WI: Bulgaria stays Neutral in WWII

This is possible if Italy doesn't attack Greece. Then Germany has no reason to force Bulgaria into the Tripartite pact and Bulgaria would probably remain neutral until the end of the war.
As for Bulgaria refusing to join the Axis, that's not very likely. Hitler had made it clear that his armies would pass through Bulgaria with or without the permission of the government, so with a choice between an alliance with Nazi Germany and the return of what was considered rightful Bulgarian territory or war with Germany for the sake of Greece - one of the worst enemies of Bulgaria at the time, it's not surprising that the government (or the King really) chose the first option.

I'm not very familiar with the perioid (or any other, really :p), but it astounds me that we could have possibly allied with a regime that based its whole ideology on the idea that Slavs (and, therefore, Bulgarians) were subhuman. I can't see us doing too well in a Nazi victory scenario.
 
I'm not very familiar with the perioid (or any other, really :p), but it astounds me that we could have possibly allied with a regime that based its whole ideology on the idea that Slavs (and, therefore, Bulgarians) were subhuman. I can't see us doing too well in a Nazi victory scenario.

afaik the nazi ideology considered the whole balkans to be worthless.

their manifest destiny calls for eastwards expansion.
 
I don't see Yugoslavia coveting any Bulgarian territory. Quite the oposite is true. Yugoslavian decision to abandon Tripartite pact would happen regardless of Bulgaria being neutral, Allied or Axis. Of all three options, Bulgarian membership in Axis put Yugoslavia in greatest peril, yet they exited the pact.

Bulgaria being neutral or even Allied would only encourage Yugoslavia to leave Axis, provided they signed the pact in the first place in such situation. On the other side Bulgaria had absolutely nothing to gain being Allied.

Shaby,

Well, not quite true, btw. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balkan_Pact

It was mostly founded on Bulgaria-retention rationale.

If Hitler "trades" within this Pact's framework, he could take hold on the Balkans without to be necessary to invest military and economically there.

Imagine a Pact between the Axis and the Balkan Pact.

Turkey remains formally neutral, but is promissed to get back the Near East if certain conditions get realized.

Romania, Yugoslavia and Greece are allowed / obliged to occupy / take control over Bulgaria. With each of them are agreed post-war territorial changes on expense of Bulgaria.

To Romania the Ruse-Razgrad-Shumen-Varna line.
To Greece - more of Upper Thrace and the southern half of the Bulgarian Blacksea coast.
To Jugoslavia - Western Bulgaria.

With the Balkan pact on Axis side, Hitler does not need Hungarian support and Hungary is stomped too.

Albania is split between Italy, Yugoslavia and Greece. Italy takes about 80% of Albania. The three sign no-territorial-claims agreement.

Bulgaria is stomped like OTL Poland by its Axis neighbours.

The Bulgarian government-in-excile in London formally joins the Allies after the country's neutrality is violated by the Balkan Pact intervention.

With all the Balkans either on Axis side or occupied by the Axis, Turkey is braver and in 1942-1943 de facto joins the Axis war efforts in Africa and Near East.

The Allies temporary loose the Eastern Mediterranean.

The war is couple of years longer and goes nuclear in Europe, too.

1941k.jpg


&

1947.jpg


As in OTL geopolitical situation USSR is contained from easy access to the world Ocean.

ITTL Cold War "capitalist" ( and NATO ) countries are: Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey - those who have access to the important seas
&
Warsaw Pact ones ( sacrificed by the Allies to the Big Red Monster ) are:
Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Kurdistan - all Landlocked ones.

Similary to OTL Finland and Austria - Tsardom of Bulgaria remains neutral during the Cold War. No civil war, because the Great Powers do not have interest to intefere and to change the status quo.

In 1995 joins the EU.

In 2012 is still a monarchy because until 1955 is headed by a Regency Council due to the fact that Simeon the Secong is minor in age and there are less incentives to depose a kid from the throne.
 
Shaby,

Well, not quite true, btw. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balkan_Pact

It was mostly founded on Bulgaria-retention rationale.

If Hitler "trades" within this Pact's framework, he could take hold on the Balkans without to be necessary to invest military and economically there.

Imagine a Pact between the Axis and the Balkan Pact.

Turkey remains formally neutral, but is promissed to get back the Near East if certain conditions get realized.

Romania, Yugoslavia and Greece are allowed / obliged to occupy / take control over Bulgaria. With each of them are agreed post-war territorial changes on expense of Bulgaria.

To Romania the Ruse-Razgrad-Shumen-Varna line.
To Greece - more of Upper Thrace and the southern half of the Bulgarian Blacksea coast.
To Jugoslavia - Western Bulgaria.

With the Balkan pact on Axis side, Hitler does not need Hungarian support and Hungary is stomped too.

