WI, Bulgaria joins CP with Ottomans

[elkarlo]

Ok, I tried looking for this POD, and found nothing. Bulgaria joined the CP in Sept 1915, which meant offensive action against Serbia in Oct of 1915.
This may be ASB, as the Germans were autistic when it came to to diplomacy. But what if, with no big PODs, they were able to get the Bulgarians to join with the Ottomans, at roughly the same time?

I guess a POD would have to be, the AHs not blundering against the Serbs. Perhaps they only send one army against Serbia, and the rest go against the Russians? Which saves failed offensives against Serbia, and helps the AHs hold their own a bit more in the East.

The Germans knew what the Bulgarians wanted. They could easily offer them all of Serbia, and some economic aid. Plus, they got the Turks to give them the Maritsa areas anyways.
Anyways, Bulgaria's DoW comes in early Nov 1914. Which would after the harvest, which would make mobilization pretty easy for the to do.
The weather would not have supported an offensive into Serbia though. I am not sure about the weather for sure, but the Balkans lacked decent road networks to support offensives in general. That said, the Bulgarians would be ready by Dec, so only probing attacks, and areas where they could basically walk in would occur.

I would assume that Serbia would fall as soon as the weather would permit it in the spring of 1915. Perhaps by May Serbia would be knocked out. That would free up the AHs months earlier, which may deter Italy. If not, Italy faces more AHs than OTL, and does even worse.

Perhaps some Bulgarian assets are sent to Gallipoli in April, before the Germans get RR access to the Turks. I doubt this would change anything, save for some extra howitzer hits on the Entente BBs. Which would add a few dozen casualties, and not change much. Perhaps on the land camp, the extra artillery and manpower would hurt the landings a bit more?

I think, if they did join early they would help AH out a lot. As AH was basically going from crisis to crisis the entire war. The earlier entry of Bulgaria would allow the AHs a bit of respite before the Italians attack.

Also, with a belligerent Bulgaria earlier, mixed with the Serbs losing earlier, perhaps the Entente doesn't even bother with the Salonika front? Though that would prolly help the Entente out more, as it was a manpower sinkhole.

Thoughts please

 

[elkarlo]

Oh, and for the heavy forts in the Dardanelles, perhaps Bulgaria's proximity would allow for AH airships to bring in a steady, but slow supply of shells for the fort's heavy guns?

 

[Ariosto]

The problem is that Bulgaria was never all that enthusiastic about participating in the Great War, and their position I suppose could be best compared to that of Italy when it joined in the Second World War ("Get the most for the least at the Table"). Indeed from what I've read it seems as if Bulgaria under different conditions would have preferred to join the Entente, but that virtually every territorial concession offered to Bulgaria, whether for the purposes of neutrality or an actual alliance, was fiercely protested by Serbia or Greece.

Bulgaria joining at the same time as the Ottomans is never going to happen given the relationship between those two nations and Bulgaria's designs on Thrace, but it might be possible provided the situation is more clearly in favor of the Central Powers as the Winter of '14-'15 is winding down and, as you suggested, the Central Powers offer extensive terms to Bulgaria sooner.
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[Halagaz]

Right. It's not that Germany's diplomacy was or wasn't being autistic, it's that the Entente had a lot to offer, too, and opinions in Bulgaria were divided over the matter. The small grub of territory that the Ottomans ceded on Germany's request was insignificant when compared to the possibility of Edrine and most of Thrace (which could have been acquired by joining the Entente). Not to mention how Greece and Serbia had also agreed to cede some of the desired territory, and probably could have been persuaded to cede a little more with further haggling.

 

[elkarlo]

The problem is that Bulgaria was never all that enthusiastic about participating in the Great War, and their position I suppose could be best compared to that of Italy when it joined in the Second World War ("Get the most for the least at the Table"). Indeed from what I've read it seems as if Bulgaria under different conditions would have preferred to join the Entente, but that virtually every territorial concession offered to Bulgaria, whether for the purposes of neutrality or an actual alliance, was fiercely protested by Serbia or Greece.

