WI: Bruneian-Japanese War

What if the Japanese and Bruneians had a war because of their ambition to add Luzon/Selurong to their respective spheres of influences, what if the Japanese supported Gambang, the last King of the Tondo Dynasty on the late 15th century against the Bolkiahs causing Japan to war with Brunei?

Who would win if such war happened?
 
IIRC, wasn't conquest of the Ryukyu islands, Taiwan, and the Philippines, floated as a potential alternative to Hideyoshi's attempted conquest of Korea?

Of course, your POD is about a century earlier, before the Spanish contact and the main reasons why the Philippines were of interest to the Japanese hadn't materialized yet. So, then, the big question, I guess, is why Japan wants the Philippines.
 
IIRC, wasn't conquest of the Ryukyu islands, Taiwan, and the Philippines, floated as a potential alternative to Hideyoshi's attempted conquest of Korea?

Of course, your POD is about a century earlier, before the Spanish contact and the main reasons why the Philippines were of interest to the Japanese hadn't materialized yet. So, then, the big question, I guess, is why Japan wants the Philippines.
The Spice trade, other goods from Maritime South East Asia and the maintainance of the Japanese trading bases in Luzon could be a motivation for them to aid Gambang.

Gambang warred with Bolkiah because Bolkiah wanted Manila in order to tap trade with China but Gambang does not want to relinquish it which led to the extinction of the Tondo Dynasty.


Actually, to be exact this occurred a few decades before Magellan arrived, Luzon became under Bruneian Influence due to the defeat of Gambang, the (defacto)ruler of Ma-I who ruled Central Luzon and Metro Manila directly since the japanese has trading bases like Aparri in Luzon, they could help Gambang against Ragam Bolkiah in order to make Luzon* an ally or a Japanese client state.

If the Japanese aided Gambang in exchange of his allegiance to Japan could they defeat Bolkiah? what would be the longterm consequences of this if they defeat Bolkiah?
 
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katchen

Banned
This is all news to me. The 14th Century was the Muromachi Period in Japan, the Time of Battles. The Ashikaga Shogunate, to my knowledge was degenerating into warring states. So which Japanese from which daimyo set up that trading depot in Aparri? And how much strength might they be able to draw upon in Japan, since if we are talking 15th Century (1400s) we are talking pre Oda Nobonaga and pre Japanese reunification. At most, we are looking at one daimyo operating on his own or a coalition of daimyo.
Frankly if you were looking for a strong maritime power to fight with Tondo against Brunei, you might want asess Korea, which at least was unified.
Then again, some of the larger Japanese daimyo like the Shimizu in southern Kyshu, the Hosokawa in Shikoku, and the Mori in Chugoku (Western Honshu) controlled the taxes of a lot of Japanese peasants in the 14th Century. Some of these outer daimyo might have found expansion into Tondo useful if the taxes from Tondo peasants would enable them to provide for more samurai that they might attract into their service than their Japanese fief alone would provide.
Of course that would be a butterfly in itself that would change the balance of power between the daimyo in Japan as much as it would the balance of power in the East Indies. So study the history of the 14th and 15th Century in Japan and find out where in Japan those Japanese who built that depot in Aapari came from.
Once you have that, this will be one of the most interesting TLs we have seen in a long while. One that will make maritime East Asia look a lot like Europe at the same time or somewhat later.
 
