WI Bulgaria sacks Constantinople in 1913

ben0628

Banned
What if sometime during the later stages of the 1st Balkan War, Bulgarian troops break through Ottoman defenses in southeastern Thrace and manage to conquer the city of Constantinople?

What would the immediate butterflies be? Would the great powers intervene and decide to divide up the entire Ottoman Empire? Could World War One start over this? Can Bulgaria keep Constantinople? If this butterflies away the 2nd Balkan War, can the Balkan Leaque survive, and even add additional members such as Romania or Albania?
 
Sack the greatest prize of the Eastern Orthodox faith? The former capital of the Eastern Roman Empire? No... the Bulgarians would never think to burn it to ash, though they will expel the Muslim population to keep it. And how does it butterfly the 2nd Balkan War? If anything, Bulgarian-controlled Constantinople would cause the Balkan League would fall apart even faster, particularly since Greece would want it for themselves.

EDIT: Oh ya, this thread might help answer your query.
 
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ben0628

Banned
Sack the greatest prize of the Eastern Orthodox faith? The former capital of the Eastern Roman Empire? No... the Bulgarians would never think to burn it to ash, though they will expel the Muslim population to keep it. And how does it butterfly the 2nd Balkan War? If anything, Bulgarian-controlled Constantinople would cause the Balkan League would fall apart even faster, particularly since Greece would want it for themselves.

EDIT: Oh ya, this thread might help answer your query.

If the Bulgarians can capture Constantinople, I can see the major Europeans powers intervening in Ottoman affairs entirely and subsequently bringing all Balkan League nations to the negotiating table and forcing the to come up with a diplomatic solution instead of Bulgaria deciding to take their chances fighting a second war against their former allies.
 
If the Bulgarians can capture Constantinople, I can see the major Europeans powers intervening in Ottoman affairs entirely and subsequently bringing all Balkan League nations to the negotiating table and forcing the to come up with a diplomatic solution instead of Bulgaria deciding to take their chances fighting a second war against their former allies.

That's possible. In general, keeping Bulgaria's attention focused on digesting Constantinople will make it less likely to try a violent resolution of disputes with its former allies. The dispute with Serbia may be resolved by Russian arbitration. However, Greece will be even more angry and suspicious at Bulgaria, and Romania will be just as eager to receive "compensation".

As for Russia's reaction, OTL provides a rough outline: Russia will land troops in Constantinople slightly before or slightly after the Bulgarian breakthrough, officially to keep order and protect the local population. This will, of course, be only one half of their intentions; the more important half will be to reduce Bulgaria's bargaining chips. In any case, it means joint Russian-Bulgarian occupation of the city.

Sazonov did not wish to directly seize Constantinople and the Straits because he believed such a radical act would immediately cause Austrian aggression against one or more of the Balkan states. Instead, it will push for an internationalized Constantinople, a demilitarized Dardanelles, and only minimal direct gains for Russia - an outpost in the upper Bosphorus.

The question is, how will Bulgaria react to all this? The Bulgarian leadership probably won't want to break with Russia, and will thus be inclined to go along with the above plans. But Tsar Ferdinand might not be very happy, so anything can happen. Russia can try to further sweeten the deal by offering to protect Bulgaria from Romanian demands; this should be enough to keep Bulgaria on board, but would sour Russia's relations with Romania for at least a few years.

The Balkan League may survive in some shape, but I don't think it's going to acquire new members, especially not right away. At this point there's no way to please everybody.

I don't think Constantinople will be sacked, nor will its Muslim population have to leave.
 
I'll repeat what I said in the earlier thread: the city would be very vulnerable to an Ottoman counterattack due to its location.
Now for what would happen after that, it's difficult to determine what would be more likely. In the best case scenario for Bulgaria Russia intervenes in the way described by Halagaz, followed likely by the rest of the Great Powers intervening to force a peace treaty between the Ottoman Empire and the Balkan league with Constantinople became an international city, Bulgaria receiving everything in Ottoman Thrace except the environs of Constantinople and Galipoli or at least the Midia-Enos line. This might even avoid the Second Balkan War, as it would move Bulgarian and Greek attention away from each other and towards Constantinople. In the worst case scenario, the Russians would invade Bulgaria (likely with the assistance of Romania) as they had threatened to do in such a case, the Ottomans would refuse to give up and would attack the vulnerable Bulgarian positions on the Bosphorus by land and sea and would incite an uprising in the city against the Bulgarian occupiers and Greece would a sign a separate peace with the Ottomans and join the war against Bulgaria. The worst case scenario or something close to it seems more likely.



Sack the greatest prize of the Eastern Orthodox faith? The former capital of the Eastern Roman Empire? No... the Bulgarians would never think to burn it to ash, though they will expel the Muslim population to keep it.
Such a thing would certainly not happen. Organized expulsion of Muslims had not been undertaken by the Bulgarian army during the Balkan war, so no reason to start now, plus the Bulgarian army was not at all enthusiastic about retaining Constantinople. There are also the enormous logistical difficulties of doing so.

The question is, how will Bulgaria react to all this? The Bulgarian leadership probably won't want to break with Russia, and will thus be inclined to go along with the above plans. But Tsar Ferdinand might not be very happy, so anything can happen. Russia can try to further sweeten the deal by offering to protect Bulgaria from Romanian demands; this should be enough to keep Bulgaria on board, but would sour Russia's relations with Romania for at least a few years.
The best way to do so would be to force Serbia to fulfill its obligation with its treaty with Bulgaria, ie give up at least the undisputed territory in Macedonia. This would of course require Russia not to immediately attack Bulgaria as they had threatened to do.
 
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