Bulgaria joining at the same time as the Ottomans is never going to happen given the relationship between those two nations and Bulgaria's designs on Thrace, but it might be possible provided the situation is more clearly in favor of the Central Powers as the Winter of '14-'15 is winding down and, as you suggested, the Central Powers offer extensive terms to Bulgaria sooner.
​

True, but almost all the other entries into the war were by opportunists.
I think given a little less blundering by AH, and some diplomacy via Germany, they could secure Bulgaria. They didn't like Russia, and they hated Serbia. promise them the moon. Give them all of Serbia, or a huge chunk of it. Offer to develop a domestic munitions manufacturing system, and I think you'd have Bulgaria.

 

[TRH]

Right. It's not that Germany's diplomacy was or wasn't being autistic, it's that the Entente had a lot to offer, too, and opinions in Bulgaria were divided over the matter. The small grub of territory that the Ottomans ceded on Germany's request was insignificant when compared to the possibility of Edrine and most of Thrace (which could have been acquired by joining the Entente). Not to mention how Greece and Serbia had also agreed to cede some of the desired territory, and probably could have been persuaded to cede a little more with further haggling.

Really? I keep hearing that the Serbs agreed to cede diddly, and why would Greece agree to give the Bulgarians territory to join a side they themselves wouldn't join until the war was almost over?

 

[elkarlo]

Right. It's not that Germany's diplomacy was or wasn't being autistic, it's that the Entente had a lot to offer, too, and opinions in Bulgaria were divided over the matter. The small grub of territory that the Ottomans ceded on Germany's request was insignificant when compared to the possibility of Edrine and most of Thrace (which could have been acquired by joining the Entente). Not to mention how Greece and Serbia had also agreed to cede some of the desired territory, and probably could have been persuaded to cede a little more with further haggling.

Well Germany's WWI diplomacy was bunk. They really could have done so much more, in so many areas.
Anyhow, Greece and Serbia were dead opposed to the territories that Bulgaria really wanted. That coupled with AH not doing well anywhere. Give them no spectacular failures. Perhaps no route and losing Galacia? That would inspire a bit more confidence.

Anyhow, could we please talk about the WI. This isn't ASB, and I hate getting bogged down in nit picky details. I would like to discuss what the impact would be

 

[TRH]

Well Germany's WWI diplomacy was bunk. They really could have done so much more, in so many areas.
Anyhow, Greece and Serbia were dead opposed to the territories that Bulgaria really wanted. That coupled with AH not doing well anywhere. Give them no spectacular failures. Perhaps no route and losing Galacia? That would inspire a bit more confidence.

Anyhow, could we please talk about the WI. This isn't ASB, and I hate getting bogged down in nit picky details. I would like to discuss what the impact would be

Okay, from what I gather, the Bulgarian army will be quite a bit weaker than OTL, since they haven't had time to replace all their artillery lost in the last war. I think they'll still fail to deliver the real death blow to the Serbs that they went for historically, and significant formations will still escape southwards.

After that...Galipoli may be butterflied, which could mean a significant Entente intervention on the Macedonian front. The Bulgarians only had enough shells for two months at the start of the war IOTL, probably less here, so they may fold in this scenario. Or the Entente may go all in on the Western Front instead, in which case they're safe. Hard to say without more specifics.

 

[elkarlo]

Okay, from what I gather, the Bulgarian army will be quite a bit weaker than OTL, since they haven't had time to replace all their artillery lost in the last war. I think they'll still fail to deliver the real death blow to the Serbs that they went for historically, and significant formations will still escape southwards.

After that...Galipoli may be butterflied, which could mean a significant Entente intervention on the Macedonian front. The Bulgarians only had enough shells for two months at the start of the war IOTL, probably less here, so they may fold in this scenario. Or the Entente may go all in on the Western Front instead, in which case they're safe. Hard to say without more specifics.

They would be less recovered from the 2nd Balk war, yes. But, with Serbia basically tied down fighting AH, they didn't have much to spare against Bulgaria. I don't see that radically changing here either.

Good point on Gal, the Ent may not even bother with it. They may try the Baltic invasion that was being planned. It got nixed due to Gal. Not sure if they were 100% going to land in the Baltic, but they seemed to want to.

