WI: Bush Jr doesn't run in 2000, but Jeb Bush runs in 2004?

Zioneer

Banned
As the title says; what if George W Bush doesn't run in 2000 (McCain gets the nomination instead, presumably), and for whatever reason, Jeb Bush runs in 2004?

How will national politics be changed by George Jr's refusal to run in 2000, how could events be arranged to get Jeb as a serious contender in an alt-2004, and how will other issues be different (whether McCain or Gore wins in 2000)?

For that matter, what kind of campaign could Jeb be likely to run?
 
As the title says; what if George W Bush doesn't run in 2000 (McCain gets the nomination instead, presumably), and for whatever reason, Jeb Bush runs in 2004?

How will national politics be changed by George Jr's refusal to run in 2000, how could events be arranged to get Jeb as a serious contender in an alt-2004, and how will other issues be different (whether McCain or Gore wins in 2000)?

For that matter, what kind of campaign could Jeb be likely to run?
i am assuming Gore wins in 2000?
 
You have two PODs. (Also, this thread for 2000)

First is that George W. Bush gets to be High Lord of Baseball or whatever it is that he wanted (last game I watched was the Blue Jays losing at the Skydome in '93) and doesn't bother to get elected Governor of Texas.

Other POD is that Jeb Bush wins in '94 and then runs in 2000 as George Bush Sr. expected. (Spoiler: Jeb smashes Gore, he is/was a much better & smarter politician than Bush Jr, if no less conservative.)

In the first scenario it is probable that Jeb decides to wait for 2004, but then he's up against either President Gore (possibly with 9/11 winds at his back) or a primary challenge to a Republican President. Iffy on the first, essentially impossible on the second.

Furthermore it is incredibly unlikely that McCain wins in 2000. He almost beat Bush because Bush is not very good (Rove and team aside). If George Bush doesn't run in 2000 then some other candidate wins, as without Bush sucking up the money post-'96 a random establishment Republican beats McCain in all probability.


As for Jeb Bush himself? You can go look up S.V. Date's alternate history in WashPo for some ideas.
 
If Jeb wins in '94, and runs in 2000, then he wins.

If Jeb doesn't run, than it's likely another establishment Republican like Frank Keating, John Engler, or Fred Thompson runs and wins.
 
If Jeb wins in '94, and runs in 2000, then he wins.

If Jeb doesn't run, than it's likely another establishment Republican like Frank Keating, John Engler, or Fred Thompson runs and wins.

Gore would have won, Bush ran particularly well among certain Democratic groups because of his compassionate conservatism. No other GOP candidate would have had Rove and the Bush policies.
 
Point of fact there is no Bush Jr. George HW Bush is the Father and President # 41, George W. Bush the oldest son is President #43. He is not a junior.
 
I'm presuming Gore would win. Gore goes outright crazy against Bin Laden as Richard Clarke recommended. There is no 9/11. While Gore's green policies are prevented from taking place by Congress, people are pretty happy with Gore. The Clinton-era deficit dip is not as steep as predicted due to a moderate recession but, we're still on the path to solvency.

The insane Fox News/Limbaugh sector makes headway in Congress, but they mostly peter out. Without a major attack on US soil, no one cares much.

Jeb runs. Many people are excited, but most conservatives are content. Many do not show up at the polls and the hardcore Gore supporters carry the election in the lowest turnout vote ever.
 
One question is whether Jeb is a credible candidate without those Democrats determined to target Jeb Bush for being Dubya's brother, Janet Reno deciding she wanted to be the Democratic candidate for governor in Florida for no good reason she ever came up with and the Clintons deciding to support Reno over a much better candidate whose campaign and support were already set up.
 
if GWB does not run in 2000. then people like Elizabeth Dole, Lamar Alexander and Dan Quayle enter and become the major contenders. Steve Forbes also does better. Pat Buchanan probably makes a run as well.


People talking about Mccain are forgetting that GWB basically locked down all the establishment support and money as early as 1998. by freezing out other establishment conservatives Bush inadvertently allowed "maverick" Mccain to become the default anti Bush.


who wins the GOP nomination in that climate ? Im thinking Elizabeth Dole. She was considered a GOP star in the late 90's


Dole vs Gore ? I dont know who wins that. but Gore will have to win for Jeb to run in 2004.

Jeb v Gore ?
 
Top