This is all news to me. The 14th Century was the Muromachi Period in Japan, the Time of Battles. The Ashikaga Shogunate, to my knowledge was degenerating into warring states. So which Japanese from which daimyo set up that trading depot in Aparri? And how much strength might they be able to draw upon in Japan, since if we are talking 15th Century (1400s) we are talking pre Oda Nobonaga and pre Japanese reunification. At most, we are looking at one daimyo operating on his own or a coalition of daimyo.
Frankly if you were looking for a strong maritime power to fight with Tondo against Brunei, you might want asess Korea, which at least was unified.
Then again, some of the larger Japanese daimyo like the Shimizu in southern Kyshu, the Hosokawa in Shikoku, and the Mori in Chugoku (Western Honshu) controlled the taxes of a lot of Japanese peasants in the 14th Century. Some of these outer daimyo might have found expansion into Tondo useful if the taxes from Tondo peasants would enable them to provide for more samurai that they might attract into their service than their Japanese fief alone would provide.
Of course that would be a butterfly in itself that would change the balance of power between the daimyo in Japan as much as it would the balance of power in the East Indies. So study the history of the 14th and 15th Century in Japan and find out where in Japan those Japanese who built that depot in Aapari came from.
Once you have that, this will be one of the most interesting TLs we have seen in a long while. One that will make maritime East Asia look a lot like Europe at the same time or somewhat later.
Perhaps an earlier Japanese unification could be a second POD for this..

Actually, Tondo can't survive a war on late 15th century without an aid from any nearby power so I think a Japanese intervention in that war could save them from the hands of the Bruneians
 
I suspect that such a war would most likely result in the local kingdoms eventually defeating the Japanese or perhaps just fighting them until they give up and leave.
 
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katchen

Banned
The Shimazu of Satsuma in the South of Japan would be the logical people for the Tondo to approach. And through them, the Tondo could make obeisances to the Emperor (Ten no) and establish tributary relations and an alliance based on the precedent of Japan's ( and Shimazu's) control of some of the Ryukyu Islands.

What Tondo would have to offer the Shimazu (if fully conquered) would be considerable based on kokutada,K okudaka (from Wikipedia) (石高?) refers to a system for determining land value for taxation purposes in Edo period Japan and expressing this value in koku of rice.[1]
One 'koku' was generally viewed as the equivalent of enough rice to feed one person for a year. The amount taxation was not based on the actual quantity of rice harvested[Name?], but was assessed based on the quality and size of the land. The system was used to value the incomes of daimyo, or feudal rulers, as well as to value the homes and fields of landowners.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kokudaka#cite_note-nussbaum549-1
By this measurement alone, Tondo would greatly interest Shimazu, since in the Philippines, 3 crops of rice per year can be grown. Shimazu was basically stuck in Satsuma Province at the Southern end of Japan, and severely limited in competition with other daimyo for land and resources. But Shimazu, having Satsuma, has this traditional outlet to islands to the South which may well be stretchable to include Tondo or even the entire Philippines itself. Granted, Tondo would be trading one master for another. But from what you are telling me, Tondo people might well find Shimazu less oppresive than Brunei. And by the time Japan reunified, completely, (early 1600s OTL) enough time might have elapsed for Philippines to be considered part of Japan.


Satsuma Domain (薩摩藩, Satsuma-han?), also known as Kagoshima Domain, was a Japanese domain of the Edo period. It is associated with the provinces of Satsuma, Osumi and Hyūga in modern-day Kagoshima prefecture and Miyazaki prefecture on the island of Kyūshū.
In the han system, Satsuma was a political and economic abstraction based on periodic cadastral surveys and projected agricultural yields.[1] In other words, the domain was defined in terms of kokudaka, not land area.[2] This was different from the feudalism of the West.
The domain was ruled from Kagoshima Castle in Kagoshima city. Its kokudaka was assessed at 770,000 koku, the second highest kokudaka after that of Kaga Domain.[3]

[edit] History

The Shimazu family controlled Satsuma province for roughly four centuries prior to the beginning of the Edo period. Despite being chastised by Toyotomi Hideyoshi in his 1587 Kyūshū Campaign, and forced back to Satsuma, they remained one of the most powerful clans in the archipelago. During the decisive battle of Sekigaharain 1600, the Shimazu fought on the losing side. Satsuma was one of the most powerful feudal domains in Tokugawa Japan. It was controlled throughout the Edo period by the tozama daimyō of the Shimazu clan.
[edit] Ryukyu


