WI: Bush II didn't run for President in 2000

What if Bush II decided to stay governor of Texas instead of running for President? Who would run in the primaries? Who would get nominated? Who'd win the general election? How would Bush II's governorship be seen?
 
McCain wins the GOP nomination and beats Gore in both the popular vote and electoral vote.
 
I disagree that McCain would inevitably be the nominee. The only reason we didn't have more people running that year was because Bush shock and awed with his fundraising. It scared everyone off. Without him in the race, it opens up the field for other candidates like John Engler, Lamar Alexander, maybe Jack Kemp, and who knows who else. It opens up a whole can of worms.
 
In fact, looking back at, there was a metric ton of very popular Republican Governors wrapping up their second term around this time such as Jim Edgar, Bill Weld, John Engler, Tommy Thompson, etc. A lot of them would be pretty tempted to jump in thinking they were the most electable against Al Bore. We might have a very similar sized field to 2016. What W did in swamping all possible opponents with cash is almost exactly what Jeb tried to do with announcing he'll be pulling in $100 million and unveiling all these bundlers. It didn't work because Jeb was infinitely weaker and in a weaker position.
 
I disagree that McCain would inevitably be the nominee. The only reason we didn't have more people running that year was because Bush shock and awed with his fundraising. It scared everyone off. Without him in the race, it opens up the field for other candidates like John Engler, Lamar Alexander, maybe Jack Kemp, and who knows who else. It opens up a whole can of worms.

Yes, I once did a TL where Lamar Alexander won, link
 
The basic problem with McCain becoming Republican nominee in 2000 *with Bush in the race* is that McCain was relying too much on Independents and crossover Democrats. They can be useful, but only as supplements to Republican voters. You can't win the Republican primaries without Republicans!

Without Bush, the GOP Establishment in 2000 does not have a strong obvious candidate of its own--Liddy Dole does not look like a very strong candidate to me. Lamar Alexander is unlikely to do much better than he did in 1996. Governors like Engler might seem plausible on paper--but so did Tim Pawlenty in 2011 and Scott Walker in 2015... So Republicans might be more willing to vote for McCain, especially since, compared to OTL, he is likely to put more emphasis on the many issues on which he was a conventional conservative Republican rather than the few (like campaign finance) on which he wasn't.
 
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