WI: Bush Snr. won 1992?

TheNordicBrit

In 1992 Bill Clinton won a fairly big victory over incumbent President George Bush.

Let's say there are no major changes from IOTL, and that simply 361,000 votes in certain states, specifically those states with a 5% margin of victory between Democrats and Republicans. This leads to Bush winning with Bush Snr. losing the popular vote by 4.9, but winning the electoral vote with 275 votes compared to Clinton's 263.

So, what would a second term Bush Snr. Presidency look like? Who would the Republicans choose in the 1996 Primary? McCain? Dole? And who would the Democrats choose? Would they go for Clinton again, or might Gore be chosen instead?
 
Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

It would probably dampen the GOP later on. Bush was not in good straights even in 1988; Lee Atwater and the socio-cultural time bombs he left to explode into the Tea party is to thank for that. He would have barely won 1992. The Republicans are not going to win 1996. I think it will be a time where the Republicans are soundly defeated in the election. Mario Cuomo will be a favorite to run; that doesn't mean he will win the nomination. A lot of other Democrats were waiting until 1996, which is why the dark horse named Clinton got that nomination. And there was a hell of a difference between 1991/1992 and 1995/1996. Things would happen and things would change as they always do. The 1996 election will be a new world, as all election cycles are. I would also go out on a limb and say that there is not the Republican Revolution of 1994. The Republicans may manage to win seats, and I'm not disputing that, but that overwhelming political game changer is something I don't think would occur.

Paul V McNutt said:
George H W Bush 1989 -1997
Bob Dole 1997 -2005
Lamar Alexander 2005 -2009
Barack Obama 2009 -
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εïз

If you changed 1992, 1997 isn't even going to look the same, let alone 2009.
 

Duke 4

96, Bob Dole vs Bob Kerrey. Two good men fighting it out from the mid west. Kerrey wins a close one by turning his home state blue.
 

Ariosto

Next person proposing Barack Obama gets the Presidency, gets shot. :mad: :p

No Republican Revolution that is for sure, and that leaves Quayle in a position to seriously contest the Republican Presidential nomination in '96. James Baker would have Bush's support if he decided to contest, but even if he did I don't see him getting very far unless quite a few things turn in his favor.

Bill Clinton would be the expected Democratic nominee for sure, but that depends on scandals not sinking him. In any case he would likely be facing off against Mario Cuomo (who I believe would finally run under these circumstances), and that would be a scarring primary battle that could go either way.
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Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

Ariosto said:
Next person proposing Barack Obama gets the Presidency, gets shot. :mad: :p

No Republican Revolution that is for sure, and that leaves Quayle in a position to seriously contest the Republican Presidential nomination in '96. James Baker would have Bush's support if he decided to contest, but even if he did I don't see him getting very far unless quite a few things turn in his favor.

Bill Clinton would be the expected Democratic nominee for sure, but that depends on scandals not sinking him. In any case he would likely be facing off against Mario Cuomo (who I believe would finally run under these circumstances), and that would be a scarring primary battle that could go either way.
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Quayle is a joke. He'd be a difficult thing for the GOP because I do think he may well try to run and he'd have the infrastructure behind him, but I don't think the Republican establishment would want him to be the nominee. And he'd put Bush in the difficult position of having to deal with not endorsing him, or endorsing him but not wanting to. In whatever case, I can't see Quayle with the nomination, and I can't see 1996 even being close regardless, but very much not with Dan Quayle.

1996 is four election cycles of Republican victory, with the country already turned on the GOP in 1988 (again, Atwater) and the country turned further against the GOP in 1992. 1996 is 16 years, and the country will be ready for a change. I can't see that election being close.

Clinton would have lost 1992. I don't see him winning the nomination in 1996. You'd have all those Democrats who did not run in 1992 because they had the intent to run in 1996 and assumed Bush would win 1992 go on to run for the nomination in 1996. You'd also have young blood come into play. Clinton would be old hat. He could try, but I doubt he'd land the nomination, and a presidential nominee is never a VP. And he was a dark horse. I don't even know if "Democrat President '96" would appoint him as Secretary of something.
 