Map showing southern Kyushu and Ryukyu islands, 1781


In 1609, the Shimazu requested permission from the shogunate to invade the Ryūkyū Kingdom which lay to its south. After a brief invasion which met little resistance, Satsuma seized a number of the Ryukyu Islands, annexing them to the han, and claimed the Ryūkyū Kingdom as a vassal state. For the remainder of the Edo period, Satsuma exacted tribute from Ryukyu, influenced their politics, and dominated their trading policies. As strict maritime prohibitions were imposed upon much of Japan beginning in the 1630s, Satsuma's ability to enjoy a trade in Chinese goods, and information, via Ryukyu, provided it a distinct and important, if not entirely unique, role in the overall economy and politics of the Tokugawa state. The degree of economic benefits enjoyed by Satsuma, and the degree of their oppression of Ryukyu, are subjects debated by scholars, but the political prestige and influence gained through this relationship is not questioned. The Shimazu continually made efforts to emphasize their unique position as the only feudal domain to claim an entire foreign kingdom as its vassal, and engineered repeated increases to their own official Court rank, in the name of maintaining their power and prestige in the eyes of Ryukyu.
from wikipedia Ryukyu Islands History

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryukyu_Islands#cite_note-haraguchi1999-19

The island chain appeared in written history as Japan's Southern Islands (南島, Minamishima?). The first record of the Southern Islands is an article of 618 in the Nihonshoki (720) which states that people of Yaku (掖玖, 夜勾?) followed the emperor's virtue. In 629 the imperial court dispatched an expedition to Yaku. Yaku in historical sources was not limited to modern-day Yakushima but seems to have covered a broader area of the island chain. In 657, several persons from Tokara (都貨邏?, possibly Dvaravati) arrived at Kyushu, reporting that they had first drifted to Amami Island (海見島, Amamijima?), which is the first attested use of Amami.[18]
Articles of the late 7th century give a closer look at the southern islands. In 677, the imperial court gave a banquet to people from Tane Island (多禰島, Tanejima?). In 679 the imperial court sent a mission to Tane Island. The mission carried some peoples from the southern islands who were described as the peoples of Tane, Yaku, and Amami (阿麻弥?) in the article of 682. According to the Shoku Nihongi (797), the imperial court dispatched armed officers in 698 to explore the southern islands. As a result, people of Tane, Yaku, Amami and Dokan visited the capital to pay tribute in the next year. Historians identify Dokan as Tokunoshima of the Amami Islands. An article of 714 reports that an investigative team returned to the capital, together with people of Amami, Shigaki (信覚?), and Kumi (球美?) among others. Shigaki should be Ishigaki Island of the Yaeyama Islands. Some identify Kumi as Iriomote Island of the Yaeyama Islands because Komi is an older name for Iriomote. Others consider that Kumi corresponded to Kume Island of the Okinawa Islands. Around this time "Southern Islands" replaced Yaku as a collective name for the southern islands.[18]
In the early 8th century the northern end of the island chain was formally incorporated into the Japanese administrative system. After a rebellion was crushed, Tane Province was established around 702. Tane Province consisted of four districts and covered Tanegashima and Yakushima. Although the tiny province faced financial difficulties from the very beginning, it was maintained until 824 when it was merged into Ōsumi Province.[19]
Ancient Japan's commitment to the southern islands is attributed to ideological and strategic factors. Japan applied to herself the Chinese ideology of emperorship that required "barbarian people" who longed for the great virtue of the emperor. Thus Japan treated people on its periphery as "barbarians," i.e., the Emishi to the east and the Hayato and the Southern Islanders to the south. The imperial court brought some of them to the capital to serve the emperor. The New Book of Tang (1060) states at the end of the chapter of Japan that there were three little princes of Yaku (邪古?), Haya (波邪?), and Tane (多尼?). This statement should have based on a report by Japanese envoys in the early 8th century who would have claimed the Japanese emperor's virtue. At the site of Dazaifu, the administrative center of Kyushu, two wooden tags dated in the early 8th century were unearthed in 1984, which read "Amami Island" (㭺美嶋, Amamijima?) and "Iran Island" (伊藍嶋, Iran no Shima?) respectively. The latter seems to correspond to Okinoerabu Island. These tags might have been attached to "red woods", which, according to the Engishiki (927), Dazaifu was to offer when they were obtained from the southern islands.[18]


