WI: Bush Killed '07?

I just watched the mockumentary Death of a President ($3 on Youtube) and it posits an interesting question; What if Bush was killed in '07 in Chicago? In the film President Cheney uses it to expand the PATRIOT Act and attack Syria (since the man arrested for the killing was Syrian). However what would have actually happened?
 
Assad was under pressure for his support of AQI at the time. A Syrian national kills Bush its going to mean a heavy bombing campaign on Assad who was getting NK help for his WMD program at the time. If the assassin has links back to the regime and the US will topple Assad.

By October 2007 Iraq has been by in large rapped up and we had an large Iraqi and Sunni paramilitary army behind us and Maliki hated Assad as did the vast majority of Iraqis for being AQI at this point the Islamic State of Iraq's supply lines into Iraq.
 
How shitty place Middle East is if USA succesfully invades Syria and has so terrible occupation politics as in Iraq?
 
President Cheney (shudder) finishes out the remaining part of Bush's term, the economy tanks regardless, and the Democratic nominee wins in '08 - butterflies could give it to either Obama or Hillary. If Cheney decides to run for a term of his own, the race would be a little bit tighter, but I doubt the incumbency and sympathy advantages combined could overcome Cheney's own unpopularity and the bad economy.
 
President Cheney (shudder) finishes out the remaining part of Bush's term, the economy tanks regardless, and the Democratic nominee wins in '08 - butterflies could give it to either Obama or Hillary. If Cheney decides to run for a term of his own, the race would be a little bit tighter, but I doubt the incumbency and sympathy advantages combined could overcome Cheney's own unpopularity and the bad economy.

The butterflies could delay the credit crisis as the 2008 oil speculative super spike to 147 slowed the economy enough for the malfeasance of some investment houses and banks to come out right in time for the election.

How shitty place Middle East is if USA succesfully invades Syria and has so terrible occupation politics as in Iraq?

It's late 2007 we know what we are doing at that point. In 2003 there was heavy confusion over who would do what with the actual plan Bush signed onto called for the Iraqi Army to police their country and then Bremer disbands the Army and says Iraq must be treated like Germany or Japan post war. The US military didn't know how to wage the war of the flea in 2003, we did by 2007.

Either way it probably doesn't lead to an regime change mission, but certainly a heavy bombing of the state and perhaps ground ops into Eastern Syria to go after Islamic State of Iraq training camps.
 
Last edited:

Puzzle

Donor
butterflies could give it to either Obama or Hillary
I tend to think if the US was once again engaged in a high intensity shooting war Obama would lose out. He was already fairly inexperienced, and it seems likely voters would want a steadier hand on the tiller.
 
Top