Albania is split between Italy, Yugoslavia and Greece. Italy takes about 80% of Albania. The three sign no-territorial-claims agreement.

Bulgaria is stomped like OTL Poland by its Axis neighbours.

The Bulgarian government-in-excile in London formally joins the Allies after the country's neutrality is violated by the Balkan Pact intervention.

With all the Balkans either on Axis side or occupied by the Axis, Turkey is braver and in 1942-1943 de facto joins the Axis war efforts in Africa and Near East.

The Allies temporary loose the Eastern Mediterranean.

The war is couple of years longer and goes nuclear in Europe, too.

1941k.jpg


&

1947.jpg


As in OTL geopolitical situation USSR is contained from easy access to the world Ocean.

ITTL Cold War "capitalist" ( and NATO ) countries are: Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey - those who have access to the important seas
&
Warsaw Pact ones ( sacrificed by the Allies to the Big Red Monster ) are:
Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Kurdistan - all Landlocked ones.

Similary to OTL Finland and Austria - Tsardom of Bulgaria remains neutral during the Cold War. No civil war, because the Great Powers do not have interest to intefere and to change the status quo.

In 1995 joins the EU.

In 2012 is still a monarchy because until 1955 is headed by a Regency Council due to the fact that Simeon the Secong is minor in age and there are less incentives to depose a kid from the throne.

only that Greece was never going to align with the Axis. There's an everlasting doctrine about Greece's alignment, and that is that Greece should always stay on the side of the Naval Forces, or at least do not be a pain in the ass for them. Nobody, despite all the changes of regimes and government, has challenged this doctrine. Even during the WW I, Constantine, who was clearly pro-German, was onvinced that the best Greece should do is to remain neutral. Geography is a bitch, and she says that a country woth the position and the physical composition of Greece is simply defenseless against those powers who control the seas. If Greece was to align with the axis, in a week or so, all her naval infrastructure woul be ruined, her merchant fleet sank, her little industrial infrastructure destroyed, and all her big urban centres bombarded, not to mention that she would be cut off her islands and the essential grain-routes...

and there's also the Italian factor. There had been developments on the Italian behalf concerning Greece and Yugoslavia. That means that either Italy would not accept those two countries to split the Balkans, or that those two countries wouldn't accept to come under an alliance whose second primal member wanted parts off them. So they proven their determination, having in mind that a demonstration of determination is useful both in victory and defeat, and they were proven right...
 
There's an everlasting doctrine about Greece's alignment, and that is that Greece should always stay on the side of the Naval Forces, or at least do not be a pain in the ass for them. ... Geography is a bitch, and she says that a country woth the position and the physical composition of Greece is simply defenseless against those powers who control the seas. If Greece was to align with the axis, in a week or so, all her naval infrastructure woul be ruined, her merchant fleet sank, her little industrial infrastructure destroyed, and all her big urban centres bombarded, not to mention that she would be cut off her islands and the essential grain-routes...

Yeah, but which is worse - the powers who control the seas or overwhelming land power ( in this case Greece would remain with NO alies on the Balkans, surrounded by hostile countries ). The short-term policy is dictated by the imminent / immediate events. Otherwise as in OTL Greece would be teared apart by the neighbours.

and there's also the Italian factor.

So? Example: OTL Axis Romania - it gave up peacefully Southern Doburdja back to Bulgaria and Transilvania to Hungary but has been compensated 5-fold territorially in the North and East... ITTL Italy gets 80% of what it wants from the Balkans without to fire a bullet.
 
Yeah, but which is worse - the powers who control the seas or overwhelming land power ( in this case Greece would remain with NO alies on the Balkans, surrounded by hostile countries ). The short-term policy is dictated by the imminent / immediate events. Otherwise as in OTL Greece would be teared apart by the neighbours.



So? Example: OTL Axis Romania - it gave up peacefully Southern Doburdja back to Bulgaria and Transilvania to Hungary but has been compensated 5-fold territorially in the North and East... ITTL Italy gets 80% of what it wants from the Balkans without to fire a bullet.

OTL has proven that the Greek policy in 1940-41 was right, since long-term policy cannot be changed radically by short-term needs...
 
As has been pointed many times, Turkey has not the manpower, equipment or infrastructure to launch a decisive offensive into the Caucasus or the Middle East. Let alone deny the entire East Mediterranean to the Allies. And since Turkey knows this they are unlikely to do this. Especially in 1942/43, when Barbarossa has already occurred and joining the Axis leaves their entire eastern border threatened. And, as Andreas points out, Greece and Yugoslavia are unlikely to be welcomed into the alliance with open arms by Italy, not while Mussolini is still strutting about with dreams of a new Roman Empire.
 
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