WI Buchanan won NH in 92

How can Pat Buchanan win the 1992 New Hampshire primary, and what would the effects on the election be? Could this have a similar effect as 1968, leading Bush not to seek re-election?
 
^^Mind you, winning NH far from guarantees Buchanan from winning the nomination -- at most, he may push Bush to not seek re-election, but then Quayle or some other challenger would be far more likely to get that honor...
 
Buchanan won't win the nomination. I don't see Poppa Bush dropping out of the race unless he's made some sort of huge blunder, like driving on to Baghdad. If that's the case, Bob Dole probably enters the race and a few other candidates do as well to prevent Buchanan from getting the nomination.
 
^^So, if Buchanan wins New Hampshire, it essentially has no effect? Remember, I'm not asking if Buchanan can win the nomination (I agree he cannot), but how the race is affected if he wins New Hampshire.

It may be that's nothing more than Bush spending more resources just securing said nomination -- but it could also mean he realizes his chances are now slim, and looks to just make sure Pat's not his potential successor. I can see, in this scenario, a three way race between Buchanan (who likely does get some national boost), Quayle (who's... well, Dan Quayle), and Dole (or some other Republican filling the same niche)...
 
With primary filing deadlines nobody can replace Bush. I think Budg wouldfight on and drop out only if he suffered more defeats.
 
Then there's the question of who replaces him. Buchanan scares people, Quayle isn't presidential timber and Bush beat Dole in '88. Maybe James Baker?
 
Then there's the question of who replaces him. Buchanan scares people, Quayle isn't presidential timber and Bush beat Dole in '88. Maybe James Baker?

I think Jack Kemp would be a good choice, a strong conservative who no one could accuse of being a crazy.
 
I think Jack Kemp would be a good choice, a strong conservative who no one could accuse of being a crazy

Really? He believed in voodoo economics. I think that says it all. Dole would be the one to get the nomination if Senior Bush dropped out.
 
Really? He believed in voodoo economics. I think that says it all. Dole would be the one to get the nomination if Senior Bush dropped out.

OK, we could argue the merits of supply-side, but that's not the point. The point is he was a conservative you no one could accuse of being a radical by the standpoint of the time. He could portray himself as a successor to Reagan, but would have the extra bonus that he was popular with minorities and was far more charismatic than anyone in the field.

This is all a mute point, however, because even if Buchanan wins NH, this ain't 1968: Bush's reelection team gets shocked out of complacency, is kicked into overdrive, and Bush wins the remainder of the primaries.
 
Once again the filing deadlines for primaries makes it nearly impossible for anyone to replaceBush.

So either he resigns the Presidency and Quayle steps into his shoes, or he decides to withdraw from the race and finish his one term, in which case Buchanan wins by default. In either case, he's basically handed the White House over to the Democrats as a free gift.

This raises an interesting possibility. Not the least of reasons Clinton was nominated was that he was seen as more centrist than the other Democrats, hence more electable. If the Democrats had known their candidate was guaranteed to win, might they not have chosen someone more liberal, like Jerry Brown or Paul Tsongas?
 
I'm not sure I'd call Paul Tsongas the more liberal candidate. Based on what I know of him, which admittedly isn't much, Tsongas was to the right of then Governor Clinton on fiscal issues.
 
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