WI Caesar dies at Alexandria (47 BC)

[John Fredrick Parker]

During the Siege of Alexandria (47 BC), Julius Caesar attempted to seize the island of Pharos and gain control of the royal harbor, but was defeated on land and forced to retreat; during the ride back to the palace, his boat capsized and, being in full armor, Caesar started to sink. IOTL, it was only by quick thinking that he was able to take off his armor before he drowned, and with enough energy left to swim back to shore; but supposing he had failed to do so?

How is history changed, now that Caesar is dead? How does the situation in Egypt play out? Or the campaigns of Pharnaces II? How does Mark Antony fare in Rome without Caesar’s return? What of Cato and the Pompeians in North Africa? And depending on how all these forces play out, how is history changed?

@LumineVonReuental @SlyDessertFox @vandevere @Matteo

 

[vandevere]

During the Siege of Alexandria (47 BC), Julius Caesar attempted to seize the island of Pharos and gain control of the royal harbor, but was defeated on land and forced to retreat; during the ride back to the palace, his boat capsized and, being in full armor, Caesar started to sink. IOTL, it was only by quick thinking that he was able to take off his armor before he drowned, and with enough energy left to swim back to shore; but supposing he had failed to do so?

How is history changed, now that Caesar is dead? How does the situation in Egypt play out? Or the campaigns of Pharnaces II? How does Mark Antony fare in Rome without Caesar’s return? What of Cato and the Pompeians in North Africa? And depending on how all these forces play out, how is history changed?

@LumineVonReuental @SlyDessertFox @vandevere @Matteo

Ugh...Think we're looking at a really vicious round of civil wars. Had Caesar already formally adopted Octavian by then?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Ugh...Think we're looking at a really vicious round of civil wars. Had Caesar already formally adopted Octavian by then?

IIRC, Caesar filed the will which was read following his OTL death following Munda; in any event, I’m fairly certain Octavian wasn’t Caesar’s heir at this time.

 

[vandevere]

IIRC, Caesar filed the will which was read following his OTL death following Munda; in any event, I’m fairly certain Octavian wasn’t Caesar’s heir at this time.

Then, pardon my French, but it's going to be a royal shit fest in Rome. Has Cleopatra already been recognized as Queen of Egypt? And...has Caesarion even been conceived yet?

Think things are going to go really sideways in Rome. And possibly Egypt too...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Then, pardon my French, but it's going to be a royal shit fest in Rome. Has Cleopatra already been recognized as Queen of Egypt? And...has Caesarion even been conceived yet?

Caesar may have had a will written at this time, but I have little to no idea of what it said. And Mark Antony was making himself very unpopular in Rome around this time, to put it mildly.

As to Cleopatra - she has not given birth to Caesarion yet and likely won’t TTL; to start, while Caesar’s legions are still holding the 13 year old Pharoh (her father’s eldest son) and his advisors captive, her sister Arsinoe had already escaped the palace at this time and joined the besieging army/mob outside. So I think it fairly likely that Arsinoe, not Cleopatra, becomes Queen of Egypt here, at least in the short term; what Rome makes of this in the longer term, I couldn’t say.

 

[wcv215]

And...has Caesarion even been conceived yet?

Doesn't matter since Caesarian legally cannot be Caesar's heir.

Most likely Caesar's heir is Brutus, who was the backup heir even after Octavian was posthumously adopted. So either he takes power, restores the Senate to power until the next time a general decides to go against them, which at the rate the Republic was going will be maybe a decade, or Antony tries to hold power and the Republic tears itself apart without Caesar or Octavian around to pick the pieces back up afterward.

 

[wcv215]

Was this Decimus Brutus? Or Marcus Brutus?

Sorry, Decimus.

According to Suetonius Octavian got 3/4 of the estate, two other guys got the rest. If those three had died or turned it down then Decimus Brutus was among the secondary heirs who would have been adopted gotten everything.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

... then Decimus Brutus was among the secondary heirs who would have been adopted gotten everything.

