WI Bulgaria wins second Balkan war(1913) ?

Could they? What would this do to WW1? How would Russia look after the war?

You mean, what happens if Bulgaria defeats the combined forces of Serbia, Rumania, Greece, and the Ottoman Empire? Probably they would conquer the entire Balkans and Middle East since for this to happen alien space bats would have had to have eaten the entire non-Bulgarian population of the region.
 
You mean, what happens if Bulgaria defeats the combined forces of Serbia, Rumania, Greece, and the Ottoman Empire? Probably they would conquer the entire Balkans and Middle East since for this to happen alien space bats would have had to have eaten the entire non-Bulgarian population of the region.

Bulgaria is only likely to win if they have outside intervention in their favour, which of course would mean a general war in at least Eastern Europe and a French Front somewhere if Germany thinks it needs to get involved obviously.

A-H intervenes to save Bulgaria and Russia consequently intervenes to to save Serbia in that case. Now whether it stops there really depends on Kaiser Bill, if he has to intervene to save the Austro-Hungarians from their foolish gambit to save Bulgaria in the first place.

and so you probably have WWI earlier but with a different orientation perhaps.

If Germany and A-H are at war with
Russia over Balkan and Ottoman influence

the position of Britain and Italy would be interesting. Italy probably won't intervene until the British position is established. If Britain is neutral then Italy may still be convinced by France and Russia to enter.

the Ottoman's are on the Allied side and the relationship between France and Britain is good so would there be a reason for them to enter either way?
The straits would be open so Russia is probably supplied with what it needs this would probably still lead to a CP defeat and a less destructive WWI. The US and Britain if neutral would probably both favour the Entente powers.

Probably no immediate breakup of the CP empires though as defeat would probably come quicker, or a negotiated settlement after the futility of the fireworks becomes apparent for all to see. So in retrospect..I take it back..definitely ASB. Bulgaria probably cannot even win with outside intervention. Unless of course if its a peace of exhaustion with large swaths of Russian terr. still occupied and France and Italy making little headway against Germany or A-H. then you might get a negotiated settlement with Bulgaria at the what? San Stefano borders and the Enos-Midia line? Somewhere the straits would have to be closed to choke the supply of war materials to Russia and I don't think thats possible here unless Britain were to find a reason to intervene on the CP side and accomplish a successful Gallipolli analogue. Highly unlikely though not impossible. The Balkans and Eastern Europe are devastated and trench warfare has still taken its toll along the Italo/Austrian border and the Franco/German.
 
This is all reasonable, but it's not the 2nd Balkan War. ;)

The Ottomans are on whatever side they need to be to get Edirne back, so that would be the Russian side - they would probably even get Western Thrace back in this case (which still has a Muslim majority).

The WWI lineup, but with the Ottomans on the Entente side would probably not be a long war - maybe two years. Besides the entire Ottoman army, which will be used in Europe instead for for self-defense as in OTL, Russia is a lot stronger with the Straits open.

The Hapsburgs are going to be in serious trouble with a major front to the South.

Bulgaria is only likely to win if they have outside intervention in their favour, which of course would mean a general war in at least Eastern Europe and a French Front somewhere if Germany thinks it needs to get involved obviously.

A-H intervenes to save Bulgaria and Russia consequently intervenes to to save Serbia in that case. Now whether it stops there really depends on Kaiser Bill, if he has to intervene to save the Austro-Hungarians from their foolish gambit to save Bulgaria in the first place.

and so you probably have WWI earlier but with a different orientation perhaps.

If Germany and A-H are at war with
Russia over Balkan and Ottoman influence

the position of Britain and Italy would be interesting. Italy probably won't intervene until the British position is established. If Britain is neutral then Italy may still be convinced by France and Russia to enter.

the Ottoman's are on the Allied side and the relationship between France and Britain is good so would there be a reason for them to enter either way?
The straits would be open so Russia is probably supplied with what it needs this would probably still lead to a CP defeat and a less destructive WWI. The US and Britain if neutral would probably both favour the Entente powers.

Probably no immediate breakup of the CP empires though as defeat would probably come quicker, or a negotiated settlement after the futility of the fireworks becomes apparent for all to see. So in retrospect..I take it back..definitely ASB. Bulgaria probably cannot even win with outside intervention. Unless of course if its a peace of exhaustion with large swaths of Russian terr. still occupied and France and Italy making little headway against Germany or A-H. then you might get a negotiated settlement with Bulgaria at the what? San Stefano borders and the Enos-Midia line? Somewhere the straits would have to be closed to choke the supply of war materials to Russia and I don't think thats possible here unless Britain were to find a reason to intervene on the CP side and accomplish a successful Gallipolli analogue. Highly unlikely though not impossible. The Balkans and Eastern Europe are devastated and trench warfare has still taken its toll along the Italo/Austrian border and the Franco/German.
 
I think Bulgaria could have won if Romania and the Ottomans didn't intervene. Even in OTL, the Bulgarians were on the verge of capturing a significant part of the Greek army along with their King in the Kresna Gorge and had managed to stop the Serbian advances. If there was no intervention, Greece would probably have to agree to a truce and then the Bulgarian army could be redirected against the Serbs.
The problem is how to prevent Romanian and Ottoman intervention.
 
I think you're right. If you can somehow enervate the coalition arrayed against Bulgaria, I think the country will have a very good chance of holding its own until Ferdinand convinces Russia to intervene. It was still the "Prussia of the Balkans" during this period. And if you want, you can have a POD in 1908 where Ferdinand restrains himself and gets German (Krupp) armaments.
 
Top