I really like the chart for the relative sizes of the European navies.
In this scenario, A-H has the following dreadnoughts:
SMS Erzherzog Franz Ferdinand
SMS Radetzky
SMS Zrínyi
SMS Viribus Unitis
SMS Tegetthoff
SMS Prinz Eugen
SMS Szent István (I'm guessing she would be completed earlier)
Wouldn't this give A-H 7 dreadnoughts, rather than 6?
Also, just throwing out a few ship name ideas:
SMS Lissa (If the Italians stay with the CP, they likely won't care for this)
SMS Hunyadi
SMS Laudon (the Germans probably won't like this or the one below)
SMS Graf Daun
SMS Don Juan d'Austria
SMS Kaiser Josef II
SMS Donau
We need more Hungarian names. Especially with a bigger Hungarian contribution. Maybe more Bohemian or Croatian names?
Extra Austrian names:
SMS Erzherzog Karl (of Napoleonic Wars fame)
SMS [Prinz zu] Schwarzenberg (see above)
SMS [Prinz zu] Liechtenstein (House Liechtestein served the Habsburgs faithfully for centuries. Joseph Wenzel I, oft-forgotten, reformed the artillery in the 18th century)
I feel like SMS Donau is out of place. River names were reserved for the Danube Flotilla (minus Donau itself admittedly).
Hungarian names:
SMS Esterházy (doubt I need to explain that one)
SMS Pálffy Miklos, Pálffy János, or just Pálffy (brothers, Palatines of Hungary and Imperial Field Marshalls in the 18th century; fought in the liberation, helped pass the Pragmatic Sanction and negotiated the end of the war with Rakocsi)
SMS József nádor (Archduke Joseph, popular Palatine ("the most Hungarian Habsburg"), held that office during the Reform Diets)
SMS Hadik András (my personal favourite, 18th century hussar general that sacked Berlin during the Seven Years' War)
Other ethnicities:
SMS Svatý Václav (Good King Wenceslaus, patron saint of Bohemia. Basically Czech equivalent of Szent István)
SMS Kralj Tomislav (first King of Croatia, Croat equivalent of Szent István without thr sainthood)
SMS Montecuccoli (Raimondo Montecuccoli was an Imperial Field Marshall from Italy. His descendent, Rudolf, was head of the KuKKM and, erm,
ensured the construction of A-H's first dreadnoughts)
I can probably think of more, but I'll stop for now because I want to share my idea. Especially about the potential alt-1848.
If everything “stays the same” until 1900-10 (highly unlikely, IMO) then I can’t see a “more powerful” (higher population, more industry) Hungary being less of a problem internally for A-H. At the least the Russian intervention in 1848 is going to be more bloody if there are more Hungarians fighting for independence, surely?
I would disagree here, although perhaps that's because the war for independence was completely avoidable iOTL, I find that it has an even better chance of not happening iTTL at all- at least, not like OTL.
I'm basing this on the vague ideas from the thread that make Hungary more stable and prosperous: Less bloody Turkish Wars and liberation, perhaps Hungarian grievances in the 18th century are addressed earlier, no inner customs barriers and, more importantly, even more successful Reform Diets and economic boom pre-1848 thanks to the changes in the 18th century. Serfdom is also abolished earlier (more succesful Joseph II? Leopold II? The Hungarian magnates themselves thanks to the better economy?)
To put a bit more detail: A lot of the issues that led to the Revolution are internal. For example, one of the bigger issues of the Reform Diets was the reform of the county government. By the 19th century, they were controlled by the magnates and quite corrupt. To the point where the government in Vienna intervened and appointed paralleled county governments under their control to counter the issues. When the reform diets finally modernised the county governments, however, Vienna didn't pull out their... arguably illegal (according to the Liberals) appointees, leading to tensions and growing hostility towards perceived meddling from the undemocratic
kamarilla.
Say that the county governments are reformed earlier and at a slower pace thanks to a growing middle class in towns and a generally more propserous country, Vienna may never have to meddle in the Hungarian counties, butterflying the issue altogether.
Abolishing serfom earlier is also pretty important for Hungary's prosperity in the 19th century. iOTL, the magnates' dependence on
slave labour an abnormally-high number of serfs severely gimped economic growth and progress and kept the countryside overpopulated and seriously poor (an issue that lingered into the 1920s and maybe even 30s). Force the magnates to move away from their attrociously inefficient economies earlier will really help the Hungarian economy and boost the OTL growth in the first half of the 19th century, helping Hungary industrialise at a closer pace to Austria and Bohemia.
Speaking of them, they are bound to prosper as well thanks to a healthier Hungarian economy and competition as the crownlands industralise. This is bound to strengthen the middle class and, inadvertently, Liberalism. A stronger liberal movement in Austria could potentially change things drastically, but for the sake of getting the Ausgleich to happen in 1867, we can't go too crazy.
With that in mind, here's my idea for TTL's 1848 Revolution.
As per OTL, the event that started it all was the French Revolution of 1848. However, what led to violence erupting and an actual revolution to happen was a run to the banks in Vienna as panic spread. People expected serious economic problems if Second French Revolutionary War happened. Panic eventually led to demonstrations and Metternich is abandonned and forced to resign. As per OTL, Kolowrat succeeds him briefly. However, the liberal government that forms after him is a little more stable iTTL; perhaps Pillersdorf becomes Minister-President earlier? By the end of the year, Austria has a consitution similar to the March '49 constitution (i.e. powerful Emperor that makes final decisions and heads military and foreign affairs, bicameral Reichstag, provincial diets maintained, no customs barriers enshrined), Good Ferdinand retires and Franz Joseph succeeds him.