Wasn't Antony also among these secondary heirs? And am I right in assuming history has not recorded the names of the two cousins of Octavian, or of any of the other secondary heirs?

In any event, this was Caesar's latest will OTL, which hasn't been submitted yet TTL - I'm not entirely sure if Caesar had an older will, or what it said.

 

[wcv215]

And am I right in assuming history has not recorded the names of the two cousins of Octavian, or of any of the other secondary heirs?

They were Lucius Pinarius and Quintus Pedius. I don't think any of the other secondary heirs are named, but Decimus is mentioned by both Suetonius and Appian. Antony is not mentioned, and I don't think he was since, if he had been it probably would have been brought up at some point.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I don't think any of the other secondary heirs are named, but Decimus is mentioned by both Suetonius and Appian. Antony is not mentioned, and I don't think he was since, if he had been it probably would have been brought up at some point.

Hm, well it seems I was misinformed then; I had gotten that from Historis Civilis, and he gave as his primary sources Plutarch (who also doesn't mention it), Suetonius, Appian, and Cassius Dio (and Cicero's letters - but I wouldn't think he ever made note of the contents of Caesar's will). So it seems Decimus Brutus was the only secondary heir, or at least the only one we know about.

Again though, this was in his latest will - we still don't know who, if anyone, Caesar named at prior to the civil war.

 

[LumineVonReuental]

That’s quite a delightfully chaotic POD you have there, almost perfect for sheer, unrelenting political strife and confusion for a while. I do have some thoughts on it, let’s go step by step:

The Alexandrian War:

• The Pharos encounter took place after Achillas was murdered, so the Egyptians will be led by Arsinoe and the eunuch Ganymedes (and what a triumph for their authority Caesar’s death will be!).
• We have no way of knowing who’d take command the Roman forces, because the sources never mention any of Caesar’s prominent subordinates having played a role. If I remember correctly, we only know of three officers: Euphranor (the Rhodian admiral), Tiberius Claudius Nero (the Quaestor, father of the emperor Tiberius) and “Rufio” (an unknown legate, appointed by Caesar in command of the legions when he left Egypt). Does Rufio take command? Does Nero – aristocratic and basically an Optimate supporter – accept to serve under a Caesarian, the son of a freedman? It makes for an interesting dilemma.
• The Roman forces are in a somewhat improved position, are being successful at sea and Mithridates’s army is due to arrive in a few weeks as reinforcements. But without Caesar, what is the point of fighting the war? Depending on who takes command, the Romans could still hold on until Mithridates arrives and face Arsinoe… or they could sail off, putting an end to an embarrassing affair.
• Caesarion was born in June 47 BC. Caesar’s death would take place around December or January – I think, not sure -, so Cleopatra would be pregnant. As to whether that would matter it’s hard to say. Even if the Roman officers could be persuaded that Cleopatra is carrying Caesar’s baby, it’s still a half-Egyptian bastard.
• Ptolemy XIII will still be a prisoner, and without Caesar to restrain her, I’m fairly sure Cleopatra will have him assassinated ASAP. She could, I suppose, try to cut a deal using Ptolemy as a bargaining chip, but with Arsinoe’s authority strengthened its perfectly possible Cleopatra can’t successfully undermine Arsinoe after such a crushing blow as losing Caesar.
• To sum it up: Potential for internal chaos within the Romans and possible withdrawal from the war. Arsinoe massively strengthened and favorite to win (if she’s lucky enough to see Ptolemy XIII dying, she can always rule by marrying the young Ptolemy XIV), unless the Romans and Mithridates stand their ground and win an equivalent to the OTL Battle of the Nile.