Koremune no Tadahisa, a retainer of the Fujiwara family, was appointed as a steward of Shimazu Estate in 1185. He was then named shugo of Satsuma and Ōsumi (and later Hyūga) Provinces by first shogun Minamoto no Yoritomo in 1197. He became the founder of the Shimazu clan. Tadahisa lost power when his powerful relative Hiki Yoshikazu was overthrown in 1203. He lost the positions of shugo and jitō and only regained the posts of shugo of Satsuma Province and jitō of the Satsuma portion of Shimazu Estate. The shugo of Ōsumi Province and jitō of the Ōsumi portion of Shimazu Estate, both of which controlled Tanegashima, were succeeded by the Hōjō clan (especially its Nagoe branch). The Nagoe family sent the Higo clan to rule Ōsumi. A branch family of the Higo clan settled in Tanegashima and became the Tanegashima clan.[19]
The islands other than Tanegashima were grouped as the Twelve Islands and treated as part of Kawanabe District, Satsuma Province. The Twelve Islands were subdivided into the Near Five (口五島/端五島, Kuchigoshima/Hajigoshima?) and the Remote Seven (奥七島, Okunanashima?). The Near Five consisted of the Ōsumi Islands except Tanegashima while the Remote Seven corresponded to the Tokara Islands. After the Jōkyū War in 1221, the jitō of Kawanabe District was assumed by the Hōjō Tokusō family. The Tokusō family let its retainer Chikama clan rule Kawanabe District. In 1306, Chikama Tokiie created a set of inheritance documents that made reference to various southern islands. The islands mentioned were not limited to the Twelve but included Amami Ōshima, Kikai Island and Tokunoshima (and possibly Okinoerabu Island) of the Amami Islands. An extant map of Japan held by the Hōjō clan describes Amami as a "privately owned district." The Shimazu clan also claimed the rights to the Twelve. In 1227 Shōgun Kujō Yoritsune affirmed Shimazu Tadayoshi's position as the jitō of the Twelve Islands among others. After the Kamakura shogunate was destroyed, the Shimazu clan increased its rights. In 1364, it claimed the "eighteen islands" of Kawanabe District. In the same year, the clan's head Shimazu Sadahisa gave his son Morohisa properties in Satsuma Province including the Twelve Islands and the "extra five" islands. The latter must be the Amami Islands.[23]
 
I suspect that such a war would most likely result in the local kingdoms eventually defeating the Japanese or perhaps just fighting them until they give up and leave.

The Shimazu of Satsuma in the South of Japan would be the logical people for the Tondo to approach. And through them, the Tondo could make obeisances to the Emperor (Ten no) and establish tributary relations and an alliance based on the precedent of Japan's ( and Shimazu's) control of some of the Ryukyu Islands.

What Tondo would have to offer the Shimazu (if fully conquered) would be considerable based on kokutada,K okudaka (from Wikipedia) (石高?) refers to a system for determining land value for taxation purposes in Edo period Japan and expressing this value in koku of rice.[1]
One 'koku' was generally viewed as the equivalent of enough rice to feed one person for a year. The amount taxation was not based on the actual quantity of rice harvested[Name?], but was assessed based on the quality and size of the land. The system was used to value the incomes of daimyo, or feudal rulers, as well as to value the homes and fields of landowners.[1]


By this measurement alone, Tondo would greatly interest Shimazu, since in the Philippines, 3 crops of rice per year can be grown. Shimazu was basically stuck in Satsuma Province at the Southern end of Japan, and severely limited in competition with other daimyo for land and resources. But Shimazu, having Satsuma, has this traditional outlet to islands to the South which may well be stretchable to include Tondo or even the entire Philippines itself. Granted, Tondo would be trading one master for another. But from what you are telling me, Tondo people might well find Shimazu less oppresive than Brunei. And by the time Japan reunified, completely, (early 1600s OTL) enough time might have elapsed for Philippines to be considered part of Japan.