DanMcCollum

DanMcCollum

Emperor Norton I said:
Quayle is a joke. He'd be a difficult thing for the GOP because I do think he may well try to run and he'd have the infrastructure behind him, but I don't think the Republican establishment would want him to be the nominee. And he'd put Bush in the difficult position of having to deal with not endorsing him, or endorsing him but not wanting to. In whatever case, I can't see Quayle with the nomination, and I can't see 1996 even being close regardless, but very much not with Dan Quayle.

1996 is four election cycles of Republican victory, with the country already turned on the GOP in 1988 (again, Atwater) and the country turned further against the GOP in 1992. 1996 is 16 years, and the country will be ready for a change. I can't see that election being close.

Clinton would have lost 1992. I don't see him winning the nomination in 1996. You'd have all those Democrats who did not run in 1992 because they had the intent to run in 1996 and assumed Bush would win 1992 go on to run for the nomination in 1996. You'd also have young blood come into play. Clinton would be old hat. He could try, but I doubt he'd land the nomination, and a presidential nominee is never a VP. And he was a dark horse. I don't even know if "Democrat President '96" would appoint him as Secretary of something.
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I could actually see Gore making a good run for it, especially if he didn't attach himself to Clinton in 92. A Gore Presidency from '96-04 would certainly be an interesting timeline to run in and of itself.
 

Shadowlord

A possible list:

George H.W. Bush: 1989-1997
Ann Richards: 1997-2005 (Cuomo was the frontrunner, but Richards manages to upset him in the primaries)
John McCain: 2005-2009
John F. Kennedy Jr.: 2009-Present (Butterflies prevent his plane crash)
 
RogueBeaver

RogueBeaver

No Republican Revolution, though I think they still retake Congress eventually. Cuomo, Gore, Gephardt, Bradley for the Dems. Alexander, Wilson, Gramm, Quayle, McCain, Campbell could all run for the GOP, though some may sit it out and wait for 2000. Bush said he wanted to pivot to domestic policy, but he'll still be squeezed between the Dem majority and his own restless base. Perhaps he makes some token efforts and returns to FP.
 

JVM

Economic bounce back and strong foreign policy initially favor the Republicans going into the election, but it winds backward significantly as the general election time passes. Think Dems in '88.

The 1996 Republican nomination is a bitter battle between Dole, representing the 'heir apparent' and moderate wing, and Dan Quayle, representing the social conservatives. Quayle's had four years to prepare himself to learn how to control what comes out of his mouth and manages to very narrowly become the Republican nominee, picking a moderate running mate. Social issues are the name of the game. Quayle carefully tries to play both sides with his predecessor, while Dole announces his retirement after his senate term expires.

The Democratic nomination is between Al Gore, as a representative of the moderate southerners and an 'heir apparent' and Mario Cuomo, as the liberal northerner from New York.... and maybe Jerry Brown, representing the Jerry Brown wing. Gore starts out strong but Cuomo triumphs quickly and recovers early stumbles, and Gore pulls out, allowing Cuomo to focus on Brown. In no time, we have Cuomo nominated with a moderate southern running mate. Cuomo focuses on issues like crime and the poor in primaries, but moderates his image for the general election. Gore remains in the Senate.

The conventions favor the Democrats, who get a decent bounce from Cuomo's much-praised speech talking about his Italian immigrant roots, while Quayle is forgotten, with a speech compared unfavorably to the "culture wars" speech at points. Dole's retirement speech steals the show instead. Cuomo also wins the debates, because no matter how much training he goes through, no matter how competent he can become, Dan Quayle is Dan fucking Quayle.

On January 20th, 1997, Mario Cuomo is sworn in as 42nd President of the United States...
 
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