WI Brutus and Cassius won the civil war against Octavian and the Second Triumvirate?

BigDave1967

Banned
What if Brutus and Cassius defeated Octavian and the second triumvirate in the roman civil war? I think the republic would have stayed as it was in the short term. The republican form of government the romans had then was(IMO)less suited to running a vast empire than that of an absolute Monarchy. I think sooner or later somebody else would crown themselves emperor of the roman Empire.
 
I'd agree with the fundamental prediction in spirit, though not with the specific term 'emperor' (by which I presume you mean imperator, Augustus, Caesar and/or princeps). With the Marian reforms the potential for a popular and successful general to take power via populism is too great to not happen at some point, unless the Republic shifts away from its anti-populist aristocratic conservatism… which is the precise opposite of what would happen in any TL where the liberatores win. And the liberatores' victory won't prevent any ambitious generals in the future from looking at the history of Julius Caesar (that is, the one commonly known as Julius Caesar, not Augustus) and thinking He managed it (if not for the assassination) so why can't I
 
Well here's the thing-it would likely last for that generation-there really isn't any strongman populares man who is left at this point-after that though, you'll probably see similar upheavals like those seen post-Sullan civil war.
 
If the Republicans win Roman civil wars, we could predict about federationizations of the Roman empire. The far and hard to occupy lands will either rebel, or put under loose federations of client kings answer theoritically to Rome. The provincial governors will demand more independence so in effect they will end up as their own republics. Ambitious generals may attempt to pull a Caesar again, but the senate will be much more careful this time if they learned from history. Long story short, we can expect Rome ti evolve into a kind of aristocratic federal republic.
 
IMO? Civil War after civil war, ending finally in Vespacian Caesar establishing the Flavian Dynasty. He was no Otho or Galba. Vespacian was the only powerful general of his day post-Augustus to gain power and then rule benevolently.​
 

Dirk

Banned
IMO? Civil War after civil war, ending finally in Vespacian Caesar establishing the Flavian Dynasty. He was no Otho or Galba. Vespacian was the only powerful general of his day post-Augustus to gain power and then rule benevolently.​

What? It's approximately 100% certain that Vespasian will never be born.

As for the OP, first you need a POD in which the Liberatores somehow manage to win.... Octavian/Antony shipwreck is possible, though their cronies and legates would then assume power, knowing to expect no mercy from Brutus and Cassius.

An eventual win for the Liberatores and their political philosophy would result in an end of the Roman Empire (by which I mean its control of vast and culturally varied overseas provinces). They would put very tight leashes on all their governors and watch each other warily while allowing the grave abuses of the publicani tax system to continue in the provinces, thus fomenting revolt which the militarily untalented and unequipped governors would have no chance of handling.

So Rome is effectively reduced to Italy and a few isolated cities. Client kings that are more like bandit lords or even real kings might pay lip service to Roman supremacy, but they would fight each other and probably end up ignoring Rome completely.
 
What? It's approximately 100% certain that Vespasian will never be born.

As for the OP, first you need a POD in which the Liberatores somehow manage to win.... Octavian/Antony shipwreck is possible, though their cronies and legates would then assume power, knowing to expect no mercy from Brutus and Cassius.

An eventual win for the Liberatores and their political philosophy would result in an end of the Roman Empire (by which I mean its control of vast and culturally varied overseas provinces). They would put very tight leashes on all their governors and watch each other warily while allowing the grave abuses of the publicani tax system to continue in the provinces, thus fomenting revolt which the militarily untalented and unequipped governors would have no chance of handling.

So Rome is effectively reduced to Italy and a few isolated cities. Client kings that are more like bandit lords or even real kings might pay lip service to Roman supremacy, but they would fight each other and probably end up ignoring Rome completely.


Yeah no. First to winning: It's not that difficult for the liberatores to win-the challenge was for the triumvirs to win-they were at a complete disadvantage. The liberatores won the first day of the battle handily, and then destroyed a navy carrying supplies and reinforcements for the triumvirs. So just keep Cassius from killing himself (since he was the only one with military experience) and the triumvirs should be easily destroyed.

Now on to the rest. There's absolutely no reason to assume the liberatores are somehow all of a sudden going to become ultra strict on the governors-first that assumes that the senate is behind this, which they most certainly won't because A: They profit off of the extortion immensely and B: The equites (whom the publicani were drawn from) would have none of it either. It also assumes that the liberatores themselves would want this: Which just doesn't make sense since Brutus and Cassius and the others were oligarchic senators to the core who wanted to keep the system functioning as is: i.e. in a way they and the other senators benefited immensely from.


The most provincial governing reform you could see is a revival of the lex pompeia of 52 BC which put a 5 year gap between someone serving an office and then going on to serve as pro-praetor or pro-consul. This never actually got off the ground, because of the unrest and civil war but it could make a return. It would be helpful if it did, since a lot of the extortion was a result of the political candidates taking out enormous loans to finance their campaigns with the expectation they could pay it back and then some the following year when they got their governorship. That's going to change if they know they won't be governing anything for 5 years.

So no, this is not going to result in anything dramatic like a breakdown of the entire Roman system to the point where they only control Italy. It will result in the republic merely limping on for another generation until the next round of civil strife catches up with it.
 
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