The Caesarian Inheritance:

• Caesarion being a non-starter, Caesar hasn’t yet written the infamous will in which Octavian was adopted and selected as the heir. Caesar’s pre-Civil War will had Pompey as the heir, and we’d have to assume Caesar would take the time to prepare a new will in Rome before going into Pharsalus (if not, then you get a messy and outdated will in which the secondary heirs will be crucial).
• Who would be the heir? It could well be Mark Antony this time, as he hadn’t yet embarrassed himself and fallen into Caesar’s disapproval (or Antony could attempt to falsify the will). It might also be young Sextus Julius Caesar, son of one of his cousins and by then a Quaestor. In OTL Sextus would be installed to command Syria when Caesar marched against Pharnaces (which opens up the question on whether Sextus was in Alexandria, but if he had been De Bello Alexandrino would have probably mentioned him. There’s always nephews Quintus Pedius and Lucius Pinarius, but he passed them over as his choice for her in OTL and there’s little reason he’d picked either before a not yet disgraced Antony. Or it could be Decimus Brutus, though I think Antony would go first.

The Civil War:

• Rome is in domestic chaos at this time, owing to Antony’s mismanagement of the government and his massive feud with Dolabella (which could get even uglier). This will continue for a while as news of Caesar’s death will take months to reach the city, and when they do the turmoil within the Caesarian faction will be severe, even if it’s just Antony inheriting Caesar’s name as his heir. Bear in mind there’s a lot of former Pompeians and Optimates spared by Caesar who could now embrace their former comrades in Africa.
• I don’t think it would be utterly impossible for Antony and several leading Caesarians and Optimates to reach an agreement under a somewhat different set of circumstances, but Cato and Scipio are going to be the ones leading the faction (not the Pompeian brothers or Pompey’s old retainers), and I can hardly see him agreeing to a compromise if they feel they have gained the advantage. Hard to say whether this means they attempting to invade Italy or waiting for Antony to invade.
• Hispania in particular is a mess thanks to Quintus Cassius’s horrible performance as governor. The news of Caesar’s death and subsequent issues may turn Hispania into a battlefield earlier. Lepidus is there, so that will keep him outside of the initial power struggle in Italy.

Pharnaces:

• Has defeated Calvinus by this point, is seriously threatening the Asian provinces. Whether he makes a lot of progress depends on what happens to Mithridates’s army and the reinforcements sent by Calvinus to Egypt. If they return soon enough Calvinus might be able to contain Pharnaces and his armies – if you consider Pharnaces to have been initially lucky and not a good general -, or Pharnaces could realize his ambition of regaining Pontus. From there it’s hard to read whether he’d get overambitious and attempt to overrun the province of Asia or whether he’d stay put hoping the prolonged civil war helps him to secure his gains. He can cause quite a bit of damage in the East, but he’s not an existential threat, and eventually a commander sent by Antony – or by the Optimates if they win – should be able to overpower him.

Overall Thoughts:

• There’s enough alternatives there to make for a damn good TL, I’d say. As to the historical implications, Caesar goes down in history with a reduced reputation after getting himself killed in a silly, unnecessary adventure (he’ll still go down as one of the great Roman general though).
• The civil war takes a turn as the Optimates’s chances are increased, but in truth not much changes in the west across much of 47 BC until the news of Caesar’s death after finally confirmed. Antony has a mess of his own creation in Italy and undisciplined – but experienced legions -, but he’s still miles ahead of anyone the Optimates can put in command of an army (unless Labienus can stand up to him), and Scipio/Cato may not be able to use Juba’s resources if they have to invade Italy rather than wait for Antony.
• Cleopatra likely becomes a footnote, unless she can retain the support of the Romans and win an Alt-Battle of the Nile. You probably get Queen Arsinoe.
• I do think the scenario is more or less open ended. There’s a number of possibilities to play regarding Caesar’s will, both sides are going to be “matched” in the sense of having significant disadvantages to overcome, and I can honestly see an Optimate or “Caesarian” victory as still being possible.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@LumineVonReuental Let's say Mark Antony isn't named Caesar's heir, but that the will doesn't really help anyone else (e.g. Pompey is still heir, Sextus Julius Caesar is dead, etc). How fucked is Antony in this situation?

