WI: Byzantines winning at Bapheus

If they manage this - how would be a good question with 5 to 2 odds against them - they might manage to hold on to what they have.

Recovery?

The army is a shadow of its former self and the treasury envies Mother Hubbard's cupboard.

Not to mention that some other Turkish wannabe state will try instead.

There's a very slim chance, but only a very slim one.
 
What makes it cross the line in that regard?

"Too much has changed", that is.

The line crossing, IMHO, comes with the loss of the capital city, and the fragmentation of the Empire amongst several warring successor states. Really, the Empire of Nicaea and the post-1261 state are distinct from the pre-1204 one: as distinct from it, as, say, the Dominion of Soissons was from the WRE. A descendent, sure, but not a continuation.
 
The line crossing, IMHO, comes with the loss of the capital city, and the fragmentation of the Empire amongst several warring successor states. Really, the Empire of Nicaea and the post-1261 state are distinct from the pre-1204 one: as distinct from it, as, say, the Dominion of Soissons was from the WRE. A descendent, sure, but not a continuation.
Well I have to honestly say that Nikea was just one of the successor states. You could say the succestior states were the continuation because they carried on the traditions and heritage of the ere. Its like how rome fell to barbarians but the east survived. So i view the post 1261 empire as RHoamnoi heavily and i mean heavily influenced by the greek culture so you could say backward roman-greeks basically.
 
But whereas the ERE (what we know as the Byzantines) was a direct continuation, Nicaea (and the others) are attempting to resurrect an all-but-destroyed state.
 
But whereas the ERE (what we know as the Byzantines) was a direct continuation, Nicaea (and the others) are attempting to resurrect an all-but-destroyed state.
true but Nicea is core byzantine territory dito epirus. Plus the ruling families had ties to former imperial ruling houses. Its like this you have a country which had its capitol sacked split apart into different factions. The country still survives and its title claimed by aforementioned factions who fight each other for power basically a civil war. EVen if a countries capitol is captured the country has not been exterminated. Good excample of countries who capitols have fallen in the past but still fought on would be france or Russia. Only difference here you have various caliments to the byzantine throne fighting a civil war to determine who should rightfully rule the empire.
 
true but Nicea is core byzantine territory dito epirus. Plus the ruling families had ties to former imperial ruling houses. Its like this you have a country which had its capitol sacked split apart into different factions. The country still survives and its title claimed by aforementioned factions who fight each other for power basically a civil war. EVen if a countries capitol is captured the country has not been exterminated. Good excample of countries who capitols have fallen in the past but still fought on would be france or Russia. Only difference here you have various caliments to the byzantine throne fighting a civil war to determine who should rightfully rule the empire.

If it was just Constantinople, I'd be more inclined to agree - but the Byzantines suffered something rather more like what would happen if Poland managed to resist the second or third partition at best.

I'm not saying you're all wrong, but it is less unambiguous than in 476.
 
If it was just Constantinople, I'd be more inclined to agree - but the Byzantines suffered something rather more like what would happen if Poland managed to resist the second or third partition at best.

I'm not saying you're all wrong, but it is less unambiguous than in 476.
Thats why i said the successors werent fully rhomanoi. They were Graeco-Rhomanoi aka Greeks with heavy influence from the Rhomanoi but different fro their predessor empire.
 
This may preserve an empire that is roughly the size of modern Greece and Eastern Thrace, but it won't allow for the expansion of such a state in any enduring way, except perhaps for bits of the Balkans. Now, if this results in the death of Osman, that might make things interesting with regard to internecine warfare among the Turks.
 
Osman was pretty unique in his approach vis-a-vis Christianity compared to the other Oghullar. It's likely no one fills the gap the Ottomans later filled.

I think Serbia or Bulgaria will be in the best position in such a timeline. Not that they have the impetus or means to fill the niche the Ottomans filled.
 
Osman was pretty unique in his approach vis-a-vis Christianity compared to the other Oghullar. It's likely no one fills the gap the Ottomans later filled.

I think Serbia or Bulgaria will be in the best position in such a timeline. Not that they have the impetus or means to fill the niche the Ottomans filled.

Well, the Bulgarians are past their prime by this point, and the Serbs are likely to burn out eventually. Oddly, we may see the formation of a vaguely familiar situation in the Balkans centuries earlier.
 
A strong showing at Bapheus might, at best, intimidate the Turks and keep them at bay for a generation or so, but knocking the proto-Ottomans down will just encourage another group to take their place.
 
A strong showing at Bapheus might, at best, intimidate the Turks and keep them at bay for a generation or so, but knocking the proto-Ottomans down will just encourage another group to take their place.

Eventually, yes, but what of the near term? The 1300's were an interesting time to have an army in the Balkans.
 
Eventually, yes, but what of the near term? The 1300's were an interesting time to have an army in the Balkans.
Well near term, if the Ottomans are that badly destroyed like others said the Byzantine empire will have breathing space in the Balkans because with such a strong stand I doubt other Turkish Emirates would mess with Byzantium giving Byzantium breathing space to recover(Now all its needs is competant emperors).

Next what you should do is prevent a certain Stephan Dusan from ever becoming anything major in Serbia. Without Dusan Serbia doesnt become like otl.

Plus Bulgaria can do nothing in the balkans against byzantium due to its recent horrific defeat by the mongols. By 1300 Bulgaria could defend against byzantine attacks but did not have the power to launch an\ny major offensives into byzantine territory.

The best way to keep Byzantine possestions in Anatolia in 1302 is for Byzantium to ally with the Ilkhanate some time after the battle of bapheus. Most likely Andronikos marries one of his daughters to the Khan of the Ilkhanate. With an alliance from the Ilkhanae secure i doubt you'd see any turkish state try to attack Byzantium because if it does it gets attacked by the massive Ilkhanate.
So in this tl basically Byzantium will have control of the Anatolian coast(albeit tenious) as well as Nicea, Macedonia, and Greece.

These are my two cents.
 
Well near term, if the Ottomans are that badly destroyed like others said the Byzantine empire will have breathing space in the Balkans because with such a strong stand I doubt other Turkish Emirates would mess with Byzantium giving Byzantium breathing space to recover(Now all its needs is competant emperors).

Next what you should do is prevent a certain Stephan Dusan from ever becoming anything major in Serbia. Without Dusan Serbia doesnt become like otl.

Plus Bulgaria can do nothing in the balkans against byzantium due to its recent horrific defeat by the mongols. By 1300 Bulgaria could defend against byzantine attacks but did not have the power to launch an\ny major offensives into byzantine territory.

The best way to keep Byzantine possestions in Anatolia in 1302 is for Byzantium to ally with the Ilkhanate some time after the battle of bapheus. Most likely Andronikos marries one of his daughters to the Khan of the Ilkhanate. With an alliance from the Ilkhanae secure i doubt you'd see any turkish state try to attack Byzantium because if it does it gets attacked by the massive Ilkhanate.
So in this tl basically Byzantium will have control of the Anatolian coast(albeit tenious) as well as Nicea, Macedonia, and Greece.

These are my two cents.

I agree about Bulgaria and Serbia. Although, with the latter, this POD might dissade the Serbs from some of their adventurism. The Ilkhanate idea is one I had not considered, and could itself spawn some rather interesting butterflies. I agree that Anatolia cannot be kept in the long term, but what I'm wondering about is if this Byzantine Empire can now finish off the Latin states in Greece.
 
Bapheus

I don't think it will make much difference in the long run. The Anatolian peasantry was already largely gone, the country was very poor and depopulated. A Byzantine victory would have only delayed the inevitable.
 
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