WI: Bush asks them to read his lips

What if Bush 41 refuses to raise taxes in the 1990 fiscal year? In the short term, would he have prevailed, or had to fold later? Would there have been a shutdown? I'm also trying to think long term, and wondering if Americans for Tax Freedom and other things get butterflied.


...sorry if someone has asked this before, I've only done a brief AH Google search that came up dry.
 
In the short term, would he have prevailed, or had to fold later?

He would have had to fold for certain. However, if he doesn't, Bush will have to cut down spending. If he cuts down on defence spending, expect very pissed hawks. It he cuts down social spending, expect an impasse in the Democratic Congress. There's no way he does neither, as he was a fiscally responsible conservative, not one of those spendy types, so at the end of the day, I'd say he'd increase taxes. Expect it to be temporarily become a non-issue thanks to the Gulf War, but the economy will be in a worse state, so maybe a big name like Mario Cuomo throws his hat in the 1992 election. The Democrat likely wins due to the recession.

Would there have been a shutdown?

There would not have been a shutdown, as Foley isn't a Gingrich or Boehner type. Furthermore, bipartisanship was still a big thing, so if there would have been a shutdown, expect it to be minor.
 
There would not have been a shutdown, as Foley isn't a Gingrich or Boehner type. Furthermore, bipartisanship was still a big thing, so if there would have been a shutdown, expect it to be minor.

I always forget that Tip retired by this point.
 
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