not do this if he could avoid it, based on his OTL actions, so the Herodian kingdom likely will not see the same political changes that occurred under Augustus as the latter took an increased interest in Iudaea after the civil wars IOTL. If the conflicts between Roman magistrates and various Jewish factions that IOTL lead, according to some scholars, to the execution of Jesus as part of the political intrigues of the time, are prevented, then Christianity might never spread or might even never diverge from Judaism.

Of course, "no Christianity" on its own still has massive impacts. Eventually, IMO, some other religion will replace or supplement the old cults given their flaws in providing people with a great deal of personal spiritual experience (short of course for mystery cults, whose induction rites--if only by virtue of being attached to particular sites--were inaccessible to the poor). The question becomes, then, which deity or deities replace the old cults and function as an alt-Christianity. As I see it, contenders include:

--Mithras--highly popular with the army, but is difficult to see becoming a popular faith unless it drops the restriction on women in the cult.

--Sol Invictus--may well be butterflied by historical changes as it was essentially a Frankenstein of other cults assembled for state purposes.

--Isis--highly popular with the people, but some aspects of the cult were highly unpleasing to the elite at various times--namely, the supreme female deity in the patriarchal Roman tradition might be quite difficult to reconcile.

--Alt-Judaism--IOTL, at the time in question, there were substantial numbers of converts to Judaism in the Empire and some scholars who advocated proselytizing. Its main obstacle would be overcoming the barrier that circumcision played in Roman society. If it can do this, however, it IMO has enough in it to appeal to the common people without seeming a threat to those in power--if anything, the heavy emphasis on the Law could end up appealing to the traditional Roman power system. As I mentioned, a "Judaism-lite" seems to me one of the few cults that can appeal to many aspects of Roman culture without alienating any one group, and thus makes it a possible victor of the religious competition.
 
For the political aspect of things, I agree that this is a plausible outcome if not the only plausible one. Caesar's views on the Republic were complicated, to see the least, but if nothing else he was a bit more socially liberal than Octavian from what I gather. Literarily, this might have some consequences--I would love to see a greater portion of Ovid's works surviving, to give an example--but IDK if it has political ones. It is also possible that butterflies mean that Octavian has a surviving son, of course...

Religiously, on the other hand, I might be inclined to disagree with your points about Judaism. It was as a result of the last civil war of the Republic that Iudaea moved to become a province rather than a client kingdom. Caesar would not do this if he could avoid it, based on his OTL actions, so the Herodian kingdom likely will not see the same political changes that occurred under Augustus as the latter took an increased interest in Iudaea after the civil wars IOTL. If the conflicts between Roman magistrates and various Jewish factions that IOTL lead, according to some scholars, to the execution of Jesus as part of the political intrigues of the time, are prevented, then Christianity might never spread or might even never diverge from Judaism.

Of course, "no Christianity" on its own still has massive impacts. Eventually, IMO, some other religion will replace or supplement the old cults given their flaws in providing people with a great deal of personal spiritual experience (short of course for mystery cults, whose induction rites--if only by virtue of being attached to particular sites--were inaccessible to the poor). The question becomes, then, which deity or deities replace the old cults and function as an alt-Christianity. As I see it, contenders include:

--Mithras--highly popular with the army, but is difficult to see becoming a popular faith unless it drops the restriction on women in the cult.

--Sol Invictus--may well be butterflied by historical changes as it was essentially a Frankenstein of other cults assembled for state purposes.

--Isis--highly popular with the people, but some aspects of the cult were highly unpleasing to the elite at various times--namely, the supreme female deity in the patriarchal Roman tradition might be quite difficult to reconcile.

--Alt-Judaism--IOTL, at the time in question, there were substantial numbers of converts to Judaism in the Empire and some scholars who advocated proselytizing. Its main obstacle would be overcoming the barrier that circumcision played in Roman society. If it can do this, however, it IMO has enough in it to appeal to the common people without seeming a threat to those in power--if anything, the heavy emphasis on the Law could end up appealing to the traditional Roman power system. As I mentioned, a "Judaism-lite" seems to me one of the few cults that can appeal to many aspects of Roman culture without alienating any one group, and thus makes it a possible victor of the religious competition.

I’m not totally convinced that Jesus wouldn’t die in any case in some other way and pull the resuscitation act again. He died in Tiberius’ time, almost a century after Cesar’s death, and even assuming that Caesar in this ATL dies in his 70’s, it’d still be a long time until Jesus comes along. A lot of things can happen in the meanwhile, and I don’t think Caesar, in his somewhat limited time, would be capable of influencing Judaism to the point of undoubtedly saving Jesus’ life.

Besides, what if Christianity doesn’t even need Jesus? After all, Saint Paul was the driving force behind Christianity, and there were surely prophets aplenty in Judea whose sacrifice or exploits he could write about.

In any case, let’s say Christianity’s breakthrough is butterflied, who’s to say people in the empire won’t just remain pagan and worship several deities? Does one religion really need to prevail? Diocletian totally meant to make the emperor the only universally recognized god around, and for all we know, that might have worked down the line without Christianity.

Or really, Judaism could have spread if it became way less segregate and proselytizing is actively supported. I don’t think there’s any real way to know, as I see it, all options listed above are possible for me.
 
Caesar was 56 when he died. Say he goes to war against Dachia and Parthia, Gaul took 7 years and a 63 year old man is pretty old for that time. So even assuming he wins, I doubt he has time to set up a kingdom in Rome before he dies. Republicans would still be in a significant force.

The civil war may happen much later but it will be a very different war.
 
If he defeats Parthia could contact with Han China be possible?

Contatcting China would still be quiet challenging. Even in OTL Rome and China never created very last connection altough they knew about each others already in 2nd century. And land between Parthia and China was still pretty much settled by several local tribes which might be dangerous for any foreign people.
 
Contatcting China would still be quiet challenging. Even in OTL Rome and China never created very last connection altough they knew about each others already in 2nd century. And land between Parthia and China was still pretty much settled by several local tribes which might be dangerous for any foreign people.

Between Bactres in Bactria and northern China you have something as 6000 km of mountains, deserts and steppe.

Some commercial conracts perhaps, maybe some unofficial ambassadors...
 
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