I think the 500 shells per gun was enough to beat Serbia, and there wouldn't be much different ITTL either. As Serbia wouldn't be able to attack, nor would France/UK, as they had nothing to spare manpower wise in late 14/early 15.
The Ottomans had some munitions production in Constantinople IRRC, they could prop up the Bulgarians until they could link up with the AHs.


With AH not running from crisis to crisis, perhaps Romania doesn't join the Entente?

 

[TRH]

The OTL campaign took six weeks, and if the TTL entry is November, then winter will have set in before it's over. That delay could hurt. Certainly gives the Serbs time to dig in more, rather than getting blindsided and constantly on the back foot like OTL's campaign.

Of course, it Austria-Hungary doesn't spend winter 1914-15 trying to relieve Przemysl, thanks to the POD, then that probably outweighs whatever additional difficulties the Bulgarians have, and possibly wins the war by itself. That crippled the KuK more than most people realize, AIUI.

 

[Tom_B]

Serbia was badly weakened by epidemics starting Feb 1915. By the time of the OTL Oct offensive they had partially recovered. A spring offensive would find them at their maximum weakness. The biggest priority in the OTL offensive was opening the rail route to send munitions to the OE because of Gallipoli. In a spring offensive trapping and destroying the Serb army would be a higher priority.

The Ottomans concentrated much of the army in Thrace at the beginning of the war. This was mostly to counter the threat of Bulgaria entering the war against them. Once the Bulgarians enter the war as allies that threat disappears and most of the divisions in Thrace can be used elsewhere.

 

[Halagaz]

Really? I keep hearing that the Serbs agreed to cede diddly, and why would Greece agree to give the Bulgarians territory to join a side they themselves wouldn't join until the war was almost over?

Well Germany's WWI diplomacy was bunk. They really could have done so much more, in so many areas.
Anyhow, Greece and Serbia were dead opposed to the territories that Bulgaria really wanted. That coupled with AH not doing well anywhere. Give them no spectacular failures. Perhaps no route and losing Galacia? That would inspire a bit more confidence.

Greece agreed to cede Kavalla. The general idea was that they would be compensated with certain Greek-inhabited lands of the Ottoman Empire.
The chief reason Greece would join so late was the schism between the pro-CP King and the pro-Entente elected Prime Minister.

Serbia was slightly more stubborn but they also agreed to cede the western half of the contested territories to Bulgaria, and there were people in the Serbian government who would have been willing to give up even more.

Anyhow, could we please talk about the WI. This isn't ASB, and I hate getting bogged down in nit picky details. I would like to discuss what the impact would be

Probably no Macedonian front. The Serbian army will probably retreat to the Albanian coastlands, but just end up being evacuated to Italy or something.

Generally I wouldn't rely on A-H doing significantly better as a PoD. They were just too embarrassing in too many ways.

 

[elkarlo]

The OTL campaign took six weeks, and if the TTL entry is November, then winter will have set in before it's over. That delay could hurt. Certainly gives the Serbs time to dig in more, rather than getting blindsided and constantly on the back foot like OTL's campaign.

Of course, it Austria-Hungary doesn't spend winter 1914-15 trying to relieve Przemysl, thanks to the POD, then that probably outweighs whatever additional difficulties the Bulgarians have, and possibly wins the war by itself. That crippled the KuK more than most people realize, AIUI.

True. I wanted to make a POD that changed little, save for Bulgaria's earlier entry. Yes, if the KuK was saved pre Bulgaria's entry, that basically wins the war for the CP.

 

[elkarlo]

Serbia was badly weakened by epidemics starting Feb 1915. By the time of the OTL Oct offensive they had partially recovered. A spring offensive would find them at their maximum weakness. The biggest priority in the OTL offensive was opening the rail route to send munitions to the OE because of Gallipoli. In a spring offensive trapping and destroying the Serb army would be a higher priority.

The Ottomans concentrated much of the army in Thrace at the beginning of the war. This was mostly to counter the threat of Bulgaria entering the war against them. Once the Bulgarians enter the war as allies that threat disappears and most of the divisions in Thrace can be used elsewhere.

True, Serbia was basically putting it's all into the military, and was suffering badly on the home front because of it. So I guess Serbia would be in even worse shape, as the Entente materials hadn't been received in large quantities yet.

