If Bush was killed on 9/11 and the CIA reported Bin Laden was in Pakistan, all bets would be off. We'd most likely bomb everything in the Middle East, paying no heed to civilian casualties or collateral. All that would matter is vengeance. By the end of the campaign, much of the Middle East would be set ablaze, as the United States occupies the entire region to "stabilize" it, but in reality, intends to annex it and seize the oil.
Quite a few nations, chief among them Russia, would be pissed, but most of the world would come to understand that we had no choice. It was either salt the Middle East, or fight a long war of attrition against terrorists, which could lead to something worse (ie ISIS).
Iraq, Iran, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are occupied by the US. After five years of occupation, the United States releases Iraqi land to Kuwaiti control, Syria to Israeli control, and annexes Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Pakistan, and Afghanistan as members of the Union, known as the Middle Eastern States.
The long-term political consequences include increased tensions with Russia, some embargoes from China that are eventually lifted when the US embargoes the export of food and oil, and long-term unrest in the Middle East against the United States.