What would be the most important butterflies? I assume that Octavian would never be an important figure if Caesar had named Antony rather than him as his heir. Would Antony have been assassinated, just like Caeasar? It seems like the republic was already doomed, even though Caesars assassinators tried to save it. Would Antony have tried to establish a system like the one Octavian later established? And if he got killed shortly after Caesar, would this just delay such a development with another person rising to replace Antony (possibly his heir)?
WI: Caesar names Mark Antony his heir.
- Thread starter Eivind
- Start date
Interesting scenario. Here's my thoughts, Antony would very quickly secure the support of Caesar's legions and Leipidus. I imagine he then leads them against Brutus-Cassius and beats them per otl.
I don't think Antony would have established anything like the Principate. He had interest in eastern style kingship, as shown by his offer of the crown to Caesar and his later career in the East. However I don't think he would ever be bold enough to make himself king. So the Republic limbs with Antony and Lepidus as the dominate figures. Sextus Pompey as well would play a role.
I don't think Antony would have established anything like the Principate. He had interest in eastern style kingship, as shown by his offer of the crown to Caesar and his later career in the East. However I don't think he would ever be bold enough to make himself king. So the Republic limbs with Antony and Lepidus as the dominate figures. Sextus Pompey as well would play a role.
Philippe le Bel
Banned
With the dictator dead, Antony is now the lone consul. Even in OTL he was very powerful after the assassination, now that Caesar is dead and Antony can play the grieving son, literally adopted by the great man, he should be unstoppable for at least a while. Destroys or drives away his enemies, hunts remaining enemies down in the east while leaving loyal men in the west. As alcibiades says, he will probably become decadent in the east as in OTL. Maybe less so now that he has to keep an eye on the west, maybe more so now that he doesn't have to worry about a powerful genius like Augustus at his back. Who knows, without the need to maintain his high position he might do as James Purefoy suggested and retire to private estates to plow his fields and fuck his slaves, just like old Cincinnatus.
Or maybe life and gathering of power in the east before setting out, disastrously or with glory, to conquer Parthia? Could he end as Crassus did, or maybe even a latter-day Alexander, an exalted madman? One thing is sure I think, that he didn't have the vision or drive to institute a settlement like Augustus's. He would continue to use bought tribunes and the threat of violence to maintain the legitimacy of his power.
Or maybe life and gathering of power in the east before setting out, disastrously or with glory, to conquer Parthia? Could he end as Crassus did, or maybe even a latter-day Alexander, an exalted madman? One thing is sure I think, that he didn't have the vision or drive to institute a settlement like Augustus's. He would continue to use bought tribunes and the threat of violence to maintain the legitimacy of his power.
As you point out, since he also has a power basis in the west in this scenario, an Eastern style of government would not be accepted there. Even OTL Antonys behaviour in Egypt annoyed the Romans, but if he was the sole ruler, such a behaviour would be seen even more as a threat. Even if he did not have any immediate rival, he would have to worry about attempts to kill him. Republican ideas still had a lot of support and a behaviour looking to much like a king would not be accepted. There was after all a reason why Octavian did try to keep some semblance of the republic.
I doubt Caesar would ever have chosen Anthony as his main heir. Caesar knew Anthony’s character precisely enough and was aware of his weaknesses.
One should take into account that Anthony was disgraced for 2 years between late 47 and mid 45 after he had messed up in Italy in 47.
But if ever Caesar temporarily lost his shrewdness and made Anthony his heir, then Anthony may fail to establish a lasting power.
While I don't think a full fledged eastern style of government would be tolerated by the Romans, I think in TTL they might tolerate his OTL behavior in Egypt and allow him to create a series of Antony-Pontates in the East as long as he doesn't have any major mess-ups. I think a Parthian campaign with triple OTL manpower might succeed past the OTL betrayal of his Armenian mercs. Heck, OTL manpower should have been enough for a limited victory (he wants the lost standards, tribute, a some of their farmlands for Rome, not total conquest) if he had the sense to not hire mercs who backstab and burn his baggage train! Anyways, my point being is that he would be in a good position and a little decadence isn't going to completely kill his PR. An alliance with Lepidus and carefully picking his fights should keep him on top.
Given that Octavian was apparently rather frail in his youth and constantly sick, having him die before Caesar redraws his will could be enough of a POD, yet I d struggle to see Caesar actually name Antony alone. Antony was actually out of favor at the time of the will being made, he may actually divide up everything to more people.
Of course that could cause problems in itself given that the will named Decimus Brutus as an inheritor, was one of his favorites, and also one of the assassins.
Of course that could cause problems in itself given that the will named Decimus Brutus as an inheritor, was one of his favorites, and also one of the assassins.
Other reason Caesar would probably not choose Anthony as his heir, even if Octavian died before Caesar, was his OTL will.
Caesar’s choice of Octavius as his heir was certainly provisional. The most important fact is that Octavius did not know that Caesar had adopted him by his will.
Caesar had several successive main heirs : Pompey from 59 to 48, most probably his loyal cousin Sextus Julius Caesar from 48 to 46 when Sextus Julius Caesar was assassinated in Syria, and then Octavian, and probably not from 46 on to 44 but from late 45 on.
And however, you don’t even find Anthony as a possible second rank heir in Caesar’s last will in the case his first rank heirs would die.
And his first rank heirs were, first of all his grandnephew Octavian (for 3 quarters of his inheritance) and his 2 other nephews Pedius and Pinarius Scarpus (for 1 eighth each).
The one named as second rank heir if the first rank heirs died was noticeably Decimus (not Marcus) Junius Brutus.
This makes quite obvious that Caesar was far more republican than Octavian and that Caesar never intended that his personal heir should be his successor to supreme power.
As Ronald Syme masterfully realized, Caesar was another Sulla, except for cruelty.
I am curious as to why this is Sextus and not Lucius? I mean Lucius Caesar (Antony's uncle) was with Caesar consistently during the Gallic Wars and was also incredibly loyal to him, even if his son was loyal to Pompey. Well, I guess that is a disqualifier in itself - don't want your money going to the enemy.
Decimus is probably one of the most unluckiest men ever following Caesar's death. Kinda sad.
Because this Sextus was the grandson of Caesar’s paternal uncle, also named Sextus Julius Caesar, who had been consul in 91.
The younger Sextus had always been a strong and loyal supporter of Caesar.
The Lucius Julius Caesar who was Anthony’s maternal uncle, was from a very distant branch of the Julii Caesares : descending from brothers born by 200BC.
And the son of this Lucius, also named Lucius, was such an enemy of Caesar, and a wicked one, that Caesar made an exception to his clemencia and let his soldiers execute this Lucius cousin of Anthony (while Lucius the father, consul in 64, was a moderate who worked to avoid and cool down the conflict and finally worked for Caesar).
The younger Sextus had always been a strong and loyal supporter of Caesar.
The Lucius Julius Caesar who was Anthony’s maternal uncle, was from a very distant branch of the Julii Caesares : descending from brothers born by 200BC.
And the son of this Lucius, also named Lucius, was such an enemy of Caesar, and a wicked one, that Caesar made an exception to his clemencia and let his soldiers execute this Lucius cousin of Anthony (while Lucius the father, consul in 64, was a moderate who worked to avoid and cool down the conflict and finally worked for Caesar).
Decimus would probably be excluded for obvious reasons.
Julius Caesar had two other grandnephews, Lucius Pinarius and Quintus Pedius (I raised this WI a while back), who inherited an eighth each, so it's more likely that one makes a gentleman's agreement with the other, as both did with Octavian in OTL.