Of course, while this happens, the Hungarians are already doing its own thing. By the time the Austrians are forming their first liberal government, the Hungarians already have responsible government. The liberals in Vienna are just as, if not more, impressed by the Hungarian reformers and are happily allowed their reforms based on Deák's *Ten Points (would be less because Serfdom is already gone), slightly different than Kossuth's 12 points and the April Laws, as it excludes the National Army and Bank.
Jellačić still leads his rebellion against the Hungarians. The clusterfuck that followed was what led to war between Austria and Hungary iOTL. However, because the government in Vienna is more stable and they are just as initially hostile to him as OTL (if not more), their orders a more clear than iOTL not to meddle in the affair. Nevertheless, the Hungarian-Croatian conflict remains a stalemate with Vienna implicitly supporting Buda-Pest (which is OTL, by the way, until the Kamarilla regained power and von Lamberg's murder, both butterflied iTTL). Eventually, as the Hungarian radicals call for further autonomy/independence and a national army to fight the Croats, the Liberal government in Vienna to broker a peace between Buda-Pest and Zagreb, seeing the writing on the wall that if things escalate further, the Empire and constitutional experiment would crumble. The following are decided:
- Croatia remains part of Hungary (as a Land of the Holy Crown of Saint Stephen)
- Croatian autonomy is guaranteed, with the Sabor maintained
- Croatia, Slavonia and Dalmatia (thanks to pressure from Dalmatian delegates to the Reichstag) are merged into the Triune Kingdom of Croatia-Slavonia-Dalmatia (which means Hungary de jure gains Dalmatia)
- The Military Frontier is partitioned: Lands south of the Danube and Drava to Croatia, north to Hungary
- ... Something about the appointment of the Ban. What would be more acceptable for all sides? Buda-Pest appointing a largely-ceremonial Ban? The King (Emperor) appointing him directly? The Sabor?
- Something about delegates to the Hungarian Diet or the Reichstag. I feel like the latter isn't really possible in '48/49. Would the Hungarians accept Croatian delegates if they are autonomous?
In other words, the OTL Croat-Hungarian settlement happens during the Revolutions and Austria-Hungary exists in all but name by 1849! Well, not really:
There's one problem. The Austrian constitution would likely include Hungary as part of the Empire, clashing with the *April Laws. The Hungarians would be unwilling to reverse the hard-gained reforms, with radicals calling for even more autonomy or outright independence. While this sounds a lot like the Ausgleich structure, it's not: There are no common ministries and K.u.K. Ministerial Council (yet), meaning that the Hungarians have no say in foreign and military affairs (neither do the Austrians, but that's besides the point). However, because neither sides are willing to either compromise (Hungary doesn't want to subordinate itself to Vienna again (yet) and Austria doesn't want to let Hungary have its own army and foreign policy) and war not being an option, an awkward status quo exists after 1849.
I made sure to avoid the Hungarian War of Independence because I believe the '49-'67 period seriously delayed economic, cultural and political growth, leading to the horribly static political situation in Hungary of 1890-1919, serious growth inequalities and Magyarisation policies/unwillingness to enforce the Minorities' Law. Without the war, the Martyrs of Arad and with liberal, reformist traditions taking deeper root in Hungary, maybe the shift towards further and more radical nationalism can be reduced, economic growth can continue without military occupation and the dominance of the magnates. Plus, that means Batthyány doesn't get his undeserved execution, and that makes me happy.
The period between '49 and '67 is an awkward one. While Austria is victorious in Italy and Prussia is put back to its place as per OTL, the constitutional experiment sort-of stalls in Austria while the Hungarian Liberals are divided: Batthyány, Széchenyi and Deák are dominant figures in the 'moderate' wing of the party, maintaining the status quo and personal union with Austria. Opposing them are the Radicals, perhaps led by Petőfi, calling for full-independence and 'finishing the revolution'. Between them is the charismatic Kossuth calling for even further autonomy (national army, contol of Hungarian regiments, national bank). There's also a growing Conservative Party led by Count Apponyi (for they too have been growing in strength as the democratic system entrenches itself) forming the main non-liberal opposition, pushing for finally sending its delegates to Vienna.
Austria is just as politically divided. Liberals are divided by "centralist" (or German) liberals and "federalist" liberals. Obviously, the issue at hand is centralisation vs. decentralisation and "staatenrechte" (because, yes, States' Rights was an Austrian issue too). Just like in Hungary, the conservatives are growing, too, as the liberals appear more and more divided. The reactionaries/Neoabsolutists are, however, severely weaker without OTL's constitutional failures and the kamarilla's influence on FJ.
Basically, TTL's status quo replaces OTL Neoabsolutism and Military occupation, serving as the justification for the political stagnation in "Austria-Hungary" until 1867 without interrupting the economic growth like OTL did. I can see attempts to solve the issues in the early 1860s failing as per OTL with the Hungarians refusing to cooperate (with some Austrians even calling for a customs barrier to be enacted and a trade war against Hungary, but shut down for being unconstitutional). Despite the stronger economy, "Austria-Hungary" still isn't able to replace Radetzky, Franz Joseph still proves himself to be a sub-par military commander and, as much as I want to save Benedek's reputation, Austria still loses against the Prussians, leading to the Ausgleich of 1867.
I want to keep going, but it's 3:00 and I've been at this for over 4 hours. I'll continue after some feedback. I did also spoil some of my plans for my own TL. Whoops.