I think the Ottomans having their troops elsewhere would be worse for them. As their ability to attack outside of their borders in Asia were bad, at best. They could send more men to die in the Sinai or in the Mts of the Caucasus?

 

[elkarlo]

Greece agreed to cede Kavalla. The general idea was that they would be compensated with certain Greek-inhabited lands of the Ottoman Empire.
The chief reason Greece would join so late was the schism between the pro-CP King and the pro-Entente elected Prime Minister.

Serbia was slightly more stubborn but they also agreed to cede the western half of the contested territories to Bulgaria, and there were people in the Serbian government who would have been willing to give up even more.


Probably no Macedonian front. The Serbian army will probably retreat to the Albanian coastlands, but just end up being evacuated to Italy or something.

Generally I wouldn't rely on A-H doing significantly better as a PoD. They were just too embarrassing in too many ways.

Yes, the border corrections and what not were complicated, but the ones who didn't want to give much, ended up winning/making sure nothing got done OTL

I wonder what no Macedonian front would mean? As it was sucha CF for the Entente.

Poor KuK, they lost so many battles, yet hung in so long. Was tragic really.

 

[Tom_B]

True, Serbia was basically putting it's all into the military, and was suffering badly on the home front because of it. So I guess Serbia would be in even worse shape, as the Entente materials hadn't been received in large quantities yet.

I think the Ottomans having their troops elsewhere would be worse for them. As their ability to attack outside of their borders in Asia were bad, at best. They could send more men to die in the Sinai or in the Mts of the Caucasus?

The not very well known 1915 battles in Caucasia turned out to be rather mixed OTL even though the Russians had superiority in both manpower and firepower and Yudenich is regarded as one of their better commanders.

However with Gallipoli highly unlikely there is a good chance that Kitchener will try landing at Alexandretta and that gets complicated esp. if the divisions in Thrace (Ottoman First and Second Armies) are readily available.

 

[LordKalvert]

In the early negotiations for Bulgaria to join the war, the Bulgarians made the small demand that Germany beat France first. Essentially, they wanted to be sure they were on the winning side Given this attitude, its hard to see what could induce the Bulgarians to join any earlier

Its the same with Italy and Romania. The only way to get earlier declarations from the minors is to do better on the battlefield.

 

[elkarlo]

In the early negotiations for Bulgaria to join the war, the Bulgarians made the small demand that Germany beat France first. Essentially, they wanted to be sure they were on the winning side Given this attitude, its hard to see what could induce the Bulgarians to join any earlier

Its the same with Italy and Romania. The only way to get earlier declarations from the minors is to do better on the battlefield.

But The Germans never did beat the French, and the Bulgarians joined anyhow.

I guess if the PM Radoslavov had a bit more power/sway, he could ahve gotten Bulgaria in much sooner IMHO

 

[LordKalvert]

But The Germans never did beat the French, and the Bulgarians joined anyhow.

I guess if the PM Radoslavov had a bit more power/sway, he could ahve gotten Bulgaria in much sooner IMHO

True, but the Bulgarians appeared satisfied with the Turks joining the war and the Austro-Germans bashing the Russians pretty badly The Bulgarians were trying to join the winning side. They guessed wrong but at the time it didn't appear to be a bad bet

The key to getting any of the neutrals to join earlier is the battlefield more than anything else. If you can convince people that your going to win, they will leap at the chance at some spoils. If they think your going to lose, then any offer you make is worthless

 

[yourworstnightmare]

True, but the Bulgarians appeared satisfied with the Turks joining the war and the Austro-Germans bashing the Russians pretty badly The Bulgarians were trying to join the winning side. They guessed wrong but at the time it didn't appear to be a bad bet

The key to getting any of the neutrals to join earlier is the battlefield more than anything else. If you can convince people that your going to win, they will leap at the chance at some spoils. If they think your going to lose, then any offer you make is worthless

True, many of the countries that were neutral at the start of the war were trying to a) guess the Winner b) see who offered them most.
A will Always triumph since none want to be on the losing side, but B is also important (greed sometimes makes one blind to the facts).