The Bruneians were interested in Manila so they destroyed the Tondo Dynasty and made their lands as one of their dominions, I think Shimazu making Tondo a tributary and protectorate would stop it from being attacked by the Bruneians and since the Japanese would war with Brunei they will aid Tondo if they had a war because of Manila, who knows it might make the other nearby kingdoms like Sulu make tributary status with Shimazu , I think Sulu is also weary of the Bruneian-Sulu dispute of Palawan.
 

katchen

Banned
Thanks to Thespitron's contribution to our knowledge base, we now know that Japan had a mine of the magnitude of Potosi at Iwami Ginza. The only problem was that ITTL, that mine does not start production until 1526.
However, the Philippines themselves are rich in gold and silver (though silver is often a byproduct of gold production) as the article below demonstrates. Even though most of the precious metals deposits are to be found in Mindanao and Masbate rather than Luzon, where Tondo is. And since there is much artisanal mining in those fiields, much of this gold, silver and copper appears to be readily accessible.
Frankly, it may have been the Philippines precious metals more than anything else which may have motivated Brunei to conquer Tondo in the first place ITTL. Because the Philippines ARE the same excellent transshippment point where Chinese merchants can trade silks and tea and ceramics for silver in the 15th Century that they will be OTTL in the 17th Century. And since the Japanese Wakou pirates have worn out their welcome as traders in China, a transshipment point like that would be the real attraction of Manila for the Shimazu in the 15th Century ITTL the same as it is for the Spanish in the 16th -18th Centuries OTTL. Or for Brunei, which may be battling a reputation for piracy in China of its own, but in any case, needs cold hard cash with which to buy good things made in China as much as Shimazu ruled Satsuma does.
n The Know: The Philippines’ mining industry

Philippine Daily Inquirer 2:06 am | Tuesday, July 10th, 2012


LIGHT IN THE TUNNEL Under EO 79, small-scale miners like the one above in Itogon, Benguet, will be confined to the “Minahan ng Bayan.” They are also banned from using mercury to process the mined ores. RICHARD BALONGLONG / INQUIRER NORTHERN LUZON

Of the country’s total land area of 30 million hectares, some 9 million ha have been identified as having “high mineral potential,” said the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB).
As of January 2012, the bureau estimated that some 3.8 percent (around 1.14 million ha) of the Philippines’ total land area was covered by mining tenements.
As of June 2012, the country had 30 operating metallic mines—18 nickel mines, five gold mines with silver as coproduct, three copper mines with gold and silver as co-products, two chromite mines, a polymetallic mine with gold, silver, copper and zinc as products; and an iron mine, according to the MGB.
In 2011, the country’s total metallic mineral production was worth P122 billion, up from P112 billion in 2010. Gold production for 2011 alone was valued at P63.14 billion.
However, for the first quarter of 2012, data from the MGB showed that metallic mineral production declined from P31.4 billion in the same period last year to P19.6 billion this year.
Nickel mines are located in Zambales, Palawan, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur, while the gold with silver mines are in Benguet, Masbate, Camarines Norte, Davao del Norte and Agusan del Sur.
The copper with gold and silver mines are located in Benguet, Cebu and Zamboanga del Norte. The copper mine with gold, silver and zinc is in Albay, while the metallurgical chromite mines are in Surigao del Norte and Eastern Samar. The iron mine is in Leyte.
Mining contributed 1 percent (P99.2 billion) to the country’s gross domestic product in 2011, according to MGB data.
Investments in exploration and mining projects have amounted to more than $4.4 billion from 2004 to 2011.
The mining industry employs some 238,000 people, said the Department of Labor and Employment.
According to the Environmental Management Bureau, there were around 300,000 small-scale miners in the country as of December 2011. Compiled by Kate Pedroso, Inquirer Research
 
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