WI: Burgundy lasts into the Modern Age

I know this has been hashed out, but I don't want to really spend too much time on the PoD itself, but more it's consequences---particularly, the long-term political consequences of a united Middle Kingdom of 'Burgundia' or some similar moniker.

The PoD has to be such that Charles the Bold is granted a king-level title by the Pope with the Emperor's consent (this was in the works---if only Charles had given back Alsace, he might have gotten his crown), such that the marrying-off of a female heir would not spell dissolution for the mish-mash of titles that was the Duchy of Burgundy at the height of its power in the 1470s.

Once the crown and succession are secured, Charles patches relations hastily with the Emperor, perhaps even formally swearing fealty (but still remaining mostly independent), which would probably touch off a war between France and an Imperial coalition, led by Charles. France is defeated and the French claim to Burgundy is rescinded, allowing Charles (and his heirs) the necessary time to consolidate and centralize the ethnically, culturally, and eventually religiously very diverse lands of the new Kingdom of Burgundy/-ia.

Immediate consequences:

-France is weakened, possibly forced to pay reparations; this affects the future of French ambitions on the continent, as the Lowlands are no longer a ripe and juicy target for expansion (possibilities include a quicker integration of Brittany, successful conquest of Naples by Charles VIII, stronger/more successful invasion of Italy, France goes colonial sooner, resists Reformation due to Burgundy serving as buffer/sponge to soak up Protestant influence

-Burgundian-Habsburg relations are initially positive, though quickly sour as it becomes clear that the heirs of Charles share not only his ambition but his sour attitude toward Habsburg hegemony. A number of wars are fought between Burgundy and various Imperial coalitions, both offensive and defensive, over Burgundian expansion in Northern Europe. Burgundy being as wealthy as she was, and only getting wealthier, employs increasing numbers of mercenaries, repels every coalition army, and thus becomes exceedingly proficient at defensive warfare. However, Burgundy's territorial gains in the Germanies are limited and temporary at best.

-The near-constant exposure of Burgundian nobility to mercenary captains on the battlefield leads to greater army integration and forms the foundation for a modern standing army.


The Future:

Here's where it starts to get shaky. I have some ideas, but I'd like some feedback and to get a discussion going, because for some reason this is a burning issue for me. Here's what I think might happen:

-Burgundy goes Lutheran during the Reformation due to increased assimilation of the Lowlands as well as heightened relations with the North German states. Calvinism does not take hold. Relations between the Protestant north and the Catholic south are assuaged when the King himself converts.

-Charles V still inherits Spain from his mother, but never fights the long and costly wars with France that drained his empire to the point of exhaustion, and thus is able to halt Ottoman expansion. Spain and Austria still split between branches of the Habsburg family, but ties remain close. Spain becomes an even greater power due to not having been drained in war after war with France.

-Burgundy goes to bat for the League of Schmalkalden, likely taking a leadership role, as Burgundy has her own political interests to consider within the Empire and beyond. Burgundy likely has had to fend off a number of French invasions, but again, due to their economic advantage is able to weather these wars better than Austria under Charles V did in the early-mid 16th century.


What else can you guys think of? What am I missing? Certainly quite a bit, and I want to explore this and expand on it as I'm able.
 
Personally I can't really imagine France just losing one war then saying, "Right, that's it, we won't contest Burgundy ever again". The experience during the Hundred Years' War must have made some impression on French monarchs on just how vulnerable the country is to invasion; Burgundy is a necessary part of any attempt to bolster France's borders.
 
Personally I can't really imagine France just losing one war then saying, "Right, that's it, we won't contest Burgundy ever again". The experience during the Hundred Years' War must have made some impression on French monarchs on just how vulnerable the country is to invasion; Burgundy is a necessary part of any attempt to bolster France's borders.


See:

Burgundy likely has had to fend off a number of French invasions, but again, due to their economic advantage is able to weather these wars better than Austria under Charles V did in the early-mid 16th century.

