There's already a pretty good collaborative TL on this, and we had similarly good DWBI thread going on this subject only a few weeks ago. You should check those out if you haven't yet.
My two cents is that this probably would not have changed much in the long run. On the one hand, Bush would get the credit for the economic recovery and probably be remembered well by the public and by historians. (Ended the Cold War, Persian Gulf, Americans With Disabilities Act, 1992 underdog victory, 1990s economic boom. Although his appointment of Clarance Thomas and his pardoning of Iran-Contra culprits would still be black marks on his record).
But that's a pretty superficial difference. The GOP still moves even harder to the right once 41 leaves office and America continues along its path of severe party polarization. The Democrats win in 1996 and 2000; Dubya might not become POTUS. But 9/11 probably still happens, ditto for the War in Afghanistan. (Can't say the same for Iraq). The GOP likely makes a comeback in 2004, possibly with Giuliani as their candidate. However the 2007-08 Crisis still happens and whoever is in power then will lose in 2008.