As you've mentioned, he's got an Pompeian army in North Africa, a number of former Pompeians and Optimates in Rome looking to ally with them, Dolabella doing very much his own thing, Lepidus being busy in Spain... really, the only thing I can think he has going for him at this point is that the Caesarians want somebody to lead them, and that his enemies are too proud / aristocratic to make full use of Labienus.

CONSOLIDATE:

What a mess !

You have the republican-numidian army concentrating in Africa.

And you have Pompey's two sons who are still in Africa but who may well go to Spain (as they did OTL) to raise their father's clientelae against the inept caesarian governor.

And you have the fact that Caesar has no obvious lieutenant at that time.

I would however bet on the possible decisive role of the kind of central moderate party that had rallied to Caesar and whose members had many links with Servilia, Caesar's old lover : Marcus Aemilius Lepidus (son in law of Servilia), Publius Servilius Isauricus (son in law of Servilia), Marcus Junius Brutus (Servilia's son), Gaius Cassius Longinus.

Add Cicero and the other high moderate nobles that had an important role OTL in the years 44/42 : Servius Sulpicius Rufus, the old Aurelius Cotta (related to Caesar); Lucius Calpurnius Piso (Caesar's last father in law).

[Antony didn't have the power base to make himself dictator and he] knew it. Even in 44, it was telling that his first move was to reach some sort of understanding and compromise with the liberators. Antony's power base and support is really overblown imo. Did Caesar even change his will yet to take Pompey out of it?

And anyway, more important than Pompey's sons (who are great in their own right), Titus Labienus is still alive and kicking. And that man is almost as good a commander as Caesar imo.

Any scenario that doesn't have either (or both):

A. single man rule
B. the egyptian pharaoh choosing the wrong side in a civil war

is generally going to have [no] annexation of Egypt. Because otherwise the senators were not about to let anyone get the credit, clientele, and money that comes with being the one who gets through the annexation and becomes first governor of Egypt.

For the rest of the east, the Romans preferred client states to direct administration wherever possible, so I don't see why the client kings wont last much longer.

Caesar had changed his will before going to Alexandria.

He had read this part of his will some kind of publicly to demonstrate that he had always wanted to find an agreement with Pompey and find an agreement with him.

Between 48 and 46, his heir designated in his will probably was his cousin Sextus Julius Caesar (grandson of the consul of 91).

The reaction of the people would probably he fear : fear of a possible violent victorious and bloody return of the optimates and of Pompey's sons.

That's what Cicero's letters showed.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

Who Caesar's heir is does not really mean much-his heir is not necessarily his political heir, and to the extent that someone can claim to be the main adoptive son of Caesar it only matters what they can do with it-being Caesar's heir got Octavian a foot in the door, but he required immense political cunning and ruthlessness and a fair bit of luck and serious miscalculation (on the part of Cicero) to even get to a point where he could conceivably form a pact with Antony and Lepidus. Sextus Julius Caesar, Decimus Brutus, whoever he declares his main heir, is probably not going to derive significant benefit from it.

Now, on to where things stand in 47 BCE: Antony is in command of Italy, where he is dealing with 4 mutinous legions that were only pacified when Caesar returned. Now perhaps news of Caesar's death could spur the legionaries to rally to avenge him, dealing with the most pressing and immediate issue then facing Antony. The issue then becomes the anti-Caesarian forces in North Africa. There may be an opening for Antony to mend fences with Caesar's opposition at this stage now that Caesar's dead, as he was deftly doing after Caesar's OTL assassination before Octavian stormed in and blew everything up with Cicero's backing.But of course, in 44 BCE the most obstinate anti-Caesarians-namely Cato and Metellus Scipio-were dead, which they are very much not at this point in time. It's unlikely they can win-Labienus in particular is no slouch, but Antony and Lepidus are fine generals in their own right and still command the most effective and seasoned legions around.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Now, on to where things stand in 47 BCE: Antony is in command of Italy, where he is dealing with 4 mutinous legions that were only pacified when Caesar returned. Now perhaps news of Caesar's death could spur the legionaries to rally to avenge him, dealing with the most pressing and immediate issue then facing Antony. The issue then becomes the anti-Caesarian forces in North Africa. There may be an opening for Antony to mend fences with Caesar's opposition at this stage now that Caesar's dead, as he was deftly doing after Caesar's OTL assassination before Octavian stormed in and blew everything up with Cicero's backing.But of course, in 44 BCE the most obstinate anti-Caesarians-namely Cato and Metellus Scipio-were dead, which they are very much not at this point in time. It's unlikely they can win-Labienus in particular is no slouch, but Antony and Lepidus are fine generals in their own right and still command the most effective and seasoned legions around.