I've accounted for this. Burgundy never lost to France under Charles, but rather to the Swiss. Charles' army was structured around fighting the French. I don't think he or his heirs would have lost to France [much].
 
Yes, but you also have Burgundy fighting Imperial coalitions and I would expect that's the time, more than anything else, for France to strike. You can't tick off both bullies in the region.

It seems very unlikely that Burgundy can carve out a 'middle ground' between the HRE and France if it antagonizes both. More likely survival means sticking to one side, which in this case would probably be a political alignment with the HRE, while also maintaining marital links with France... which will be problematic if we also accept the idea that Burgundy turns Protestant.

The identity of 'Burgundy' will be massively important as time goes on - the rulers will have to decide whether they are 'French' or 'Lowlander'... although I guess an alternative could also be a Habsburg-like identity where being a Burgundian simply means that you are a subject of the Valois, which will pose problems in the 19th Century just like Austria OTL.

To be honest, I can't imagine Burgundian monarchs abandoning French heritage, especially if they marry into France to protect themselves - which means that their Dutch holdings are still probably going to revolt at some point.

As for France, French forays into Italy will still bring them into conflict with the Habsburgs, and so Spain's power will still be drained that way. Only this time it's not Spain running amok in France, but France running amok in Catalonia, so arguably an independent Burgundy would be even worse for Spain.
 
The PoD has to be such that Charles the Bold is granted a king-level title by the Pope with the Emperor's consent (this was in the works---if only Charles had given back Alsace, he might have gotten his crown), such that the marrying-off of a female heir would not spell dissolution for the mish-mash of titles that was the Duchy of Burgundy at the height of its power in the 1470s.
Small correction: Charles was in negotiations with the Emperor for a crown, and it would have been the Emperor who crowned him.

While Charles' stubborn insistence on keeping the Habsburg Vorlande was indeed a point of contention, I'd say it's arguable that it was the sole cause of the negotiations breaking down. Indeed, the negotiations were actually successful, and Charles was about to be crowned until the Emperor decided to call it off for various reasons, such as Charles' aggressive personality.

A crown wouldn't have done a thing to save Burgundy. Burgundy's downfall was caused by Charles being overly ambitious, and a simple king's crown would not have been the end of those ambitions. Marrying off Mary to Maximilian von Habsburg was also a central demand from the Emperor in all negotiations for the crown, so save a miracle where Charles actually spends enough time with his wife to sire a legitimate son, the "Kingdom of Burgundy" would still eventually fall into Habsburg hands.

Once the crown and succession are secured, Charles patches relations hastily with the Emperor, perhaps even formally swearing fealty (but still remaining mostly independent), which would probably touch off a war between France and an Imperial coalition, led by Charles. France is defeated and the French claim to Burgundy is rescinded, allowing Charles (and his heirs) the necessary time to consolidate and centralize the ethnically, culturally, and eventually religiously very diverse lands of the new Kingdom of Burgundy/-ia.
How would Charles secure his succession just from gaining a king's crown? From what I have read, the man was not overly fond of spending time with his wife, or women in general for that matter. Even if he did end up trying to sire a son, there's no way to say for sure that he would succeed.

Being on good terms with the Emperor would be entirely necessary to be crowned to begin with. Swearing fealty to the Emperor is not something he would have a choice in if he wants to be king, considering it would be the Emperor who crowns him. Him being mostly independent as king would still hold true, however, since there was not much in the ways of Imperial authority at the time.

I also can't see France (honestly) rescinding any claims on French-Burgundian lands just from losing a few wars against a fragile Middle Kingdom. Louis XI wasn't called "the Cunning" and the "Universal Spider" for nothing. Charles' rapid rise to power and his aggressive personality was sure to win him enemies, and Louis XI knew how to take advantage of that.