I will say, Mark Antony reaching an accommodation with Cato was not a possibility I had considered; he certainly has plenty of incentive to do so, since he's having enough trouble as it is keeping Italy together, and I would imagine most Caesar loyalists would be directing their anger at Egypt at this point. Hell, if Labienus can be *pardoned*, he may well go for it to, since the man who marched on Rome is dead and any alliance with Cato is going to be looking to restore the Republic.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

I will say, Mark Antony reaching an accommodation with Cato was not a possibility I had considered; he certainly has plenty of incentive to do so, since he's having enough trouble as it is keeping Italy together, and I would imagine most Caesar loyalists would be directing their anger at Egypt at this point. Hell, if Labienus can be *pardoned*, he may well go for it to, since the man who marched on Rome is dead and any alliance with Cato is going to be looking to restore the Republic.

To be clear, I was making the point that Cato is the main roadblock in reaching any accomodation with the anti-Caesarian forces.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

To be clear, I was making the point that Cato is the main roadblock in reaching any accomodation with the anti-Caesarian forces.

Well, now that “the tyrant” himself is dead, what does Cato ask for in exchange for peace, or as the goal for further war?

 

[Swedish luck]

what about Labienus he would be the most experienced commander in the roman world and could probably beat the Caesarian forces

 

[isabella]

what about Labienus he would be the most experienced commander in the roman world and could probably beat the Caesarian forces

Antony and Lepidus likely were both on his level so is pretty likely who the Caesarian forces would still win in the end...
Still I do not think impossible an agreement between leaderless Caesarians and Optimates. Cato would not reach a compromise with Caesar but with Antony and Lepidus (who was his relative by marriage)? At this point neither party has the strength for controlling Rome so is likely we will see a return to the status quo before this round of civil war who substantially ended without a winner...

 

[Swedish luck]

Antony and Lepidus likely were both on his level so is pretty likely who the Caesarian forces would still win in the end...
Still I do not think impossible an agreement between leaderless Caesarians and Optimates. Cato would not reach a compromise with Caesar but with Antony and Lepidus (who was his relative by marriage)? At this point neither party has the strength for controlling Rome so is likely we will see a return to the status quo before this round of civil war who substantially ended without a winner...

I would not be so sure Labienus defeated and almost killed Ceaser in a skirmish in North Africa and almost won at Munda and Ceaser victory in North Africa was not assured by any means. Personly I would not compare Lepidus and Antony to Labienus who was instrumental in the conquest of Gaul and the cesareans have another problem they are broke and it was the reason for Ceaser to stay in Egypt to collect the debt Egypt owed Rome.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Still I do not think impossible an agreement between leaderless Caesarians and Optimates. Cato would not reach a compromise with Caesar but with Antony and Lepidus (who was his relative by marriage)? At this point neither party has the strength for controlling Rome so is likely we will see a return to the status quo before this round of civil war who substantially ended without a winner...

To what extent would anyone say an accommodation like this would represent a "restoration" of the Republic? Considering the status quo prior to the war had been the First Triumvarite, then a power struggle between Caesar and Pompey, going "back to normal", even if there are still serious reforms needed, would seem to mean restoration by default.

CONSOLIDATION: Thinking about @LumineVonReuental ideas for how the Alexandrite War goes, I still find myself wondering - how secure will Queen Arsinoe be, given Rome’s reaction to the deaths of Pompey and Caesar, on top of all their other concerns (outstanding debts, etc)?