-France is weakened, possibly forced to pay reparations; this affects the future of French ambitions on the continent, as the Lowlands are no longer a ripe and juicy target for expansion (possibilities include a quicker integration of Brittany, successful conquest of Naples by Charles VIII, stronger/more successful invasion of Italy, France goes colonial sooner, resists Reformation due to Burgundy serving as buffer/sponge to soak up Protestant influence
You must keep in mind that many of the Burgundian territories were part of the Kingdom of France, and had been for centuries. France would not just give up all claims to them, even if they lost a bunch of wars.

-Burgundian-Habsburg relations are initially positive, though quickly sour as it becomes clear that the heirs of Charles share not only his ambition but his sour attitude toward Habsburg hegemony. A number of wars are fought between Burgundy and various Imperial coalitions, both offensive and defensive, over Burgundian expansion in Northern Europe. Burgundy being as wealthy as she was, and only getting wealthier, employs increasing numbers of mercenaries, repels every coalition army, and thus becomes exceedingly proficient at defensive warfare. However, Burgundy's territorial gains in the Germanies are limited and temporary at best.
Again, what heirs? From what you have written, it seems like Charles is on the battlefield just as much or more than he was historically. A royal crown is not some magical tool of fertility, or something that would give Charles some solemn sense of duty to do his best to sire a male heir.

Even assuming he does have an heir, there's no way to say if they'll share their dad's aggressive personality. They might not even be half as competent as he was.

I should also note that Burgundy's wealth did not just magically appear from nowhere. The wealthy cities of the Low Countries provided a lot of it in the form of taxes. Taxes do not make you popular. The wealthy and powerful cities of Flanders and Brabant could and did revolt fairly frequently against Burgundian authority, and a royal crown wouldn't change a thing.

-The near-constant exposure of Burgundian nobility to mercenary captains on the battlefield leads to greater army integration and forms the foundation for a modern standing army.
Bit early for that. Assuming, against all odds, a militaristic Kingdom of Burgundy is able to survive the trials of time, I could see them doing so eventually though.

-Burgundy goes Lutheran during the Reformation due to increased assimilation of the Lowlands as well as heightened relations with the North German states. Calvinism does not take hold. Relations between the Protestant north and the Catholic south are assuaged when the King himself converts.
The king would be in an incredibly tricky situation here, as no matter what he does he risks losing big chunks of his kingdom. He doesn't have a large Spanish army or armada to back up his policies, and the source of his wealth is not New World gold, but cities and territories that might be opposed to him and his religious ideas. I think it's quite likely that Burgundy would be paralysed as a result, and possibly preyed upon in its weakened state by neighbouring France.

-Charles V still inherits Spain from his mother, but never fights the long and costly wars with France that drained his empire to the point of exhaustion, and thus is able to halt Ottoman expansion. Spain and Austria still split between branches of the Habsburg family, but ties remain close. Spain becomes an even greater power due to not having been drained in war after war with France.
I am not sure why you assume Charles V would still be born in this scenario, or why you assume the Habsburgs would still gain Spain. The latter is not impossible, granted, but I do think the likelihood is reduced in a scenario in which the Habsburgs don't gain Burgundy.

Burgundy likely has had to fend off a number of French invasions, but again, due to their economic advantage is able to weather these wars better than Austria under Charles V did in the early-mid 16th century.
I sincerely doubt that. If Burgundy has to fight a number of French invasions while also dealing with internal religious turmoil and other internal and external enemies, it's almost definitely going to collapse under the pressure, unless they have powerful allies to lean on. (Burgundy generally didn't)
 
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I would imagine this Kingdom of Burgundy would most likely try to claim itself as a successor to Lotharingia and therefore a true middle kingdom between West Francia (France) and East Francia (HRE). Also if such a claim was made then that would mean Burgundy would be making claims on Italy too which would cause a whole lot of problems for it in regards to its neighbors.
 
Simple havethe Duke of Burgundy inherit the throne of France. Burgundy become France and it survive to modern time. Realisticaly Burgundy is a threat to both the King of France and the HRE emperor.
I can't see it survive such pressure for long.
 
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